Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models

No abstract.

Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle

Macroeconomic and microeconomic data paint conflicting pictures of price behavior. Macroeconomic data suggest that inflation is inertial. Microeconomic data indicate that firms change prices frequently. We formulate and estimate a model which resolves this apparent micro - macro conflict. Our model is consistent with post-war U.S. evidence on inflation inertia even though firms re-optimize prices on average once every 1.5 quarters. The key feature of our model is that capital is firm-specific and pre-determined within a period.

Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities and the business cycle

Macroeconomic and microeconomic data paint conflicting pictures of price behavior. Macroeconomic data suggest that inflation is inertial. Microeconomic data indicate that firms change prices frequently. We formulate and estimate a model which resolves this apparent micro - macro conflict. Our model is consistent with post-war U.S. evidence on inflation inertia even though firms re-optimize prices on average once every 1.5 quarters. The key feature of our model is that capital is firm-specific and predetermined within a period.Business cycles ; Macroeconomics ; Microeconomics

Online Appendix to "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle"

Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article

Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities, and the business cycle

Macroeconomic and microeconomic data paint conflicting pictures of price behavior. Macroeconomic data suggest that inflation is inertial. Microeconomic data indicate that firms change prices frequently. We formulate and estimate a model which resolves this apparent micro - macro conflict. Our model is consistent with post-war U.S. evidence on inflation inertia even though firms re-optimize prices on average once every 1.5 quarters. The key feature of our model is that capital is firm-specific and predetermined within a period.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy ; Business cycles

Firm default and aggregate fluctuations

This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990-2002, we find strong evidence for a substantial and stable impact of aggregate fluctuations. Macroeffects differ across industries in an economically intuitive way. Out-of-sample evaluations show our approach is superior to both models that exclude macro information and best fitting naive forecasting models. While firm-specific factors are useful in ranking firms’ relative riskiness, macroeconomic factors capture fluctuations in the absolute risk level.Business failures

Effects on costs of frontline diagnostic evaluation in patients suspected of angina: coronary computed tomography angiography vs. conventional ischaemia testing

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate in patients with stable angina the effects on costs of frontline diagnostics by exercise-stress testing (ex-test) vs. coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA). METHODS AND RESULTS: In two coronary units at Lillebaelt Hospital, Denmark, 498 patients were identified in whom either ex-test (n = 247) or CTA (n = 251) were applied as the frontline diagnostic strategy in symptomatic patients with a low-intermediate pre-test probability of coronary artery disease (CAD). During 12 months of follow-up, death, myocardial infarction and costs associated with downstream diagnostic utilization (DTU), treatment, ambulatory visits, and hospitalizations were registered. There was no difference between cohorts in demographic characteristics or the pre-test probability of significant CAD. The mean (SD) age was 56 (11) years; 52% were men; and 96% were at low-intermediate pre-test probability of CAD. All serious cardiac events (n = 3) during follow-up occurred in patients with a negative ex-test result. Mean costs per patient associated with DTU, ambulatory visits, and cardiovascular medication were significantly higher in the ex-test than in the CTA group. The mean (SD) total costs per patient at the end of thefollow-up were 14% lower in the CTA group than in the ex-test group, € 1510 (3474) vs. €1777 (3746) (P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Diagnostic assessment of symptomatic patients with a low-intermediate probability of CAD by CTA incurred lower costs when compared with the ex-test. These findings need confirmation in future prospective trials

The Western Denmark Cardiac Computed Tomography Registry:a review and validation study

BACKGROUND: As a subregistry to the Western Denmark Heart Registry (WDHR), the Western Denmark Cardiac Computed Tomography Registry (WDHR-CCTR) is a clinical database established in 2008 to monitor and improve the quality of cardiac computed tomography (CT) in Western Denmark. OBJECTIVE: We examined the content, data quality, and research potential of the WDHR-CCTR. METHODS: We retrieved 2008–2012 data to examine the 1) content; 2) completeness of procedure registration using the Danish National Patient Registry as reference; 3) completeness of variable registration comparing observed vs expected numbers; and 4) positive predictive values as well as negative predictive values of 19 main patient and procedure variables. RESULTS: By December 31, 2012, almost 22,000 cardiac CTs with up to 40 variables for each procedure have been registered. Of these, 87% were coronary CT angiography performed in patients with symptoms indicative of coronary artery disease. Compared with the Danish National Patient Registry, the overall procedure completeness was 72%. However, an additional medical record review of 282 patients registered in the Danish National Patient Registry, but not in the WDHR-CCTR, showed that coronary CT angiographies accounted for only 23% of all nonregistered cardiac CTs, indicating >90% completeness of coronary CT angiographies in the WDHR-CCTR. The completeness of individual variables varied substantially (range: 0%–100%), but was >85% for more than 70% of all variables. Using medical record review of 250 randomly selected patients as reference standard, the positive predictive value for the 19 variables ranged from 89% to 100% (overall 97%), whereas the negative predictive value ranged from 97% to 100% (overall 99%). Stratification by center status showed consistently high positive and negative predictive values for both university (96%/99%) and nonuniversity centers (97%/99%). CONCLUSION: WDHR-CCTR provides ongoing prospective registration of all cardiac CTs performed in Western Denmark since 2008. Overall, the registry data have a high degree of completeness and validity, making it a valuable tool for clinical epidemiological research

Pressure Recovery in the Left Main Stenosis

A 76-year-old male patient with dyspnea was referred on a suspicion of coronary artery disease. A coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) revealed a distal left main (LM) stenosis and in the right (right coronary artery [RCA]), left circumflex (LCX) and left anterior descending (LAD) coronary arteries stenosis could not be excluded. CTA-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRct) was 0.75, 0.72, 0.74, 0.86, and 0.94 in the LM, LAD, LCX, ramus, and RCA, respectively. Invasive coronary angiography confirmed a stenosis in the LM and LAD. FFR was 0.73 and 0.85 in the LCX and ramus, respectively. The patient was referred for coronary artery bypass surgery. The FFR and FFRct values in the ramus demonstrate the phenomenon of pressure recovery. This case shows that preserved FFR and FFRct cannot always be used to exclude the hemodynamic significance of upstream coronary lesions.</p