High seismic velocity structures control moderate to strong induced earthquake behaviors by shale gas development

Abstract Moderate to strong earthquakes have been induced worldwide by shale gas development, however, it is still unclear what factors control their behaviors. Here we use local seismic networks to reliably determine the source attributes of dozens of M > 3 earthquakes and obtain a high-resolution shear-wave velocity model using ambient noise tomography. These earthquakes are found to occur close to the target shale formations in depth and along high seismic velocity boundaries. The magnitudes and co-seismic slip distributions of the 2018 Xingwen $${M}_{{{{{{\rm{L}}}}}}}5.7$$ M L 5.7 and 2019 Gongxian $${M}_{{{{{{\rm{L}}}}}}}5.3$$ M L 5.3 earthquakes are further determined jointly by seismic waveforms and InSAR data, and the co-seismic slips of these two earthquakes correlate with high seismic velocity zones along the fault planes. Thus, the distribution of high velocity zones near the target shale formations, together with the stress state modulated by hydraulic fracturing controls induced earthquake behaviors and is critical for understanding the seismic potentials of hydraulic fracturing

Are medical record front page data suitable for risk adjustment in hospital performance measurement? Development and validation of a risk model of in-hospital mortality after acute myocardial infarction

Objectives To develop a model of in-hospital mortality using medical record front page (MRFP) data and assess its validity in case-mix standardisation by comparison with a model developed using the complete medical record data.Design A nationally representative retrospective study.Setting Representative hospitals in China, covering 161 hospitals in modelling cohort and 156 hospitals in validation cohort.Participants Representative patients admitted for acute myocardial infarction. 8370 patients in modelling cohort and 9704 patients in validation cohort.Primary outcome measures In-hospital mortality, which was defined explicitly as death that occurred during hospitalisation, and the hospital-level risk standardised mortality rate (RSMR).Results A total of 14 variables were included in the model predicting in-hospital mortality based on MRFP data, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 among modelling cohort and 0.79 among validation cohort. The median of absolute difference between the hospital RSMR predicted by hierarchical generalised linear models established based on MRFP data and complete medical record data, which was built as ‘reference model’, was 0.08% (10th and 90th percentiles: −1.8% and 1.6%). In the regression model comparing the RSMR between two models, the slope and intercept of the regression equation is 0.90 and 0.007 in modelling cohort, while 0.85 and 0.010 in validation cohort, which indicated that the evaluation capability from two models were very similar.Conclusions The models based on MRFP data showed good discrimination and calibration capability, as well as similar risk prediction effect in comparison with the model based on complete medical record data, which proved that MRFP data could be suitable for risk adjustment in hospital performance measurement