Financial ``Anti-Bubbles'': Log-Periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses

We propose that imitation between traders and their herding behaviour not only lead to speculative bubbles with accelerating over-valuations of financial markets possibly followed by crashes, but also to ``anti-bubbles'' with decelerating market devaluations following all-time highs. For this, we propose a simple market dynamics model in which the demand decreases slowly with barriers that progressively quench in, leading to a power law decay of the market price decorated by decelerating log-periodic oscillations. We document this behaviour on the Japanese Nikkei stock index from 1990 to present and on the Gold future prices after 1980, both after their all-time highs. We perform simultaneously a parametric and non-parametric analysis that are fully consistent with each other. We extend the parametric approach to the next order of perturbation, comparing the log-periodic fits with one, two and three log-frequencies, the latter one providing a prediction for the general trend in the coming years. The non-parametric power spectrum analysis shows the existence of log-periodicity with high statistical significance, with a prefered scale ratio of $\lambda \approx 3.5$ for the Nikkei index $\lambda \approx 1.9$ for the Gold future prices, comparable to the values obtained for speculative bubbles leading to crashes.Comment: 14 pages with 4 figure

Three-body properties of low-lying 12^{12}Be resonances

We compute the three-body structure of the lowest resonances of $^{12}$Be considered as two neutrons around an inert $^{10}$Be core. This is an extension of the bound state calculations of $^{12}$Be into the continuum spectrum. We investigate the lowest resonances of angular momenta and parities, $0^{\pm}$, $1^{-}$ and $2^{+}$. Surprisingly enough, they all are naturally occurring in the three-body model. We calculate bulk structure dominated by small distance properties as well as decays determined by the asymptotic large-distance structure. Both $0^{+}$ and $2^{+}$ have two-body $^{10}$Be-neutron d-wave structure, while $1^{-}$ has an even mixture of $p$ and d-waves. The corresponding relative neutron-neutron partial waves are distributed among $s$, $p$, and d-waves. The branching ratios show different mixtures of one-neutron emission, three-body direct, and sequential decays. We argue for spin and parities, $0^{+}$, $1^{-}$ and $2^{+}$, to the resonances at 0.89, 2.03, 5.13, respectively. The computed structures are in agreement with existing reaction measurements.Comment: To be published in Physical Review

Stochastics theory of log-periodic patterns

We introduce an analytical model based on birth-death clustering processes to help understanding the empirical log-periodic corrections to power-law scaling and the finite-time singularity as reported in several domains including rupture, earthquakes, world population and financial systems. In our stochastics theory log-periodicities are a consequence of transient clusters induced by an entropy-like term that may reflect the amount of cooperative information carried by the state of a large system of different species. The clustering completion rates for the system are assumed to be given by a simple linear death process. The singularity at t_{o} is derived in terms of birth-death clustering coefficients.Comment: LaTeX, 1 ps figure - To appear J. Phys. A: Math & Ge

Magnetostrictive behaviour of thin superconducting disks

Flux-pinning-induced stress and strain distributions in a thin disk superconductor in a perpendicular magnetic field is analyzed. We calculate the body forces, solve the magneto-elastic problem and derive formulas for all stress and strain components, including the magnetostriction $\Delta R/R$. The flux and current density profiles in the disk are assumed to follow the Bean model. During a cycle of the applied field the maximum tensile stress is found to occur approximately midway between the maximum field and the remanent state. An effective relationship between this overall maximum stress and the peak field is found.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Supercond. Sci. Technol., Proceed. of MEM03 in Kyot

Reinforced carbon-carbon oxidation behavior in convective and radiative environments

Reinforced carbon-carbon, which is used as thermal protection on the space shuttle orbiter wing leading edges and nose cap, was tested in both radiant and plasma arcjet heating test facilities. The test series was conducted at varying temperatures and pressures. Samples tested in the plasma arcjet facility had consistently higher mass loss than those samples tested in the radiant facility. A method using the mass loss data is suggested for predicting mission mass loss for specific locations on the Orbiter

Stock mechanics: predicting recession in S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ

An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found involving a potential to continue to rise.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Diversity of flux avalanche patterns in superconducting films

The variety of morphologies in flux patterns created by thermomagnetic dendritic avalanches in type-II superconducting films is investigated using numerical simulations. The avalanches are triggered by introducing a hot spot at the edge of a strip-shaped sample, which is initially prepared in a partially penetrated Bean critical state by slowly ramping the transversely applied magnetic field. The simulation scheme is based on a model accounting for the nonlinear and nonlocal electrodynamics of superconductors in the transverse geometry. By systematically varying the parameters representing the Joule heating, heat conduction in the film, and heat transfer to the substrate, a wide variety of avalanche patterns is formed, and quantitative characterization of areal extension, branch width etc. is made. The results show that branching is suppressed by the lateral heat diffusion, while large Joule heating gives many branches, and heat removal into the substrate limits the areal size. The morphology shows significant dependence also on the initial flux penetration depth.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Holomorphic Currents and Duality in N=1 Supersymmetric Theories

Twisted supersymmetric theories on a product of two Riemann surfaces possess non-local holomorphic currents in a BRST cohomology. The holomorphic currents act as vector fields on the chiral ring. The OPE's of these currents are invariant under the renormalization group flow up to BRST-exact terms. In the context of electric-magnetic duality, the algebra generated by the holomorphic currents in the electric theory is isomorphic to the one on the magnetic side. For the currents corresponding to global symmetries this isomorphism follows from 't Hooft anomaly matching conditions. The isomorphism between OPE's of the currents corresponding to non-linear transformations of fields of matter imposes non-trivial conditions on the duality map of chiral ring. We consider in detail the $SU(N_c)$ SQCD with matter in fundamental and adjoint representations, and find agreement with the duality map proposed by Kutasov, Schwimmer and Seiberg.Comment: 19 pages, JHEP3 LaTex, typos correcte

Log-periodic route to fractal functions

Log-periodic oscillations have been found to decorate the usual power law behavior found to describe the approach to a critical point, when the continuous scale-invariance symmetry is partially broken into a discrete-scale invariance (DSI) symmetry. We classify the `Weierstrass-type'' solutions of the renormalization group equation F(x)= g(x)+(1/m)F(g x) into two classes characterized by the amplitudes A(n) of the power law series expansion. These two classes are separated by a novel ``critical'' point. Growth processes (DLA), rupture, earthquake and financial crashes seem to be characterized by oscillatory or bounded regular microscopic functions g(x) that lead to a slow power law decay of A(n), giving strong log-periodic amplitudes. In contrast, the regular function g(x) of statistical physics models with ``ferromagnetic''-type interactions at equibrium involves unbound logarithms of polynomials of the control variable that lead to a fast exponential decay of A(n) giving weak log-periodic amplitudes and smoothed observables. These two classes of behavior can be traced back to the existence or abscence of ``antiferromagnetic'' or ``dipolar''-type interactions which, when present, make the Green functions non-monotonous oscillatory and favor spatial modulated patterns.Comment: Latex document of 29 pages + 20 ps figures, addition of a new demonstration of the source of strong log-periodicity and of a justification of the general offered classification, update of reference lis