Interest rate pass-through estimates from vector autoregressive models

The empirical literature on interest rate transmission presents diverse and sometimes conflicting estimates. By discussing methodological and specification-related issues, the results of this paper contribute to the understanding of these differences. Eleven Austrian bank lending and deposit rates are utilized to illustrate the pass-through of impulses from monetary policy and banks’ cost of funds. Results from vector autoregressions suggest that the long-run pass-through is higher for movements in the bond market than of changes in money market rates. Deposit rates have no predictive content for lending rates beyond that of market interest rates.Monetary policy transmission; interest rate pass-through; retail interest rates; vector autoregression; impulse-response functions

Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks

Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this respect. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for a financial accelerator being behind this finding.Leading indicator; business cycle; shock propagation; financial accelerator; bank markup

When and why do Austrian companies issue shares?

This paper examines the issuance of share capital via the Vienna Stock Exchange between 1985 and 2004. Evidence is supplied concerning the aggregate factors that explain the time-series variation in both the numbers of and proceeds from initial public offerings (IPOs) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Results indicate that there is no cyclical sensitivity of issues, but that firms successfully time their offerings to take advantage of high stock market valuations and the associated low cost of equity capital. Corporate indebtedness and interest rates are significant determinants of SEOs in statistical and economic terms. The proceeds from IPOs, rather than funds raised by firms that are already listed, are used to finance subsequent investment.Initial public offerings; seasoned equity offerings; corporate finance; capital structure; share issuance; going public; capital demand; stock market; cost of capital.

Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle

If and how the conduct of the banking sector contributes to the propagation of aggregate shocks has become a prominent empirical research question. This study explores what a cyclicality analysis of net interest margins and spreads, as well as profitability figures, can contribute to the discussion. By using time series data for the Austrian banking sector from 1987 to 2005, it is found that many of these measures fall in economic upturns. Net interest income from granting loans and taking deposits from non-banks, however, evolves procyclically and increases with rising interest rates. Combined with the observation that the margins’ countercyclical variations are rather small, it can be concluded that there is no striking evidence for a financial accelerator caused by the Austrian banking sector.Bank interest margins; business cycles; financial accelerator; impulse response analysis

Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?

I examine whether or not returns on stock markets are a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments in Austria, Japan and the USA. Further I deal with the concept of stock market efficiency, the question whether or not information from real and financial sectors of the economy is consistently priced on stock markets. This would not be the case if past macroeconomic developments could be used to improve forecasts of subsequent stock returns. Time series models are used to investigate the respective long-run relations between stock prices and other macroeconomic variables as well as short-term dynamics. I conclude that none of the markets under study is efficient in the above-mentioned strict sense. Only U.S. stock returns lead private consumption and, rather weakly, retail sales growth.Stock returns; stock market efficiency; leading indicators; macroeconomic variables; vector error correction models

The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?

This study explores an important aspect of how the Austrian banking sector contributes to the propagation of aggregate shocks. Time series data for the 1995-2003 period are applied to examine the cyclical variations in interest rate spreads. Differentials between interest rates on loans and savings are not found to shrink in economic upturns, so there is no financial mechanism emanating from bank markups that would entail an amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations. But also the evidence for Austrian banks dampening the business cycle (a financial de-celerator) is not striking as the increases of interest rate spreads after shocks in the growth rate of real GDP are practically small.Interest rate spreads; business cycles; financial accelerator; impulse response analysis