Deteriorating Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks Signals an Increasing Risk of Failure

While it is generally consented that management quality is often the key determinant of banks' success in a risky world, somewhat paradoxically early warning systems are mainly built on financial ratios driving management quality assessment to the periphery. In this paper we show, using estimated cost efficiency scores for the Czech banking sector, that cost inefficient management was a predictor of bank failures during the years of banking sector consolidation, and thus suggest the inclusion of cost efficiency in early warning systems.Bank failure, cost efficiency, stochastic frontier, hazard model.

Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification

In this paper we propose an alternative method for deriving the business cycle. We interpret the varying inflationary responses to a constant demand shock in a partial equilibrium model. An above-average inflationary response indicates a boom phase and a below-average response shows an economic slowdown. Our model uses data for prices and household budget shares which are not subject to revisions and are consistent with the inflation measure. Hence, it mitigates the common drawbacks of usually applied techniques, such as real-time data mismeasurement or end-point bias of univariate filters. It follows that the results are altered neither by GDP data revisions, labor share determination and NAIRU estimation and total productivity smoothing, nor by the end-point bias of data filtering. The proposed method is thus preferred to other complementary methods such as GDP series filtering or the production function approach in showing truly the inflation environment. It is applied to the Czech quarterly data during 1994- 2003 and compared to other available business cycle estimates for the Czech economy. Comparing our business cycle estimation method with the production function method, used by the Economic Intelligence Unit and the Czech Ministry of Finance, and the Kalman filter, used by the Czech National Bank, we found the highest correlation between our measure and the Economic Intelligence Unit's indicator.Business cycle, inflation environment, simultaneous model.

Does CPI Approximate Cost-of-Living?: Evidence from the Czech Republic

An original method based on an n-markets simultaneous partial equilibrium model is designed to evaluate the second order bias in the Consumer Price Index's (CPI) approximation of the Cost-of-Living (COL) and to test the statistical significance of its mean value over a variety of horizons. In the empirical application of the model I consider nine goods markets that correspond to the first strata level breakdown of the CPI in the Czech Republic for the period 1994-2000. Having evaluated the substitution bias, i.e., the difference between the growth rate of the CPI and the growth rate of the COL, I find that on a yearly basis it ranges from -0.83 to 0.51 p.p. In addition, I find that, on average, the bias statistically vanishes on the time horizon of five quarters. Different levels of inflation such as moderate (10%) and lower (2%) characterized the sample period and therefore I conclude that the derived result is robust up to moderate inflation.second order bias; partial equilibrium; CPI bias

Cross-Border Lending Contagion in Multinational Banks

We study the interdependence of lending decisions in different country branches of a multinational bank. This is done both theoretically and empirically. First, we formulate a model of a bank that delegates the management of its foreign unit to a local manager with non-transferable skills. The bank differs from other international investors due to a liquidity threshold which induces a depositor run and a regulatory action if attained. Therefore, lending decisions are influenced by delegation and precautionary motives. We then show that these two phenomena create a separate channel of shock propagation, a function of bank shareholder and manager incentives. The workings of this channel can lead to either “contagionâ€, meaning parallel reactions of the loan volumes in both countries to the parent bank home country disturbance, or standard “diversificationâ€, when the reactions of a standard international portfolio optimizer within the two country units go in opposite directions. In particular, it can happen that the impact of an exogenous shock on credit has a different sign in the “relationship†as opposed to the “arm’s-length†banking environment. Second, we construct a large sample of multinational banks and their branches/subsidiaries and look for the presence of lending contagion by panel regression methods. We obtain mixed results concerning contagion depending on the parent bank home country and the host economy of cross-border penetration. While the majority of multinational banks behave in line with the contagion effect, more than one-third do not. In addition, the presence of contagion seems to be related to the geographical location of subsidiaries.Delegation, diversification, lending contagion, multinational bank, panel regression.

Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic

In this paper we investigate the determinants of the movements in the long-term Standard & Poors and CAMELS bank ratings in the Czech Republic during the period when the three biggest banks, representing approximately 60% of the Czech banking sector's total assets, were privatized (i.e., the time span 1998-2001). The same list of explanatory variables corresponding to the CAMELS rating inputs employed by the Czech National Bank's banking sector regulators was examined for both ratings in order to select significant predictors among them. We employed an ordered response logit model to analyze the monthly long-run S&P rating and a panel data framework for the analysis of the quarterly CAMELS rating. The predictors for which we found significant explanatory power are: Capital Adequacy, Credit Spread, the ratio of Total Loans to Total Assets, and the Total Asset Value at Risk. Models based on these predictors exhibited a predictive accuracy of 70%. Additionally, we found that the verified variables satisfactorily predict the S&P rating one month ahead.Bank rating, CAMELS, ordered logit model, panel data analysis.

The Price Effects of an Emerging Retail Market

In this paper we analyze the effects of changing market structure on price dynamics of final goods in the emerging Czech retail market. We estimate the extent of upstream and downstream market power and find that changing market structure was responsible for an average yearly decrease in the prices of retailed products of 0.8 p.p. during 2000–2005. At the same time, however, we anticipate that the already started period of mergers and acquisitions could cause yearly increases in the prices of retailed products of 1.2 p.p. (approximately 0.5 p.p. in the CPI) over the next ten years.Market structure, retail market, transition economy.

Measuring Excessive Risk-Taking in Banking

In this paper we propose a new approach to the assessment of excessive risk-taking by a banking sector. We use the portfolio approach to assess the optimal risk-return combination of a bank’s portfolio, based on data for 32 categories of loans. It provides a benchmark for the optimality of the bank’s portfolio. We apply this method on an exhaustive sample of Czech banks for the period January 2005–-February 2008. We observe an average excess of risk-taking of 33% of the optimal risk (excessive risk-taking thus measures the percentage reduction in the risk of the portfolio that the banking sector could have exhibited had the portfolio been efficient) and a reduction of this excess risk over the analysed period.Bank, financial stability, risk-taking, transition countries.

Degree of Competition and Export-Production Relative Prices when the Exchange Rate Changes: Evidence from a Panel of Czech Exporting Companies

In this paper we show the relevance of the degree of competition for inferences about changes in export-production relative prices when the nominal exchange rate changes. We devise a model for tradable goods that combines the market competition and the pricing-tomarket literature and we empirically document the contrast between perfectly and imperfectly competitive markets for the export-production relative price responses to exchange rate changes. When the macroeconomic view is taken, a change in the degree of competition in exports (a change in the average mark-up on exported products) alternates the reaction in relative prices and quantity exported and thus requires careful policy-related consideration.Degree of competition, exchange rate, pricing-to-market.

Measuring Excessive Risk-Taking in Banking

In this paper the authors propose a new approach to the assessment of excessive risk-taking by a banking sector. They use the portfolio approach to assess the optimal risk-return combination of a bank’s portfolio, based on data for 32 categories of loans. It provides a benchmark for the optimality of the bank’s portfolio. The authors apply this method on an exhaustive sample of Czech banks for the period January 2005–February 2008. They observe an average excess of risk-taking of 33% of the optimal risk and a slight reduction of this excess risk over the analyzed period.bank, financial stability, risk-taking, transition countries

The Origins of Global Imbalances

In this paper we study the endogenous response of unequally developed regions to a drop in investment and trade costs in a general equilibrium model. The response is characterized by a rise in foreign direct investment in the underdeveloped region and increased consumption in the developed one, leading to trade imbalances between the regions. We hereby propose that declining investment and trade costs could have caused this century’s global imbalances.Economic development, foreign direct investment, global imbalances, multi-country general-equilibrium model.