Reassessing the observational evidence for nitrogen deposition impacts in acid grassland: spatial Bayesian linear models indicate small and ambiguous effects on species richness

Nitrogen deposition (Ndep) is considered a significant threat to plant diversity in grassland ecosystems around the world. The evidence supporting this conclusion comes from both observational and experimental research, with “space-for-time” substitution surveys of pollutant gradients a significant portion of the former. However, estimates of regression coefficients for Ndep impacts on species richness, derived with a focus on causal inference, are hard to locate in the observational literature. Some influential observational studies have presented estimates from univariate models, overlooking the effects of omitted variable bias, and/or have used P-value-based stepwise variable selection (PSVS) to infer impacts, a strategy known to be poorly suited to the accurate estimation of regression coefficients. Broad-scale spatial autocorrelation has also generally been unaccounted for. We re-examine two UK observational datasets that have previously been used to investigate the relationship between Ndep and plant species richness in acid grasslands, a much-researched habitat in this context. One of these studies (Stevens et al., 2004, Science, 303: 1876–1879) estimated a large negative impact of Ndep on richness through the use of PSVS; the other reported smaller impacts (Maskell et al., 2010, Global Change Biology, 16: 671–679), but did not explicitly report regression coefficients or partial effects, making the actual size of the estimated Ndep impact difficult to assess. We reanalyse both datasets using a spatial Bayesian linear model estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Contrary to previous results, we found similar-sized estimates of the Ndep impact on plant richness between studies, both with and without bryophytes, albeit with some disagreement over the most likely direction of this effect. Our analyses suggest that some previous estimates of Ndep impacts on richness from space-for-time substitution studies are likely to have been over-estimated, and that the evidence from observational studies could be fragile when confronted with alternative model specifications, although further work is required to investigate potentially nonlinear responses. Given the growing literature on the use of observational data to estimate the impacts of pollutants on biodiversity, we suggest that a greater focus on clearly reporting important outcomes with associated uncertainty, the use of techniques to accou URL link.nt for spatial autocorrelation, and a clearer focus on the aims of a study, whether explanatory or predictive, are all required

Stopping clinical trials early for futility: retrospective analysis of several randomised clinical studies

Background: Many clinical trials show no overall benefit. We examined futility analyses applied to trials with different effect sizes. Methods: Ten randomised cancer trials were retrospectively analysed; target sample size reached in all. The hazard ratio indicated no overall benefit (n=5), or moderate (n=4) or large (n=1) treatment effects. Futility analyses were applied after 25, 50 and 75% of events were observed, or patients were recruited. Outcomes were conditional power (CP), and time and cost savings. Results: Futility analyses could stop some trials with no benefit, but not all. After observing 50% of the target number of events, 3 out of 5 trials with no benefit could be stopped early (low CPless than or equal to15%). Trial duration for two studies could be reduced by 4–24 months, saving £44 000–231 000, but the third had already stopped recruiting, hence no savings were made. However, of concern was that 2 of the 4 trials with moderate treatment effects could be stopped early at some point, although they eventually showed worthwhile benefits. Conclusions: Careful application of futility can lead to future patients in a trial not being given an ineffective treatment, and should therefore be used more often. A secondary consideration is that it could shorten trial duration and reduce costs. However, studies with modest treatment effects could be inappropriately stopped early. Unless there is very good evidence for futility, it is often best to continue to the planned end

Dementia risk in a diverse population: A single-region nested case-control study in the East End of London

Background: Most evidence about dementia risk comes from relatively affluent people of White European ancestry. We aimed to determine the association between ethnicity, area level socioeconomic deprivation and dementia risk, and the extent to which variation in risk might be attributable to known modifiable clinical risk factors and health behaviours. Methods: In this nested case-control study, we analysed data from primary care medical records of a population of 1,016,277 from four inner East London boroughs, United Kingdom, collected between 2009 and 2018. The outcome measures were odds ratios for dementia according to ethnicity and deprivation, before and after the addition of major modifiable risk factors for dementia; and weighted population attributable risk for comparison between individual risk factors. Findings: We identified 4137 dementia cases and 15,754 matched controls (mean age for cases and controls were 80·7 years, (SD 8·7); 81·3 years, (SD 8·9) respectively, range 27–103). Black and South Asian ethnicity were both associated with increased risk of dementia relative to White (odds ratios [95% CI]: Black 1·43 [1·31–1·56]; South Asian 1.17 [1·06–1·29]). Area-level deprivation was independently associated with an increased risk of dementia in a dose-dependent manner. Black and South Asian ethnicity were both associated with a younger age at dementia diagnosis (odds ratios [95%CI]: 0·70 [0·61–0·80] and 0·55 [0·47–0·65], respectively). Population attributable risk was higher for ethnicity (9·7%) and deprivation (11·7%) than for any established modifiable risk factor in this population. Interpretation: Ethnicity and area-level deprivation are independently associated with dementia risk in East London. This effect may not be attributable to the effect of known risk factors

Analysis of circulating angiogenic biomarkers from patients in two phase III trials in lung cancer of chemotherapy alone or chemotherapy and thalidomide

Background: Thalidomide has potent anti-inflammatory and anti-angiogenic properties. It was evaluated in combination with chemotherapy in two randomised placebo-controlled trials in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC, n=724) and advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC, n=722). Neither study demonstrated an improvement in overall survival with the addition of thalidomide to chemotherapy. This study investigated circulating angiogenic biomarkers in a subset of these patients. Methods: Serial plasma samples were collected in a cohort of patients enrolled in these two trials (n=95). Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), soluble truncated form of VEGF receptor-2 (sVEGFR-2), interleukin-8 (IL-8), tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Results were correlated with patient clinical data including stage, response rate and progression-free survival (PFS). Results: Baseline biomarker levels were not significantly different between SCLC and NSCLC. For pooled treatment groups, limited stage SCLC was associated with lower baseline VEGF (P=0.046), sICAM-1 (P=0.008) and IL-8 (P=0.070) than extensive stage disease. Low baseline IL-8 was associated with a significantly improved PFS in both SCLC and NSCLC (P=0.028), and a greater reduction in IL-8 was associated with a significantly improved tumour response (P=0.035). Baseline angiogenic factor levels, however, did not predict response to thalidomide. Conclusion: Circulating angiogenic biomarkers did not identify patients who benefited from thalidomide treatment

PHOTOSTENT-02: porfimer sodium photodynamic therapy plus stenting versus stenting alone in patients with locally advanced or metastatic biliary tract cancer

Background: Endobiliary stenting is standard practice for palliation of obstructive jaundice due to biliary tract cancer (BTC). Photodynamic therapy (PDT) may also improve biliary drainage and previous small studies suggested survival benefit. // Aims: To assess the difference in outcome between patients with BTC undergoing palliative stenting plus PDT versus stenting alone. // Methods: 92 patients with confirmed locally advanced or metastatic BTC, ECOG performance status 0–3 and adequate biliary drainage were randomised (46 per group) to receive porfimer sodium PDT plus stenting or stenting alone. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). Toxicity and progression-free survival (PFS) were secondary end points. Treatment arms were well balanced for baseline factors and prior therapy. // Results: No significant differences in grade 3–4 toxicities and no grade 3–4 adverse events due to PDT were observed. Thirteen (28%) PDT patients and 24 (52%) stent alone patients received subsequent palliative chemotherapy. After a median follow-up of 8.4 months, OS and PFS were worse in patients receiving PDT compared with stent alone group (OS median 6.2 vs 9.8 months (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.43, p=0.048) and PFS median 3.4 vs 4.3 months (HR 1.43, 95% CI: 0.93 to 2.18, p=0.10), respectively). // Conclusion: In patients with locally advanced or metastatic BTC, PDT was associated with worse outcome than stenting alone, explained only in part by the differences in chemotherapy treatments. We conclude that optimal stenting remains the treatment of choice for malignant biliary obstruction and the use of PDT for this indication cannot be recommended outside of clinical trials. // Trial registration number: ISRCTN 87712758; EudraCT 2005-001173-96; UKCRN ID: 1461

The National Plant Monitoring Scheme: a technical review

The National Plant Monitoring Scheme, coordinated by the Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland, the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, JNCC and Plantlife, was launched in 2015 to provide an indication of the status and trends of plants and semi-natural habitats across the UK. The scheme is based on volunteer recording according to a set protocol at pre-determined monads selected through a weighted-random sampling scheme

Design and testing of a national pollinator and pollination monitoring framework

Final summary report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Scottish Government and Welsh Government: Project WC1101

The design, launch and assessment of a new volunteer-based plant monitoring scheme for the United Kingdom

Volunteer-based plant monitoring in the UK has focused mainly on distribution mapping; there has been less emphasis on the collection of data on plant communities and habitats. Abundance data provide different insights into ecological pattern and allow for more powerful inference when considering environmental change. Abundance monitoring for other groups of organisms is well-established in the UK, e.g. for birds and butterflies, and conservation agencies have long desired comparable schemes for plants. We describe a new citizen science scheme for the UK (the ‘National Plant Monitoring Scheme’; NPMS), with the primary aim of monitoring the abundance of plants at small scales. Scheme development emphasised volunteer flexibility through scheme co-creation and feedback, whilst retaining a rigorous approach to design. Sampling frameworks, target habitats and species, field methods and power are all described. We also evaluate several outcomes of the scheme design process, including: (i) landscape-context bias in the first two years of the scheme; (ii) the ability of different sets of indicator species to capture the main ecological gradients of UK vegetation; and, (iii) species richness bias in returns relative to a professional survey. Survey rates have been promising (over 60% of squares released have been surveyed), although upland squares are under-represented. Ecological gradients present in an ordination of an independent, unbiased, national survey were well-represented by NPMS indicator species, although further filtering to an entry-level set of easily identifiable species degraded signal in an ordination axis representing succession and disturbance. Comparison with another professional survey indicated that different biases might be present at different levels of participation within the scheme. Understanding the strengths and limitations of the NPMS will guide development, increase trust in outputs, and direct efforts for maintaining volunteer interest, as well as providing a set of ideas for other countries to experiment with