Agent-based simulation of pedestrians' earthquake evacuation; application to Beirut, Lebanon

Most seismic risk assessment methods focus on estimating the damages to the built environment and the consequent socioeconomic losses without fully taking into account the social aspect of risk. Yet, human behaviour is a key element in predicting the human impact of an earthquake, therefore, it is important to include it in quantitative risk assessment studies. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach simulating pedestrians' evacuation during earthquakes at the city scale is developed using an agent-based model. The model integrates the seismic hazard, the physical vulnerability as well as individuals' behaviours and mobility. The simulator is applied to the case of Beirut, Lebanon. Lebanon is at the heart of the Levant fault system that has generated several Mw>7 earthquakes, the latest being in 1759. It is one of the countries with the highest seismic risk in the Mediterranean region. This is due to the high seismic vulnerability of the buildings due to the absence of mandatory seismic regulation until 2012, the high level of urbanization, and the lack of adequate spatial planning and risk prevention policies. Beirut as the main residential, economic and institutional hub of Lebanon is densely populated. To accommodate the growing need for urban development, constructions have almost taken over all of the green areas of the city; squares and gardens are disappearing to give place to skyscrapers. However, open spaces are safe places to shelter, away from debris, and therefore play an essential role in earthquake evacuation. Despite the massive urbanization, there are a few open spaces but locked gates and other types of anthropogenic barriers often limit their access. To simulate this complex context, pedestrians' evacuation simulations are run in a highly realistic spatial environment implemented in GAMA [1]. Previous data concerning soil and buildings in Beirut [2, 3] are complemented by new geographic data extracted from high-resolution Pleiades satellite images. The seismic loading is defined as a peak ground acceleration of 0.3g, as stated in Lebanese seismic regulations. Building damages are estimated using an artificial neural network trained to predict the mean damage [4] based on the seismic loading as well as the soil and building vibrational properties [5]. Moreover, the quantity and the footprint of the generated debris around each building are also estimated and included in the model. We simulate how topography, buildings, debris, and access to open spaces, affect individuals' mobility. Two city configurations are implemented: 1. Open spaces are accessible without any barriers; 2. Access to some open spaces is blocked. The first simulation results show that while 52% of the population is able to arrive to an open space within 5 minutes after an earthquake, this number is reduced to 39% when one of the open spaces is locked. These results show that the presence of accessible open spaces in a city and their proximity to the residential buildings is a crucial factor for ensuring people's safety when an earthquake occurs

The use of passive seismological imaging in speleogenetic studies: an example from Kanaan Cave, Lebanon

Among many parameters that control the evolution of caves stands the volume of unconsolidated clay sediments generally produced by the alteration of the calcareous rocks. Here we introduce the use of a passive seismological imaging technique to investigate the clay deposits and estimate its total volume in a cave. Applied for the first time for speleogenesis studies, the HVSR (Horizontal / Vertical Spectral Ration) is a geophysical technique that can help better interpret cave geomorphology. We apply seismological spectral techniques (H/V ratio) on ambient noise vibrations to derive the clay volume, as well as its shape. This technique applied on the clay volume reveals some internal details, such as fallen blocks prior to the deposit accumulation and helps to understand deposit evacuation dynamics. The study focuses on the Kanaan Cave, located in Metn District, Lebanon, and reveals new stages related to the cave speleogenesis. This technique could be applied on ‘paragenetic’ caves where clay volume is frequently present in order to constrain the clay volume and reconstruct the buried floor shape of the cave, underneath the clay deposit

Le bassin-versant du Nahr Beyrouth : Aménagement et conséquences environnementales.

International audienc

Topographie et précipitation locale : approche trigonométrique

Adjizian-Gérard Jocelyne, Ambroise Bruno. Topographie et précipitation locale : approche trigonométrique. In: Annales de Géographie, t. 104, n°581-582, 1995. pp. 173-177