Longitudinal Average Glucose Levels and Variance and Risk of Stroke: A Chinese Cohort Study

Background. Diabetes is a known independent risk factor for stroke. However, whether higher glucose levels (126–139.9 mg/dl) can increase the risk of stroke in people without diabetes is still unknown. Moreover, as a fluctuating parameter, long-term glucose levels may also be related to the risk of stroke outcome. It is important to explore the correlation between long-term average blood glucose, as well as its variability, and stroke. Methods. We used 40,975 clinical measurements of glucose levels and 367 measurements of glycated hemoglobin A1c levels from 12,321 participants without stroke to examine the relationship between glucose levels and the risk of stroke. Participants were from the Weitang Geriatric Diseases study, including 5,707 men and 6,614 women whose mean age at baseline was 60.8 years; 1,011 participants had diabetes, and 11,310 did not. We estimated the long-term average blood glucose level based on the multilevel Bayesian model and fit in Cox regression models, stratified according to diabetes status. Results. Over a median follow-up period of 5 years, stroke developed in 279 of the 12,321 participants (244 without diabetes and 35 with). For people with an average glucose level of 126–139.9 mg per deciliter, compared with 90–99.9 mg per deciliter, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for total stroke was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.16–2.75), and the HR for levels higher than 140 mg per deciliter was 1.89 (95% CI, 1.09–3.29). Among those without diabetes whose glucose level was higher than 140 mg per deciliter, compared with 90–99.9 mg per deciliter, the adjusted HRs for total stroke and fatal stroke were 3.66 (95% CI, 1.47–9.08) and 5 (95% CI, 1.77–14.15), respectively. For a glucose standard deviation level higher than 13.83 mg per deciliter, compared with that lower than 5.91 mg per deciliter, the adjusted HR for total stroke was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.19–4.48). Conclusions. Our results suggest that higher average glucose levels (126–139.9 mg/dl) and variance may be risk factors for stroke, even among people without diabetes diagnosis

Age‐Related Trends in the Predictive Value of Carotid Intima‐Media Thickness for Cardiovascular Death: A Prospective Population‐Based Cohort Study

Background The age‐related trends in the predictive ability of carotid intima‐media thickness (CIMT) for cardiovascular risk remain unclear. We aimed to identify the age‐related trends in the predictive value of CIMT for cardiovascular death. Methods and Results In a prospective cohort of adults aged 35 to 75 years without history of cardiovascular disease who were enrolled between 2014 and 2020, we measured CIMT at baseline and collected the vital status and cause of death. We divided the study population into 4 age groups (35–44, 45–54, 55–64, and 65–75 years). Competing risk models were fitted to estimate the associations between CIMT and cardiovascular death. The added values of CIMT in prediction were assessed by the differences of the Harrell's concordance index and the net reclassification improvement index. We included 369 478 adults and followed them for a median of 4.7 years. A total of 4723 (1.28%) cardiovascular deaths occurred. After adjusting for the traditional risk factors, the hazard ratios for CIMTmean per SD decreased with age, from 1.27 (95% CI, 1.17–1.37) in the 35 to 44 years age group to 1.14 (95% CI, 1.10–1.19) in the 65 to 75 years age group (P for interaction <0.01). Meanwhile, the net reclassification improvement indexes for CIMTmean were attenuated with age, from 22.60% (95% CI, 15.56%–29.64%) in the 35 to 44 years age group to 7.00% (95% CI, −6.82% to 20.83%) in the 65 to 75 years age group. Similar results were found for maximum CIMT in all age groups. Conclusions CIMT may improve cardiovascular risk prediction in the young and middle‐aged populations, rather than those aged ≥55 years

Associations of long-term fine particulate matter exposure with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: results from the ChinaHEART projectResearch in context

Summary: Background: The chronic effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at high concentrations remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the relationship of long-term PM2.5 exposure with all-cause and the top three causes of death (cardiovascular disease [CVD], cancer, and respiratory disease), and to analyze their concentration-response functions over a wide range of concentrations. Methods: We enrolled community residents aged 35–75 years from 2014 to 2017 from all 31 provinces of the Chinese Mainland, and followed them up until 2021. We used a long-term estimation dataset for both PM2.5 and O3 concentrations with a high spatiotemporal resolution to assess the individual exposure, and used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the associations between PM2.5 and mortalities. Findings: We included 1,910,923 participants, whose mean age was 55.6 ± 9.8 years and 59.4% were female. A 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased risk for all-cause death (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% confidence interval 1.012–1.028]), CVD death (1.024 [1.011–1.037]), cancer death (1.037 [1.023–1.052]), and respiratory disease death (1.083 [1.049–1.117]), respectively. Long-term PM2.5 exposure nonlinearly related with all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortalities, while linearly related with respiratory disease mortality. Interpretation: The overall effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality in the high concentration settings are weaker than previous reports from settings of PM2.5 concentrations < 35 μg/m³. The distinct concentration-response relationships of CVD, cancer, and respiratory disease mortalities could facilitate targeted public health efforts to prevent death caused by air pollution. Funding: The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Science, the National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding, the Ministry of Finance of China and National Health Commission of China, the 111 Project from the Ministry of Education of China