Financial Development and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence

We argue that financial market development contributed to the rise in the skill premium and residual wage inequality in the US since the 1980s. We present an endogenous growth model with imperfect credit markets and establish how improving the efficiency of these markets affects modes of production, innovation and wage dispersion between skilled and unskilled workers. The experience of US states following banking deregulation provides empirical support for our hypothesis. We find that wages of college educated workers increased by between 0.5 - 1.2% following deregulation while those of workers with a high school diploma fell by about 2.2%. Similarly, residual (or within-group) inequality increased. The 90-50 percentile ratio of residuals from a Mincerian wage regression and their standard deviation increased by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively.Skill Premium, Residual Wage Inequality, Financial Deregulation

Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals

There is much evidence that less democratic countries experience more high-frequency growth volatility. In this paper we report a similar finding about volatility in the medium term: we find evidence that reversals of trend-growth are sharper and more frequent in non-democracies. Motivated by this evidence, we construct a model in which non-democracies have high barriers of entry for new firms. This leads to less sectoral diversification and so, in an uncertain environment, to larger growth swings in less democratic countries. We present empirical evidence that confirms the positive relation between democracy and industrial diversification.medium term growth, growth volatility, democracy, diversification

Acceleration, Stagnation and Crisis: the Role of Policies and Institutions

In this paper we study long run economic growth as a sequence of accelerations, slowdowns and crises, and estimate the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies in determining this sequence. We analyze the joint effect of policies and institutions on the frequency of the four growth regimes: stable growth, stagnation, crisis and miracle-like fast growth. The results confirm the importance of institutions for growth but also show that macro-policies; inflation, trade openness, size of government and real exchange rate overvaluation matter for the growth process, even after controlling for institutional quality. Importantly, some policies affect regimes differentially; for example, trade makes episodes of fast growth more likely but also increases the frequency of crises. Finally, the effects of policies are nonlinear and dependent on the quality of institutions. For example, government spending reduces growth in countries with good institutions but can increase it when institutions are weak.economic growth, growth accelerations, macroeconomic policies, institutions

Aggregate Elasticity of Substitution between Skills: Estimates from a Macroeconomic Approach

We estimate the elasticity of substitution between high-skill and low-skill workers using panel data from 32 countries during 1970-2015. Most existing estimates, which are based only on U.S. micro data, find a value close to 1.6. We bring international data together with a theory-informed macro approach to provide new evidence on this important macroeconomic parameter. Using the macro approach we find that the elasticity of substitution between tertiary-educated workers and those with lower education levels falls between 1.8 and 2.6, which is higher than previous estimates but within a plausible range. In some specifications, estimated elasticity is above the value required for strong skill-bias of technology, suggesting strong skill-bias is not implausible

Acceleration, Stagnation and Crisis: the Role of Policies and Institutions

In this paper we study long run economic growth as a sequence of accelerations, slowdowns and crises, and estimate the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies in determining this sequence. We analyze the joint effect of policies and institutions on the frequency of the four growth regimes: stable growth, stagnation, crisis and miracle-like fast growth. The results confirm the importance of institutions for growth but also show that macro-policies; inflation, trade openness, size of government and real exchange rate overvaluation matter for the growth process, even after controlling for institutional quality. Importantly, some policies affect regimes differentially; for example, trade makes episodes of fast growth more likely but also increases the frequency of crises. Finally, the effects of policies are nonlinear and dependent on the quality of institutions. For example, government spending reduces growth in countries with good institutions but can increase it when institutions are weak

Acceleration, Stagnation and Crisis: the Role of Policies and Institutions

In this paper we study long run economic growth as a sequence of accelerations, slowdowns and crises, and estimate the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies in determining this sequence. We analyze the joint effect of policies and institutions on the frequency of the four growth regimes: stable growth, stagnation, crisis and miracle-like fast growth. The results confirm the importance of institutions for growth but also show that macro-policies; inflation, trade openness, size of government and real exchange rate overvaluation matter for the growth process, even after controlling for institutional quality. Importantly, some policies affect regimes differentially; for example, trade makes episodes of fast growth more likely but also increases the frequency of crises. Finally, the effects of policies are nonlinear and dependent on the quality of institutions. For example, government spending reduces growth in countries with good institutions but can increase it when institutions are weak

Financial Development and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence

We argue that financial market development contributed to the rise in the skill premium and residual wage inequality in the US since the 1980s. We present an endogenous growth model with imperfect credit markets and establish how improving the efficiency of these markets affects modes of production, innovation and wage dispersion between skilled and unskilled workers. The experience of US states following banking deregulation provides empirical support for our hypothesis. We find that wages of college educated workers increased by between 0.5 - 1.2% following deregulation while those of workers with a high school diploma fell by about 2.2%. Similarly, residual (or within-group) inequality increased. The 90-50 percentile ratio of residuals from a Mincerian wage regression and their standard deviation increased by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively

Financial Development and Wage Inequality: Theory and Evidence

We argue that financial market development contributed to the rise in the skill premium and residual wage inequality in the US since the 1980s. We present an endogenous growth model with imperfect credit markets and establish how improving the efficiency of these markets affects modes of production, innovation and wage dispersion between skilled and unskilled workers. The experience of US states following banking deregulation provides empirical support for our hypothesis. We find that wages of college educated workers increased by between 0.5 - 1.2% following deregulation while those of workers with a high school diploma fell by about 2.2%. Similarly, residual (or within-group) inequality increased. The 90-50 percentile ratio of residuals from a Mincerian wage regression and their standard deviation increased by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively

Directed Technological Change & Cross Country Income Differences: A Quantitative Analysis

Research aimed at understanding cross-country income differences finds that inputs of human and physical capital play a limited role in explaining those differences. However, most of this work assumes workers with different education levels are perfect substitutes. Does moving away from this assumption affect our conclusions about the causes of long run development? To answer this question we construct measures of skill-specific productivity and barriers to innovation for a large sample of countries over the period 1910-2010. We use a model of endogenous directed technological change together with a new data set on output and labor force composition across countries. We find that rich countries use labor of all skill categories more efficiently, however, in the absence or barriers to entry, poor countries would actually be more efficient at using low-skill labor. Our estimates imply that after 1950 the world technology frontier expanded much faster for college-educated workers than for those with lower skill sets. This technology diffused to many countries, allowing even poorer countries to experience relatively robust growth of high-skill-specific productivity. Their GDP growth failed to reflect that because of their labor composition; they have very few workers in the higher skilled category. Finally, we investigate the relative importance of factor endowments versus barriers to technology in explaining the current disparities of standards of living and find it to depend crucially on the value of the elasticity of substitution between skill-types. Under a lower value of 1.6, our model yields barrier estimates that are lower and relatively less important in explaining cross-country income differences: in this scenario physical and human capital account almost 70% of variance in 2010 GDP per worker in our sample. Using elasticity of 2.6, we find barriers that are higher and explain most of the variation in output. We provide some evidence that the higher value of elasticity is preferred