Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in men who have sex with men: prevalence and lack of anogenital concordance.

To estimate the prevalence of oral detectable human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) attending a sexual health clinic in London and concordance with anogenital HPV infection. Such data are important to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of oral HPV and the potential use of vaccines to prevent oropharyngeal cancers

Systematic review and evidence synthesis of non-cervical human papillomavirus-related disease health systems costs and quality of life estimates

BACKGROUND: Many economic evaluations of human papillomavirus vaccination should ideally consider multiple disease outcomes, including anogenital warts, respiratory papillomatosis and non-cervical cancers (eg, anal, oropharyngeal, penile, vulvar and vaginal cancers). However, published economic evaluations largely relied on estimates from single studies or informal rapid literature reviews. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of articles up to June 2016 to identify costs and utility estimates admissible for an economic evaluation from a single-payer healthcare provider's perspective. Meta-analyses were performed for studies that used same utility elicitation tools for similar diseases. Costs were adjusted to 2016/2017 US$. RESULTS: Sixty-one papers (35 costs; 24 utilities; 2 costs and utilities) were selected from 10 742 initial records. Cost per case ranges were US$124-US$883 (anogenital warts), US$6912-US$52 579 (head and neck cancers), US$12 936-US$51 571 (anal cancer), US$17 524-34 258 (vaginal cancer), US$14 686-US$28 502 (vulvar cancer) and US$9975-US$27 629 (penile cancer). The total cost for 14 adult patients with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis was US$137 601 (one paper).Utility per warts episode ranged from 0.651 to 1 (12 papers, various utility elicitation methods), with pooled mean EQ-5D and EQ-VAS of 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.75), respectively. Fifteen papers reported utilities in head and neck cancers with range 0.29 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.76) to 0.94 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.0). Mean utility reported ranged from 0.5 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.61) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.75) (anal cancer), 0.59 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.64) (vaginal cancer), 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70) (vulvar cancer) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.84) (penile cancer). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in values reported from each paper reflect variations in cancer site, disease stages, study population, treatment modality/setting and utility elicitation methods used. As patient management changes over time, corresponding effects on both costs and utility need to be considered to ensure health economic assumptions are up-to-date and closely reflect the case mix of patients

Burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in England per winter, 2010/11-2015/16.

BACKGROUND: Bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis put hospitals under pressure each winter. In England, the National Health Service (NHS) has monitored the winter situation for all acute trusts since 2010/11. AIM: To estimate the burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in winter. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of routinely collected time-series data of bed closures due to diarrhoea and vomiting was conducted for the winters 2010/11 to 2015/16. Two key issues were addressed by imputing non-randomly missing values at provider level, and filtering observations to a range of dates recorded in all six winters. The lowest and highest values imputed were taken to represent the best- and worst-case scenarios. Bed-days were costed using NHS reference costs, and potential staff absence costs were based on previous studies. FINDINGS: In the best-to-worst case, a median of 88,000-113,000 beds were closed due to gastroenteritis each winter. Of these, 19.6-20.4% were unoccupied. On average, 80% of providers were affected, and had closed beds for a median of 15-21 days each winter. Hospital costs of closed beds were £5.7-£7.5 million, which increased to £6.9-£10.0 million when including staff absence costs due to illness. CONCLUSIONS: The median number of hospital beds closed due to acute gastroenteritis per winter was equivalent to all general and acute hospital beds in England being unavailable for a median of 0.88-1.12 days. Costs for hospitals are high but vary with closures each winter

Restructuring and hospital care: Sub-national trends, differentials, and their impacts; New Zealand from 1981

An analysis of the "nation's health" is the central concern of this study. Its genesis was a detailed, technical, time-series research on regional and ethnic differentials in health in New Zealand. But as this work progressed it became increasingly evident that the results of this more narrow analysis could make a wider contribution to the development of a knowledge-base on health trends and on the impacts of policy on these. In a sense, the analysis provides a demographic audit of health trends over the last two decades. The focus here is different from that in most other studies on restructuring of the New Zealand health system as their concern was either to review in detail the rewriting of policy per se, and attendant structural and institutional changes (Fougere 2001), or to identify how these changes relate to changes in mortality (Blakely et al. 2008). The research question reported here was, instead, to analyse the most crucial of health outcomes, „how long we live and how often we end up in hospital‟, identified in the earlier quotation, to report patterns and trends in hospital use nationally and sub-nationally over the period under review, and to determine the degrees to which various sub-populations benefited, or did not benefit, from these changes. The analysis focuses on the hospital sector in the system, but it will also show relations between this and other sectors, formal (e.g. primary health) and less formal (notably the healthcare afforded sickness and invalid beneficiaries). Thus two questions are addressed: 1. whether or not the nation‟s population health improved over the period and; 2. whether or not there was a convergence in patterns of health gain across its constituent sub-populations defined geographically and ethnically. This monograph deals with sub-national differences in health in New Zealand over a period of substantial socio-economic restructuring and associated radical changes in health policy, health systems and their related information systems (see also, Text Appendix A). It complements the recently published analysis of national ethnic trends in mortality (Blakely et al. 2004), but differs in several critical respects. That study reviewed health status by emphasising aetiologies and causes of death. In contrast, the present analysis focuses on actuarial dimensions of both mortality and morbidity and on health as measured by functional capacity rather than the disease orientated „burden of disease‟. It goes beyond health status issues to look at the system itself, to assess whether health policy outcomes were generated more through efficiency-gain (economic or service delivery, such as those resulting in a convergence sub-nationally of supply and demand effects), or through health gains, or ideally, by both. To do this, and as a by-product to analyse changes in health status and the system in an era of restructuring, innovative methodologies and composite time-series indices combining the two dimensions of a „nation‟s health‟, needing hospital care and longevity, have had to be custom-designed. To achieve this objective, the ensuing analysis is often technical, and may introduce concepts that are unfamiliar to some readers. In order to look at possible inequalities of outcome, comparisons were made between regions and ethnic groups, as well as age-groups and genders, and as a result, in places the analysis becomes rather complex

Mathematical investigations of gas flare constituents in oil producing regions of Malaysia

Air pollution due to gas–flaring is a major concern in most region of the world. The short and long term effect of the massive air pollution on the life form within the area requires urgent attention because of the health implication. This research examines the impact of air pollutants in oil producing region of Malaysia using remotely sensed satellite data. The satellite data set was obtained from CALIPSO, MODIS and AIRS. A mathematical software (MATLAB) was used to analyse the results. For Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Kemaman had the highest rate of pollution (0.075DU), then Petronas (0.074DU), Kertih (0.067 DU), Port (0.065DU), Rapids (0.052DU), Melaka 1 (0.032DU) respectively. For Carbon dioxide (CO2), Kertih and Petronas was the most polluted with (382.33ppmv), Melaka 1 and Port had (382.27ppmv), Rapid had (382.04ppmv) and Kemaman (381.53ppmv) respectively. For Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Petronas had the highest mean value with (311.18mol/cm2), Melaka 1 (243.4mol/cm2), Port (201.5mol/cm2), Rapids (183.3mol/cm2), Kertih (117.73mol/cm2), Kemaman (95.7mol/cm2) respectively. For Ozone (O3), the stations with the highest rate of concentration were Rapids, Melaka 1, Petronas, Kertih and Kemaman with (252.43E+2mol/cm2). Mathematical projections were made to capture the dilemma- people in this region might encounter in the nearest future

Stakeholders' perception on including broader economic impact of vaccines in economic evaluations in low and middle income countries: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Current health economic evaluation guidelines mainly concentrate on immediate health gains and cost savings for the individual involved in the intervention. However, it has been argued that these guidelines are too narrow to capture the full impact of vaccination in low and middle income countries. The inclusion of broader economic impact of vaccines (BEIV) has therefore been proposed. Some examples of these are productivity-related gains, macro-economic impact, and different externalities. Despite their potency, the extent to which such benefits can and should be incorporated into economic evaluations of vaccination is still unclear. This mixed methods study aims to assess the relevance of BEIV to different stakeholders involved in the vaccine introduction decision making process. METHODS: In this mixed method study an internet based survey was sent to attendees of the New and Underutilized Vaccines Initiative meeting in Montreux, Switzerland in 2011. Additionally, semi-structured interviews of 15 minutes each were conducted during the meeting. Study participants included decision makers, experts and funders of vaccines and immunization programs in low and middle income countries. Descriptive analysis of the survey, along with identification of common themes and factors extracted from the interviews and open survey questions was undertaken. RESULTS: Evidence on macro-economic impact, burden of disease and ecological effects were perceived as being most valuable towards aiding decision making for vaccine introduction by the 26 survey respondents. The 14 interviewees highlighted the importance of burden of disease and different types of indirect effects. Furthermore, some new interpretations of BEIVs were discussed, such as the potential negative impact of wastage during immunization programs and the idea of using vaccines as a platform for delivering other types of health interventions. Interviewees also highlighted the importance of using a broader perspective in connection to measuring economic impacts, particularly when attempting to derive the value of newer, more expensive vaccines. CONCLUSION: According to participants, BEIVs were seen as being equally important as traditional outcome measures used in cost-effectiveness analyses. Such insight can be used to shape research agendas within this field and to eventually create broader, more inclusive practical guidelines for economic evaluations of vaccines

Excess length of stay and mortality due to Clostridium difficile infection: a multi-state modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: The burden of healthcare-associated infections, such as healthcare-acquired Clostridium difficile (HA-CDI), can be expressed in terms of additional length of stay (LOS) and mortality. However, previous estimates have varied widely. Although some have considered time of infection onset (time-dependent bias), none considered the impact of severity of HA-CDI; this was the primary aim of this study. METHODS: The daily risk of in-hospital death or discharge was modelled using a Cox proportional hazards model, fitted to data on patients discharged in 2012 from a large English teaching hospital. We treated HA-CDI status as a time-dependent variable and adjusted for confounders. In addition, a multi-state model was developed to provide a clinically intuitive metric of delayed discharge associated with non-severe and severe HA-CDI respectively. FINDINGS: Data comprised 157 (including 48 severe) HA-CDI cases among 42,618 patients. HA-CDI reduced the daily discharge rate by nearly one-quarter [hazard ratio (HR): 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61-0.84] and increased the in-hospital death rate by 75% compared with non-HA-CDI patients (HR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.16-2.62). Whereas overall HA-CDI resulted in a mean excess LOS of about seven days (95% CI: 3.5-10.9), severe cases had an average excess LOS which was twice (∼11.6 days; 95% CI: 3.6-19.6) that of the non-severe cases (about five days; 95% CI: 1.1-9.5). CONCLUSION: HA-CDI contributes to patients' expected LOS and risk of mortality. However, when quantifying the health and economic burden of hospital-onset of HA-CDI, the heterogeneity in the impact of HA-CDI should be accounted for

The economic burden of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations in China: a retrospective survey

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Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13. Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether. Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch

Human papillomavirus DNA in men who have sex with men: type-specific prevalence, risk factors and implications for vaccination strategies.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of girls will have relatively little effect on HPV-related disease in men who have sex with men (MSM). We determined HPV prevalence and risk factors in MSM to inform the potential effectiveness of vaccinating MSM. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 522 MSM aged 18-40 attending a London sexual health clinic who completed a computer-assisted self-interview. Urine and two swabs (anal and penile/scrotal/perianal) were collected and tested using an in-house Luminex-based HPV genotyping system. RESULTS: Prevalence of DNA of the vaccine-preventable HPV types in ano-genital specimens of men was 87/511 (17.0%), 166/511 (32.5%) and 232/511 (45.4%) for the bivalent (HPV16/18), quadrivalent (HPV6/11/16/18) and nonavalent (HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) vaccine types, respectively. A total of 25.1% had one of the quadrivalent types, and 7.4% had 2+ types. Median age at first anal sex was 19 (IQR 17-23) and at first clinic attendance was 24 (IQR 20-27). The increase in the odds of any HPV infection per year of age was 4.7% (95% CI 1.2-8.4). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the current infection status, most MSM, even among a high-risk population attending a sexual health clinic, are not currently infected with the vaccine-type HPV. A targeted vaccination strategy for MSM in the UK could have substantial benefits