Exchange rates and prices in the Netherlands and Britain over the past four centuries

This paper examines exchange-rate and price-level data for the long period 1590-2009 for the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (earlier the Dutch Republic and England), countries that at various times over this near four century span have differed substantially in terms of the pace at which their economies were developing, have operated under a variety of exchange rate regimes, and have been subjected to an extremely wide variety of real shocks. The principal conclusion of this study is the resiliency of the simple purchasing-power-parity model and of the law of one price at the microeconomic level. Both take some heavy blows during this close to four-century long sample period. In the end, however, they emerge surprisingly unscathed. Real factors at times appear to have had substantial effects on real exchange rates and hence PPP, but such effects ultimately dissipate. As a long-run equilibrium condition, PPP holds up remarkably well.

Can children withhold consent to treatment

A dilemma exists when a doctor is faced with a child or young person who refuses medically indicated treatment. The Gillick case has been interpreted by many to mean that a child of sufficient age and intelligence could validly consent or refuse consent to treatment. Recent decisions of the Court of Appeal on a child's refusal of medical treatment have clouded the issue and undermined the spirit of the Gillick decision and the Children Act 1989. It is now the case that a child patient whose competence is in doubt will be found rational if he or she accepts the proposal to treat but may be found incompetent if he or she disagrees. Practitioners are alerted to the anomalies now exhibited by the law on the issue of children's consent and refusal. The impact of the decisions from the perspectives of medicine, ethics, and the law are examined. Practitioners should review each case of child care carefully and in cases of doubt seek legal advice

Destination-Based Cash Flow Taxation

This paper presents, analyses, and further develops the idea of a destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT). Its purpose is expositional: to describe the DBCFT, how it might work, what its effects would be and some of the challenges that its implementation would face. The paper starts by introducing the basic mechanics of the DBCFT before evaluating it against five criteria: economic efficiency, robustness to avoidance and evasion, ease of administration, fairness and stability. It does so both for the case of universal adoption by all countries and the more plausible case of unilateral adoption. The paper then looks closely at the application of DBCFT treatment to the financial sector, which is a familiar problem under the VAT but has been little considered under the DBCFT. Finally, the paper sets out some core implementation issues, and how they might be addressed. It also compares the implementation of a DBCFT with the economically equivalent reform option that introduces a broad-based, uniform rate VAT (or achieves the same effect through an existing VAT), and reduces taxes on payroll by the same proportion

Chapter 2: A New Crisis Mechanism for the Euro Area

The European debt crisis followed the US financial crisis with a delay of one and a half years. While its first signs were visible in November and December of 2009 when the rating agency Fitch downgraded Ireland and Greece, it culminated on 28 April 2010 when the intra-day interest rate for two-year Greek government bonds peaked at 38 percent. Since then capital markets have been extremely unstable, showing signs of distrust in the creditworthiness of the GIPS countries: Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. The European Union reacted by preparing voluminous rescue plans that, at this writing (January 2011), have been resorted to by Greece and Ireland.

Chapter 1: The Macroeconomic Outlook

The structural problems brought to light by the financial crisis have largely remained in place or shifted from the private (banking) sector to the public sector. In the United States, despite increased saving, household debt remains high; their wealth position has deteriorated substantially due to the bursting of the house price bubble. The real estate sector has shrunk, and the financial sector has still not fully recovered.

Chapter 3: Greece

As most European countries were coming out of recession at the end of 2009, Greece was entering a tumultuous period. The announcement of the newly elected Greek government in October 2009 that the projected budget deficit for 2009 would be 12.7 percent of GDP2 (rather than the 5.1 percent projection that appeared in the 2009 Spring Commission forecast), was initially met with shock and opprobrium in Brussels and other euro-area capitals. The initial reaction of policymakers across the European Union was that the risk of contagion was minimal, and that the right way to deal with the situation was to let Greece “swing in the wind”.

Chapter 4: Spain

Spain has suffered a lot from the current crisis and is the first large economy that may find itself in need of fiscal rescue. If this happens it may prove quite damaging to the euro. Yet, since the mid-1990s, Spain was a champion of growth and fiscal stability; its unemployment had fallen rapidly to the levels that prevailed in the rest of the European Union. This chapter discusses the reasons why such a virtuous initial situation deteriorated so sharply since the start of the crisis. Was this just bad luck or were the booming years just a mirage?