StrokeCog Markov model: projected prevalent and incident cases of stroke and poststroke cognitive impairment to 2035 in Ireland

Background and purpose: Cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia are common stroke outcomes, with significant health and societal implications for aging populations. These outcomes are not included in current epidemiological models. We aimed to develop an epidemiological model to project incidence and prevalence of stroke, poststroke CIND and dementia, and life expectancy, in Ireland to 2035, informing policy and service planning.Methods: We developed a probabilistic Markov model (the StrokeCog model) applied to the Irish population aged 40 to 89 years to 2035. Data sources included official population and hospital-episode statistics, longitudinal cohort studies, and published estimates. Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. Results were externally validated against independent sources. The model tracks poststroke progression into health states characterized by no cognitive impairment, CIND, dementia, disability, stroke recurrence, and death.Results: We projected 69 051 people with prevalent stroke in Ireland in 2035 (22.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 20.8-23.1]), with 25 274 (8.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 7.1-9.0]) of those projected to have poststroke CIND, and 12 442 having poststroke dementia (4.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 3.2-4.8]). We projected 8725 annual incident strokes in 2035 (2.8 per 1000 population [95% CI, 2.7-2.9]), with 3832 of these having CIND (1.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, 1.1-1.3]), and 1715 with dementia (0.5 per 1000 population [95% CI, 0.5-0.6]). Life expectancy for stroke survivors at age 50 was 23.4 years (95% CI, 22.3-24.5) for women and 20.7 (95% CI, 19.5-21.9) for men.Conclusions: This novel epidemiological model of stroke, poststroke CIND, and dementia draws on the best available evidence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that findings were robust to assumptions, and where there was uncertainty a conservative approach was taken. The StrokeCog model is a useful tool for service planning and cost-effectiveness analysis and is available for adaptation to other national contexts.</p

The influence of families on early adolescent school connectedness: Evidence that this association varies with adolescent involvement in peer drinking networks

School connectedness is central to the long term well-being of adolescents, and high quality parent-child relationships facilitate school connectedness. This study examined the extent to which family relationship quality is associated with the school connectedness of pre- and early teenagers, and how this association varies with adolescent involvement in peer drinking networks. The sample consisted of 7,372 10-14 year olds recruited from 231 schools in 30 Australian communities. Participants completed the Communities that Care youth survey. A multi-level model of school connectedness was used, with a random term for school-level variation. Key independent variables included family relationship quality, peer drinking networks, and school grade. Control variables included child gender, sensation seeking, depression, child alcohol use, parent education, and language spoken at home. For grade 6 students, the association of family relationship quality and school connectedness was lower when peer drinking networks were present, and this effect was nonsignificant for older (grade 8) students. Post hoc analyses indicated that the effect for family relationship quality on school connectedness was nonsignificant when adolescents in grade 6 reported that the majority of friends consumed alcohol. The results point to the importance of familyschool partnerships in early intervention and prevention

School-based initial vocational education in the Republic of Ireland: the parity of esteem and fitness for purpose of the Leaving Certificate Applied

The Irish Leaving Certificate Applied (LCA) is a school-based, pre-vocational alternative to the ‘high stakes’ established Leaving Certificate. Its origins lie in European Union funded ‘school to work’ initiatives and it is currently taken to completion by some 5% of Irish senior cycle students. Since it was designed 20 years ago, there has been little critical commentary regarding the programme. The current paper considers the public perceptions and fitness for purpose of this ring-fenced programme in a rapidly changing social and economic environment. Key aspects of this changed context include the increased numbers of Irish students completing secondary education and progressing to higher education, the changing destinations of LCA graduates and the recent economic downturn. The problems arising from ring-fencing are considered from the perspectives of parallel programmes in Australia, the UK and the Netherlands. Relevant issues are identified for discussion and review