Brawler statesman: Paul Keating and prime ministerial leadership in Australia

Prime ministerial power resides in the institutions of government, and relies on complex interactions between the leader and the leadership environment. The party and the electorate can terminate a leader's tenure, and other institutions such as the media, parliament and sources of advice can all impact on the relative success of the prime minister. How these power sources are navigated is influenced by personal leadership styles. Because these styles vary, there is more than one path to effective leadership and political dominance. The Paul Keating Prime Ministership (1991-1996) tells us much about prime ministerial power and Australian political leadership. The lessons from his tenure are that prime ministers must maintain support in the electorate and the party room, because power is dependent on interaction with, and the support of, others. Prime Minister Keating was a dominant leader in relation to his colleagues in the caucus and the cabinet; his leadership was individual and authoritative. His downfall was the result of the ultimate power wielded by the Australian electorate used to devastating effect. Thus prime ministers are only ever as powerful as they are allowed to be; by the party room and by the people. The media and modern competitive electoral pressures provide increasing scope for individual leadership, but neglect of either of these domains still invites political oblivion. Australian prime ministers can act 'presidentially', but only within the confines of public and party expectations. This thesis utilises new material and an interactionist framework to re-examine the prime ministerial power debate and conclude that powerful leadership relies heavily on a willingness of others to be led. Paul Keating's stores of immense authority and influence relied on his personal approach but also, most importantly, on the compliance of his colleagues in the cabinet and caucus

Reducing research waste by promoting informed responses to invitations to participate in clinical trials

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Temporal trends and risk factors for readmission for infections, gastrointestinal and immobility complications after an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland between 1997 and 2005

Background: Improvements in stroke management have led to increases in the numbers of stroke survivors over the last decade and there has been a corresponding increase of hospital readmissions after an initial stroke hospitalisation. The aim of this study was to examine the one year risk of having a readmission due to infective, gastrointestinal or immobility (IGI) complications and to identify temporal trends and any risk factors.<p></p> Methods: Using a cohort of first hospitalised for stroke patients who were discharged alive, time to first event (readmission for IGI complications or death) within 1 year was analysed in a competing risks framework using cumulative incidence methods. Regression on the cumulative incidence function was used to model the risks of having an outcome using the covariates age, sex, socioeconomic status, comorbidity, discharge destination and length of hospital stay.<p></p> Results: There were a total of 51,182 patients discharged alive after an incident stroke hospitalisation in Scotland between 1997–2005, and 7,747 (15.1%) were readmitted for IGI complications within a year of the discharge. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2005 with 1997, the adjusted risk of IGI readmission did not increase (HR = 1.00 95% CI (0.90, 1.11). However, there was a higher risk of IGI readmission with increasing levels of deprivation (most deprived fifth vs. least deprived fifth HR = 1.16 (1.08, 1.26).<p></p> Conclusions: Approximately 15 in 100 patients discharged alive after an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland between 1997 and 2005 went on to have an IGI readmission within one year. The proportion of readmissions did not change over the study period but those living in deprived areas had an increased risk

Reliability of self reported smoking status by pregnant women for estimating smoking prevalence: a retrospective, cross sectional study

Objective To determine what impact reliance on self reported smoking status during pregnancy has on both the accuracy of smoking prevalence figures and access to smoking cessation services for pregnant women in Scotland

The British economy [November 1985]

In his November Statement the Chancellor of the Exchequer has forecast continuing expansion of the economy during 1986. The recent growth of exports and investment is not expected to be maintained but consumer spending, boosted by higher real earnings and tax cuts in the Spring Budget, will rise

The Scottish economy [November 1985]

With the inauguration of the quarterly Scottish Business Survey (SBS) in September 1984 there are now two regular up-to-date indicators of trends in the Scottish industrial sector. The combination of the new survey and the long-standing CBI Industrial Trends Survey provides a comprehensive assessment of trends in Scottish industry

Outlook and appraisal [November 1985]

The Scottish economy, like that of the UK as a whole, looks set to experience a substantial shift in the relative importance of the factors determining growth in the coming year. As discussed elsewhere in the Commentary (see British Economy), growth in the recent past has been driven mainly by the expansion of investment and exports. With the interrelated factors of sterling's strength and continuing high real UK interest rates operating against a background of some deceleration in the growth of world trade, the prospect is that these influences will be largely replaced by the re-emergence of consumers' expenditure as the principal determinant of growth

The Scottish economy [May 1985]

With the inauguration of the quarterly Scottish Business Survey (SBS) in September 1984 there are now two regular and up-to-date indicators of trends in the Scottish industrial sector . The combination of the new survey and the long-standing CBI Industrial Trends Survey provides a comprehensive assessment of trends in Scottish industry

The world economy [November 1985]

After the marked deceleration in the first half of the year US growth shows signs of picking up in the latter part of 1985. However, the impetus to world trade and global expansion derived from the rapid period of US growth in late 1983 and early 1984 has now largely waned. Although European countries and Japan are set to continue their recent expansion, it is unlikely that their growth will offset the impact on the world economy of a slower rate of US growth