Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification

We argue that endogenous and anticipated movements in interest rates lead to underestimates of the speed and magnitude of the exchange rate response to monetary policy. Employing the Romer and Romer (2004) exogenous monetary policy shock measure, we find that the effect of a one percentage point increase in the U.S. interest rate is up to twice as large and 3 times as fast as that obtained using the actual federal funds rate to identify monetary shocks. Moreover, new evidence from open economy VARs emphasises the adjustment role of the exchange rate. U.S. prices and output respond almost twice as quickly as they do in a closed economy VAR using the Romer and Romber shock measure. There is also evidence of stronger international transmission of U.S. monetary shocks. Overall, the estimated response speeds and magnitudes are more easily reconciled with existing models than previous empirical work.monetary policy shocks, exchange rate dynamics, open economy VARs

Education and Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Purerto Rico

The existence of intergenerational spillovers to public investments in schooling is often assumed in policy discussions regarding economic development. However, few studies to date have forwarded convincing evidence that externalities exist for developing countries. In this paper, we address this issue using the arguably exogenous schooling consequences of a major hurricane strike on Puerto Rico in the 1950s. Using data from the US. Census of Population for Puerto Rico, we first find that individuals on to margin of school entry at the time of the storm and residing in the most exposed regions of the island had significantly lower levels of education as adults than their counterparts in less exposed regions. Using the interaction of wind speed and age at the time of the storm as an instrument, we then find that maternal education is related to the probability that a child speaks English. Our estimates imply an additional year of education raise the probability that a child speaks English by between 4.3 and 4.5 percentage points, c approximately 24 to 28 percent. We find no conclusive evidence that parental education increases the probability that a child is enrolled, literate, or in an age-appropriate grad, On balance, these findings suggest that education is responsible at least in part for the persistence of human capital across generations.education, intergenerational mobility, natural experiment, hurricane

The long-lived effects of historic climate on the wealth of nations

We investigate the long-run consequences of historic, climatic temperatures (1730-2000) for the modern cross-country income distribution. Using a newly constructed dataset of climatic temperatures stretching over three centuries (18th, 19th, and 20th), we estimate a robust and significant time-varying, non-monotonic effect of climatic temperature upon current incomes for a cross-section of 167 countries. We find a large, positive effect of 18th century climatic temperature and an even larger, negative effect of 19th century climatic temperature upon current incomes. When historic, climatic temperature is introduced, the effect of 20th century climatic temperature on current income is either weakly positive or insignificant. Our findings are robust to various sub-samples, additional geographic controls, and alternative income measures. The negative relationship between current, climatic temperature and current income that is commonly estimated appears to reflect the long-run effect of climatic variations in the 18th and 19th centuries. <br><br> Keywords; climate, temperature, economic performance, geography, history JEL codes: N50, O11, O40, O50, O57

'Going private': a qualitative comparison of medical specialists' job satisfaction in the public and private sectors of South Africa

BACKGROUND: There is a highly inequitable distribution of health workers between public and private sectors in South Africa, partly due to within-country migration trends. This article elaborates what South African medical specialists find satisfying about working in the public and private sectors, at present, and how to better incentivize retention in the public sector. METHODS: Seventy-four qualitative interviews were conducted - among specialists and key informants - based in one public and one private urban hospital in South Africa. Interviews were coded to determine common job satisfaction factors, both financial and non-financial in nature. This served as background to a broader study on the impacts of specialist 'dual practice', that is, moonlighting. All qualitative specialist respondents were engaged in dual practice, generally working in both public and private sectors. Respondents were thus able to compare what was satisfying about these sectors, having experience of both. RESULTS: Results demonstrate that although there are strong financial incentives for specialists to migrate from the public to the private sector, public work can be attractive in some ways. For example, the public hospital sector generally provides more of a team environment, more academic opportunities, and greater opportunities to feel 'needed' and 'relevant'. However, public specialists suffer under poor resource availability, lack of trust for the Department of Health, and poor perceived career opportunities. These non-financial issues of public sector dissatisfaction appeared just as important, if not more important, than wage disparities. CONCLUSIONS: The results are useful for understanding both what brings specialists to migrate to the private sector, and what keeps some working in the public sector. Policy recommendations center around boosting public sector resources and building trust of the public sector through including health workers more in decision-making, inter alia. These interventions may be more cost-effective for retention than wage increases, and imply that it is not necessarily just a matter of putting more money into the public sector to increase retention

The long-lived effects of historic climate on the wealth of nations

We investigate the long-run consequences of historic, climatic temperatures (1730-2000) for the modern cross-country income distribution. Using a newly constructed dataset of climatic temperatures stretching over three centuries (18th, 19th, and 20th), we estimate a robust and significant time-varying, nonmonotonic effect of climatic temperature upon current incomes for a crosssection of 167 countries. We find a large, positive effect of 18th century climatic temperature and an even larger, negative effect of 19th century climatic temperature upon current incomes. When historic, climatic temperature is introduced, the effect of 20th century climatic temperature on current income is either weakly positive or insignificant. Our findings are robust to various sub-samples, additional geographic controls, and alternative income measures. The negative relationship between current, climatic temperature and current income that is commonly estimated appears to reflect the long-run effect of climatic variations in the 18th and 19th centurie

Heterogeneous Bank Lending Responses to Monetary Policy: New Evidence from a Real-time Identifiation

Heterogeneity in bank responses to monetary policy is consistent with an aggregate lending channel. However, estimates of bank responses are typically obtained using realized federal funds rate changes, which are endogenous to expected, macroeconomic fundamentals. As such, estimated heterogeneity can arise from expected fundamentals. Using an exogenous policy measure identified from narratives on FOMC intentions and real-time forecasts, we find greater heterogeneity in responses. There is a much stronger monetary policy transmission to smaller banks. The shielding of lending amongst holding companies is larger using the exogenous measure. Unlike previous research, we find that holdings of securities amplify exogenous policy transmission, while equity capital negates it. The results highlight the importance of controlling for policy endogeneity in future studies of bank lending behavior

The open economy consequences of U.S. monetary policy

A failure to identify movements in the federal funds rate that are both unpredictable and independent of other determinants of open economy variables may lead to attenuation bias in the estimated effects of U.S. monetary policy on the exchange rate and foreign variables. Using a U.S. monetary policy measure which isolates unpredictable and independent federal funds rate changes, we quantify the magnitude of the attenuation bias for the exchange rate and foreign variables. The exchange rate appreciation following a monetary contraction is up to 4 times larger than a recursively-identified VAR estimate. There is stronger evidence of foreign interest rate pass-through. The expenditure-reducing effects of a U.S. monetary policy contraction dominate any expenditure-switching effects, leading to a positive conditional correlation of international outputs and prices. We compare our results with those obtained using identification based upon: (1) non-recursive VAR restrictions; and, (2) restrictions derived from high frequency asset price behavior