Changes in Beliefs Identify Unblinding in Randomized Controlled Trials: A Method to Meet CONSORT Guidelines

Double-blinded trials are often considered the gold standard for research, but significant bias may result from unblinding of participants and investigators. Although the CONSORT guidelines discuss the importance of reporting evidence that blinding was successful , it is unclear what constitutes appropriate evidence. Among studies reporting methods to evaluate blinding effectiveness, many have compared groups with respect to the proportions correctly identifying their intervention at the end of the trial. Instead, we reasoned that participants\u27 beliefs, and not their correctness, are more directly associated with potential bias, especially in relation to self-reported health outcomes. During the Water Evaluation Trial performed in northern California in 1999, we investigated blinding effectiveness by sequential interrogation of participants about their blinded intervention assignment (active or placebo). Irrespective of group, participants showed a strong tendency to believe they had been assigned to the active intervention; this translated into a statistically significant intergroup difference in the correctness of participants\u27 beliefs, even at the start of the trial before unblinding had a chance to occur. In addition, many participants (31%) changed their belief during the trial, suggesting that assessment of belief at a single time does not capture unblinding. Sequential measures based on either two or all eight questionnaires identified significant group-related differences in belief patterns that were not identified by the single, cross-sectional measure. In view of the relative insensitivity of cross-sectional measures, the minimal additional information in more than two assessments of beliefs and the risk of modifying participants\u27 beliefs by repeated questioning, we conclude that the optimal means of assessing unblinding is an intergroup comparison of the change in beliefs (and not their correctness) between the start and end of a randomized controlled trial

The Implications of M Dwarf Flares on the Detection and Characterization of Exoplanets at Infrared Wavelengths

We present the results of an observational campaign which obtained high time cadence, high precision, simultaneous optical and IR photometric observations of three M dwarf flare stars for 47 hours. The campaign was designed to characterize the behavior of energetic flare events, which routinely occur on M dwarfs, at IR wavelengths to milli-magnitude precision, and quantify to what extent such events might influence current and future efforts to detect and characterize extrasolar planets surrounding these stars. We detected and characterized four highly energetic optical flares having U-band total energies of ~7.8x10^30 to ~1.3x10^32 ergs, and found no corresponding response in the J, H, or Ks bandpasses at the precision of our data. For active dM3e stars, we find that a ~1.3x10^32 erg U-band flare (delta Umax ~1.5 mag) will induce <8.3 (J), <8.5 (H), and <11.7 (Ks) milli-mags of a response. A flare of this energy or greater should occur less than once per 18 hours. For active dM4.5e stars, we find that a ~5.1x10^31 erg U-band flare (delta Umax ~1.6 mag) will induce <7.8 (J), <8.8 (H), and <5.1 (Ks) milli-mags of a response. A flare of this energy or greater should occur less than once per 10 hours. No evidence of stellar variability not associated with discrete flare events was observed at the level of ~3.9 milli-mags over 1 hour time-scales and at the level of ~5.6 milli-mags over 7.5 hour time-scales. We therefore demonstrate that most M dwarf stellar activity and flares will not influence IR detection and characterization studies of M dwarf exoplanets above the level of ~5-11 milli-mags, depending on the filter and spectral type. We speculate that the most energetic megaflares on M dwarfs, which occur at rates of once per month, are likely to be easily detected in IR observations with sensitivity of tens of milli-mags.Comment: Accepted in Astronomical Journal, 17 pages, 6 figure

Pure dephasing in flux qubits due to flux noise with spectral density scaling as 1/fα1/ f^\alpha

For many types of superconducting qubits, magnetic flux noise is a source of pure dephasing. Measurements on a representative dc superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) over a range of temperatures show that $S_\Phi(f) = A^2/(f/1 \hbox{Hz})^\alpha$, where $S_\Phi$ is the flux noise spectral density, $A$ is of the order of 1 $\mu\Phi_0 \, \hbox{Hz}^{-1/2}$ and $0.61 \leq \alpha \leq 0.95$; $\Phi_{0}$ is the flux quantum. For a qubit with an energy level splitting linearly coupled to the applied flux, calculations of the dependence of the pure dephasing time $\tau_\phi$ of Ramsey and echo pulse sequences on $\alpha$ for fixed $A$ show that $\tau_\phi$ decreases rapidly as $\alpha$ is reduced. We find that $\tau_\phi$ is relatively insensitive to the noise bandwidth, $f_1 \leq f \leq f_2$, for all $\alpha$ provided the ultraviolet cutoff frequency $f_2 > 1/\tau_\phi$. We calculate the ratio $\tau_{\phi,E} / \tau_{\phi,R}$ of the echo ($E$) and Ramsey ($R$) sequences, and the dependence of the decay function on $\alpha$ and $f_2$. We investigate the case in which $S_\Phi(f_0)$ is fixed at the "pivot frequency" $f_0 \neq 1$ Hz while $\alpha$ is varied, and find that the choice of $f_0$ can greatly influence the sensitivity of $\tau_{\phi,E}$ and $\tau_{\phi,R}$ to the value of $\alpha$. Finally, we present calculated values of $\tau_\phi$ in a qubit corresponding to the values of $A$ and $\alpha$ measured in our SQUID.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Herschel and ALMA observations of the ISM in massive high-redshift galaxy clusters

The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) can be used to select samples of galaxy clusters that are essentially mass-limited out to arbitrarily high redshifts. I will present results from an investigation of the star formation properties of galaxies in four massive clusters, extending to z~1, which were selected on the basis of their SZE decrements in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) survey. All four clusters have been imaged with Herschel/PACS (tracing star formation rate) and two with ALMA (tracing dust and cold gas mass); newly discovered ALMA CO(4-3) and [CI] line detections expand an already large sample of spectroscopically confirmed cluster members. Star formation rate appears to anti-correlate with environmental density, but this trend vanishes after controlling for stellar mass. Elevated star formation and higher CO excitation are seen in "El Gordo," a violent cluster merger, relative to a virialized cluster at a similar high (z~1) redshift. Also exploiting ATCA 2.1 GHz observations to identify radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGN) in our sample, I will use these data to develop a coherent picture of how environment influences galaxies' ISM properties and evolution in the most massive clusters at early cosmic times

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a four telescope array designed to characterize relic primordial gravitational waves from inflation and the optical depth to reionization through a measurement of the polarized cosmic microwave background (CMB) on the largest angular scales. The frequencies of the four CLASS telescopes, one at 38 GHz, two at 93 GHz, and one dichroic system at 145/217 GHz, are chosen to avoid spectral regions of high atmospheric emission and span the minimum of the polarized Galactic foregrounds: synchrotron emission at lower frequencies and dust emission at higher frequencies. Low-noise transition edge sensor detectors and a rapid front-end polarization modulator provide a unique combination of high sensitivity, stability, and control of systematics. The CLASS site, at 5200 m in the Chilean Atacama desert, allows for daily mapping of up to 70\% of the sky and enables the characterization of CMB polarization at the largest angular scales. Using this combination of a broad frequency range, large sky coverage, control over systematics, and high sensitivity, CLASS will observe the reionization and recombination peaks of the CMB E- and B-mode power spectra. CLASS will make a cosmic variance limited measurement of the optical depth to reionization and will measure or place upper limits on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, down to a level of 0.01 (95\% C.L.)

M Dwarfs in SDSS Stripe 82: Photometric Light Curves and Flare Rate Analysis

We present a flare rate analysis of 50,130 M dwarf light curves in SDSS Stripe 82. We identified 271 flares using a customized variability index to search ~2.5 million photometric observations for flux increases in the u- and g-bands. Every image of a flaring observation was examined by eye and with a PSF-matching and image subtraction tool to guard against false positives. Flaring is found to be strongly correlated with the appearance of H-alpha in emission in the quiet spectrum. Of the 99 flare stars that have spectra, we classify 8 as relatively inactive. The flaring fraction is found to increase strongly in stars with redder colors during quiescence, which can be attributed to the increasing flare visibility and increasing active fraction for redder stars. The flaring fraction is strongly correlated with |Z| distance such that most stars that flare are within 300 pc of the Galactic plane. We derive flare u-band luminosities and find that the most luminous flares occur on the earlier-type M dwarfs. Our best estimate of the lower limit on the flaring rate (averaged over Stripe 82) for flares with \Delta u \ge 0.7 magnitudes on stars with u < 22 is 1.3 flares hour^-1 square degree^-1 but can vary significantly with the line-of-sight.Comment: 44 pages, 13 figure