Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 Months of the epidemic and forward projections

BACKGROUND On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R-0) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months

Surveys of measles vaccination coverage in eastern and southern Africa: a review of quality and methods used

OBJECTIVE: To assess the methods used in the evaluation of measles vaccination coverage, identify quality concerns and provide recommendations for improvement. METHODS: We reviewed surveys that were conducted to evaluate supplementary measles immunization activities in eastern and southern Africa during 2012 and 2013. We investigated the organization(s) undertaking each survey, survey design, sample size, the numbers of study clusters and children per study cluster, recording of immunizations and methods of analysis. We documented sampling methods at the level of clusters, households and individual children. We also assessed the length of training for field teams at national and regional levels, the composition of teams and the supervision provided. FINDINGS: The surveys were conducted in Comoros, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Of the 13 reports we reviewed, there were weaknesses in 10 of them for ethical clearance, 9 for sample size calculation, 6 for sampling methods, 12 for training structures, 13 for supervision structures and 11 for data analysis. CONCLUSION: We recommend improvements in the documentation of routine and supplementary immunization, via home-based vaccination cards or other records. For surveys conducted after supplementary immunization, a standard protocol is required. Finally, we recommend that standards be developed for report templates and for the technical review of protocols and reports. This would ensure that the results of vaccination coverage surveys are accurate, comparable, reliable and valuable for programme improvement