Which “Greenness” is Valued? Evidence from Green Condominiums in Tokyo

This is one of the first researches on price differentials of green buildings in Asia. Using a rich set of data on condominium transactions and mandatory evaluation of environmental performance in Tokyo, we estimate the effects of itemized green scores on transaction prices. Although green condominiums are on average traded at a premium, the premium is mainly attributed to the building age and quality. After controlling for relevant attributes, we find significant price discounts for newly constructed green condominiums. However, green condominiums experience little depreciation at least during the initial years. Using itemized scores, we find that the long-life design mitigates price discounts, but other factors such as the use of eco-friendly materials, renewable energy, water reuse, and greening exacerbate discounts. Several possibilities are discussed including high future maintenance costs of green condominiums.sustainability; green building; hedonic pricing; transaction price; residential real estate; Japan

Rational Predictability of Real Estate Prices

Serial correlations in asset prices are often associated with irrational investment decisions (e.g., speculative bubbles) or inefficient markets. This paper shows that even asset prices determined rationally in an efficient market become predictable if underlying cash flows contain predictable components. In particular, I show that cash flows from real estate tend to contain a predictable "overshooting" component, due to slow adjustments in asset supply. Such predictable cash flows result in overshooting prices of real estate. Even though rational capitalization rates counteract the overshooting, the property price still exhibits predictability. The analysis indicates that the rational benchmark price must be carefully modeled when one tests irrationality or inefficiency in asset prices.

Effects of uncertainty on the investment decision : an examination of the option-based investment model using Japanese real estate data

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1999.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-52).This paper examines the validity of the option-based investment model as opposed to the neoclassical investment model in the decision-making of commercial real estate development, using aggregate real estate data from Japan. I particularly focus on the effect of uncertainty because it is the central difference between the two models. I specify a structural model in order to incorporate the interactions between supply and demand in the real estate asset market. In order to conduct detailed empirical tests for a long period of time, I set three data series. The Long Series uses quarterly data of 25 years and Short Series 1 and Short Series 2 use monthly data of about 15 years. I find strong evidence that supports the option-based investment model. Especially in the supply equation, total uncertainty has significant effects on the investment decision. A lag structure is found in the effect of total uncertainty. The parameters for other variables also generally favor the option-based model. In the demand equation, too, the results strongly support the option-based investment model. It should be concluded from these results that various kinds of real options must be incorporated in investment and economic models.by Jiro Yoshida.S.M

Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics:The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium

A general equilibrium model, that incorporates endogenous production and local housing markets, is developed in order to explain the price relationship among human capital, housing, and stocks, and to uncover the role of housing in asset pricing. Housing serves as an asset as well as a durable consumption good. It is shown that housing market conditions critically affect asset price correlations and risk premia. The first result is that the covariation of housing prices and stock prices can be negative if land supply is elastic. Data from OECD countries roughly support the model's predictions on the relationship among land supply elasticity, asset price correlations, and house-hold's equity holdings. The second result is that housing rent growth serves as a risk factor in the pricing kernel. The risk premium becomes higher as land supply becomes inelastic and as housing services become more complementary with other goods. Finally, the housing component in the pricing kernel is shown to mitigate the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle.