UPS delivers optimal phase diagram in high-dimensional variable selection

Consider a linear model $Y=X\beta+z$, $z\sim N(0,I_n)$. Here, $X=X_{n,p}$, where both $p$ and $n$ are large, but $p>n$. We model the rows of $X$ as i.i.d. samples from $N(0,\frac{1}{n}\Omega)$, where $\Omega$ is a $p\times p$ correlation matrix, which is unknown to us but is presumably sparse. The vector $\beta$ is also unknown but has relatively few nonzero coordinates, and we are interested in identifying these nonzeros. We propose the Univariate Penalization Screeing (UPS) for variable selection. This is a screen and clean method where we screen with univariate thresholding and clean with penalized MLE. It has two important properties: sure screening and separable after screening. These properties enable us to reduce the original regression problem to many small-size regression problems that can be fitted separately. The UPS is effective both in theory and in computation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS947 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Higher criticism for detecting sparse heterogeneous mixtures

Higher criticism, or second-level significance testing, is a multiple-comparisons concept mentioned in passing by Tukey. It concerns a situation where there are many independent tests of significance and one is interested in rejecting the joint null hypothesis. Tukey suggested comparing the fraction of observed significances at a given \alpha-level to the expected fraction under the joint null. In fact, he suggested standardizing the difference of the two quantities and forming a z-score; the resulting z-score tests the significance of the body of significance tests. We consider a generalization, where we maximize this z-score over a range of significance levels 0<\alpha\leq\alpha_0. We are able to show that the resulting higher criticism statistic is effective at resolving a very subtle testing problem: testing whether n normal means are all zero versus the alternative that a small fraction is nonzero. The subtlety of this ``sparse normal means'' testing problem can be seen from work of Ingster and Jin, who studied such problems in great detail. In their studies, they identified an interesting range of cases where the small fraction of nonzero means is so small that the alternative hypothesis exhibits little noticeable effect on the distribution of the p-values either for the bulk of the tests or for the few most highly significant tests. In this range, when the amplitude of nonzero means is calibrated with the fraction of nonzero means, the likelihood ratio test for a precisely specified alternative would still succeed in separating the two hypotheses.Comment: Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00905360400000026

Asymptotic minimaxity of False Discovery Rate thresholding for sparse exponential data

We apply FDR thresholding to a non-Gaussian vector whose coordinates X_i, i=1,..., n, are independent exponential with individual means $\mu_i$. The vector $\mu =(\mu_i)$ is thought to be sparse, with most coordinates 1 but a small fraction significantly larger than 1; roughly, most coordinates are simply `noise,' but a small fraction contain `signal.' We measure risk by per-coordinate mean-squared error in recovering $\log(\mu_i)$, and study minimax estimation over parameter spaces defined by constraints on the per-coordinate p-norm of $\log(\mu_i)$: $\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n\log^p(\mu_i)\leq \eta^p$. We show for large n and small $\eta$ that FDR thresholding can be nearly Minimax. The FDR control parameter 0<q<1 plays an important role: when $q\leq 1/2$, the FDR estimator is nearly minimax, while choosing a fixed q>1/2 prevents near minimaxity. These conclusions mirror those found in the Gaussian case in Abramovich et al. [Ann. Statist. 34 (2006) 584--653]. The techniques developed here seem applicable to a wide range of other distributional assumptions, other loss measures and non-i.i.d. dependency structures.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000920 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Optimal rates of convergence for estimating the null density and proportion of nonnull effects in large-scale multiple testing

An important estimation problem that is closely related to large-scale multiple testing is that of estimating the null density and the proportion of nonnull effects. A few estimators have been introduced in the literature; however, several important problems, including the evaluation of the minimax rate of convergence and the construction of rate-optimal estimators, remain open. In this paper, we consider optimal estimation of the null density and the proportion of nonnull effects. Both minimax lower and upper bounds are derived. The lower bound is established by a two-point testing argument, where at the core is the novel construction of two least favorable marginal densities $f_1$ and $f_2$. The density $f_1$ is heavy tailed both in the spatial and frequency domains and $f_2$ is a perturbation of $f_1$ such that the characteristic functions associated with $f_1$ and $f_2$ match each other in low frequencies. The minimax upper bound is obtained by constructing estimators which rely on the empirical characteristic function and Fourier analysis. The estimator is shown to be minimax rate optimal. Compared to existing methods in the literature, the proposed procedure not only provides more precise estimates of the null density and the proportion of the nonnull effects, but also yields more accurate results when used inside some multiple testing procedures which aim at controlling the False Discovery Rate (FDR). The procedure is easy to implement and numerical results are given.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS696 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Estimating the Null and the Proportion of non-Null effects in Large-scale Multiple Comparisons

An important issue raised by Efron in the context of large-scale multiple comparisons is that in many applications the usual assumption that the null distribution is known is incorrect, and seemingly negligible differences in the null may result in large differences in subsequent studies. This suggests that a careful study of estimation of the null is indispensable. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a null normal distribution, and a closely related problem, estimation of the proportion of non-null effects. We develop an approach based on the empirical characteristic function and Fourier analysis. The estimators are shown to be uniformly consistent over a wide class of parameters. Numerical performance of the estimators is investigated using both simulated and real data. In particular, we apply our procedure to the analysis of breast cancer and HIV microarray data sets. The estimators perform favorably in comparison to existing methods.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure