Comprehensive Evaluation of Water–Energy–Food System Security in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

The safety of the water–energy–food (WEF) system in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000–2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 × 107 people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 × 1010 to 1.93 × 1010 hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 × 105, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water–energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water–food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy–food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region

Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

In the arid region of northwestern China (ARNC), water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems. The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics. Moreover, the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand. All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region. This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources, hydrological processes, agricultural system, and desert ecosystems in the ARNC, and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area. The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31 °C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers, snow cover, and precipitation form, especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water. Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change, with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998, and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends. Furthermore, the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area. Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security. The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”

Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China

The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 in 1990 to 46,613 km2 in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km2 of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km2 in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis

Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China

The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 in 1990 to 46,613 km2 in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km2 of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km2 in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis