Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson- Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices. JEL Classification: C22, E32, R11, R12, R15 Keywords: Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency

We use unobserved components methodology to establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which region-specific cycles of Australian States and New Zealand are additionally important. West Australian and New Zealand region-specific growth cycles have exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle. For every Australasian region, the region-specific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle, in contrast to findings for U.S. BEA regions and prior work for Australian States. The distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles is consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy, for periods when significant region-specific shocks occur

Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles

We compute classical real GDP business cycles and growth cycles, contrast classical recessions with ‘technical’ recessions, and assess the sensitivity of our peaks and troughs to data revisions. Using this information we find that, on average, real GDP and employment cycles have had an 89% association. Other key findings are (i) New Zealand’s average pattern of recovery has differed from that for U.S. NBER cycles, but their most recent recession and recovery paths have been unusually similar; (ii) the strength of New Zealand's business cycle recoveries has been independent of the depth, duration, or severity of the preceding recession; and (iii) investment is an important component of expansions, and in the current cycle it has been residential investment and plant and equipment investment that have been unusually slow to recover their levels at prior business cycle peaks

Observation of quantum oscillations between a Josephson phase qubit and a microscopic resonator using fast readout

We have detected coherent quantum oscillations between Josephson phase qubits and microscopic critical-current fluctuators by implementing a new state readout technique that is an order of magnitude faster than previous methods. The period of the oscillations is consistent with the spectroscopic splittings observed in the qubit's resonant frequency. The results point to a possible mechanism for decoherence and reduced measurement fidelity in superconducting qubits and demonstrate the means to measure two-qubit interactions in the time domain

Pre-pregnancy predictors of hypertension in pregnancy among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in north Queensland, Australia; a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Compared to other Australian women, Indigenous women are frequently at greater risk for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. We examined pre-pregnancy factors that may predict hypertension in pregnancy in a cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in north Queensland. METHODS Data on a cohort of 1009 Indigenous women of childbearing age (15–44 years) who participated in a 1998–2000 health screening program in north Queensland were combined with 1998–2008 Queensland hospitalisations data using probabilistic data linkage. Data on the women in the cohort who were hospitalised for birth (n = 220) were further combined with Queensland perinatal data which identified those diagnosed with hypertension in pregnancy. RESULTS Of 220 women who gave birth, 22 had hypertension in the pregnancy after their health check. The mean age of women with and without hypertension was similar (23.7 years and 23.9 years respectively) however Aboriginal women were more affected compared to Torres Strait Islanders. Pre-pregnancy adiposity and elevated blood pressure at the health screening program were predictors of a pregnancy affected by hypertension. After adjusting for age and ethnicity, each 1 cm increase in waist circumference showed a 4% increased risk for hypertension in pregnancy (PR 1.04; 95% CI; 1.02-1.06); each 1 point increase in BMI showed a 9% adjusted increase in risk (1.09; 1.04-1.14). For each 1 mmHg increase in baseline systolic blood pressure there was an age and ethnicity adjusted 6% increase in risk and each 1 mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure showed a 7% increase in risk (1.06; 1.03-1.09 and 1.07; 1.03-1.11 respectively). Among those free of diabetes at baseline, the presence of the metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation criteria) predicted over a three-fold increase in age-ethnicity-adjusted risk (3.5; 1.50-8.17). CONCLUSIONS Pre-pregnancy adiposity and features of the metabolic syndrome among these young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women track strongly to increased risk of hypertension in pregnancy with associated risks to the health of babies.Sandra K Campbell, John Lynch, Adrian Esterman and Robyn McDermot

Decoherence in Josephson Qubits from Dielectric Loss

Dielectric loss from two-level states is shown to be a dominant decoherence source in superconducting quantum bits. Depending on the qubit design, dielectric loss from insulating materials or the tunnel junction can lead to short coherence times. We show that a variety of microwave and qubit measurements are well modeled by loss from resonant absorption of two-level defects. Our results demonstrate that this loss can be significantly reduced by using better dielectrics and fabricating junctions of small area $\lesssim 10 \mu \textrm{m}^2$. With a redesigned phase qubit employing low-loss dielectrics, the energy relaxation rate has been improved by a factor of 20, opening up the possibility of multi-qubit gates and algorithms.Comment: shortened version submitted to PR

Microwave response of vortices in superconducting thin films of Re and Al

Vortices in superconductors driven at microwave frequencies exhibit a response related to the interplay between the vortex viscosity, pinning strength, and flux creep effects. At the same time, the trapping of vortices in superconducting microwave resonant circuits contributes excess loss and can result in substantial reductions in the quality factor. Thus, understanding the microwave vortex response in superconducting thin films is important for the design of such circuits, including superconducting qubits and photon detectors, which are typically operated in small, but non-zero, magnetic fields. By cooling in fields of the order of 100 $\mu$T and below, we have characterized the magnetic field and frequency dependence of the microwave response of a small density of vortices in resonators fabricated from thin films of Re and Al, which are common materials used in superconducting microwave circuits. Above a certain threshold cooling field, which is different for the Re and Al films, vortices become trapped in the resonators. Vortices in the Al resonators contribute greater loss and are influenced more strongly by flux creep effects than in the Re resonators. This different behavior can be described in the framework of a general vortex dynamics model.Comment: Published in Physical Review B 79,174512(2009); preprint version with higher resolution figures available at http://physics.syr.edu/~bplourde/bltp-publications.ht

Exploration of the Mid-Cayman Rise

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