Share buybacks:A theoretical exploration of genetic algorithms and mathematical optionality

This article exclusively formulates and presents three innovative hypotheses related to the execution of share buybacks, employing Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and mathematical optimization techniques. Drawing on the foundational contributions of scholars such as Osterrieder, Seigne, Masters, and Guéant, we articulate hypotheses that aim to bring a fresh perspective to share buyback strategies. The first hypothesis examines the potential of GAs to mimic trading schedules, the second posits the optimization of buyback execution as a mathematical problem, and the third underlines the role of optionality in improving performance. These hypotheses do not only offer theoretical insights but also set the stage for empirical examination and practical application, contributing to broader financial innovation. The article does not contain new data or extensive reviews but focuses purely on presenting these original, untested hypotheses, sparking intrigue for future research and exploration. JEL Classification: G00.</p

Share buybacks: a theoretical exploration of genetic algorithms and mathematical optionality

This article exclusively formulates and presents three innovative hypotheses related to the execution of share buybacks, employing Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and mathematical optimization techniques. Drawing on the foundational contributions of scholars such as Osterrieder, Seigne, Masters, and Guéant, we articulate hypotheses that aim to bring a fresh perspective to share buyback strategies. The first hypothesis examines the potential of GAs to mimic trading schedules, the second posits the optimization of buyback execution as a mathematical problem, and the third underlines the role of optionality in improving performance. These hypotheses do not only offer theoretical insights but also set the stage for empirical examination and practical application, contributing to broader financial innovation. The article does not contain new data or extensive reviews but focuses purely on presenting these original, untested hypotheses, sparking intrigue for future research and exploration.JEL ClassificationG00

Generative Adversarial Networks in finance: an overview

Modelling in finance is a challenging task: the data often has complex statistical properties and its inner workings are largely unknown. Deep learning algorithms are making progress in the field of data-driven modelling, but the lack of sufficient data to train these models is currently holding back several new applications. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a neural network architecture family that has achieved good results in image generation and is being successfully applied to generate time series and other types of financial data. The purpose of this study is to present an overview of how these GANs work, their capabilities and limitations in the current state of research with financial data, and present some practical applications in the industry. As a proof of concept, three known GAN architectures were tested on financial time series, and the generated data was evaluated on its statistical properties, yielding solid results. Finally, it was shown that GANs have made considerable progress in their finance applications and can be a solid additional tool for data scientists in this field

Examining share repurchase executions:insights and synthesis from the existing literature

This literature review aims to address the critical knowledge gap in the field of share repurchase executions, a financial activity involving companies repurchasing trillions of dollars' worth of their own shares. The significance of understanding these mechanisms and their impact is underscored by their potential influence on the global economy. The paper employs a comprehensive analysis of existing literature, focusing on share repurchase mechanisms and motivations. It scrutinizes both open-market repurchases and Accelerated Share Repurchase contracts. Methodological approaches in current research, such as the use of partial differential equations and tree methods, are also evaluated. The review reveals that the execution phase of share repurchases remains largely unexplored. Unanswered questions persist about trading schedules, implications, costs, broker and corporate performance, and psychological effects of beating a buyback benchmark. Additionally, the review identifies significant limitations in current research methodologies. The paper advocates for the application and development of more advanced tools like machine learning and artificial intelligence to address these gaps. It also suggests potential areas for future research, including the role of technology in share repurchase execution, psychological factors influencing corporate buybacks, and the development of performance metrics for brokers and corporations. The review serves not only to highlight existing gaps in literature but also to suggest avenues for future research that could fundamentally enhance our understanding of share repurchase executions. JEL classification: G1, G12, G14, G02, G4.</p

A Hypothesis on Good Practices for AI-based Systems for Financial Time Series Forecasting: Towards Domain-Driven XAI Methods

Machine learning and deep learning have become increasingly prevalent in financial prediction and forecasting tasks, offering advantages such as enhanced customer experience, democratising financial services, improving consumer protection, and enhancing risk management. However, these complex models often lack transparency and interpretability, making them challenging to use in sensitive domains like finance. This has led to the rise of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods aimed at creating models that are easily understood by humans. Classical XAI methods, such as LIME and SHAP, have been developed to provide explanations for complex models. While these methods have made significant contributions, they also have limitations, including computational complexity, inherent model bias, sensitivity to data sampling, and challenges in dealing with feature dependence. In this context, this paper explores good practices for deploying explainability in AI-based systems for finance, emphasising the importance of data quality, audience-specific methods, consideration of data properties, and the stability of explanations. These practices aim to address the unique challenges and requirements of the financial industry and guide the development of effective XAI tools.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figur

Wasserstein GAN:Deep Generation applied on Bitcoins financial time series

Modeling financial time series is challenging due to their high volatility and unexpected happenings on the market. Most financial models and algorithms trying to fill the lack of historical financial time series struggle to perform and are highly vulnerable to overfitting. As an alternative, we introduce in this paper a deep neural network called the WGAN-GP, a data-driven model that focuses on sample generation. The WGAN-GP consists of a generator and discriminator function which utilize an LSTM architecture. The WGAN-GP is supposed to learn the underlying structure of the input data, which in our case, is the Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unique in its behavior; the prices fluctuate what makes guessing the price trend hardly impossible. Through adversarial training, the WGAN-GP should learn the underlying structure of the bitcoin and generate very similar samples of the bitcoin distribution. The generated synthetic time series are visually indistinguishable from the real data. But the numerical results show that the generated data were close to the real data distribution but distinguishable. The model mainly shows a stable learning behavior. However, the model has space for optimization, which could be achieved by adjusting the hyperparameters

The VIX index under scrutiny of machine learning techniques and neural networks

The CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the market's expected volatility on the SP 500 Index, calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). It is also often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge. The current VIX index value quotes the expected annualized change in the SP 500 index over the following 30 days, based on options-based theory and current options-market data. Despite its theoretical foundation in option price theory, CBOE's Volatility Index is prone to inadvertent and deliberate errors because it is weighted average of out-of-the-money calls and puts which could be illiquid. Many claims of market manipulation have been brought up against VIX in recent years. This paper discusses several approaches to replicate the VIX index as well as VIX futures by using a subset of relevant options as well as neural networks that are trained to automatically learn the underlying formula. Using subset selection approaches on top of the original CBOE methodology, as well as building machine learning and neural network models including Random Forests, Support Vector Machines, feed-forward neural networks, and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, we will show that a small number of options is sufficient to replicate the VIX index. Once we are able to actually replicate the VIX using a small number of SP options we will be able to exploit potential arbitrage opportunities between the VIX index and its underlying derivatives. The results are supposed to help investors to better understand the options market, and more importantly, to give guidance to the US regulators and CBOE that have been investigating those manipulation claims for several years