The Third Industrial Revolution

The author examines periods of rapid technological change for coincidences of widening inequality and slowing productivity growth. He contends that while the introduction of technologies offers profits to investors and premiums for skilled workers, in the long run the rising tide of technological change lifts everybody's boat.Technology ; Productivity ; Income distribution

Marriage and Divorce since World War II: Analyzing the Role of Technological Progress on the Formation of Households

Publicado por New York: Sociedad para la Economía dinamíca. 2004. UC3M Working paper. 65Since World War II there has been: (i) a rise in the fraction of time that married households allocate to market work, (ii) an increase in the rate of divorce, and (iii) a decline in the rate of marriage. What can explain this? It is argued here that technological progress in the household sector has saved on the need for labor at home. This makes it more feasible for singles to maintain their own home, and for married women to work. To address this question, a search model of marriage and divorce is developed. Household production benefits from labor-saving technological progress

Marriage and Divorce since World War II: Analyzing the Role of Technological Progress on the Formation of Households

Since World War II there has been: (i) a rise in the fraction of time that married households allocate to market work, (ii) an increase in the rate of divorce, and (iii) a decline in the rate of marriage. It is argued here that labor-saving technological progress in the household sector can explain these facts. This makes it more feasible for singles to maintain their own home, and for married women to work. To address this question, a search model of marriage and divorce, which incorporates household production, is developed. An extension looks back at the prewar era

Social Change

A society is characterized by the common attitudes and behavior of its members. Such behavior reflects purposive decision making by individuals, given the environment they live in. Thus, as technology changes, so might social norms. There were big changes in social norms during the 20th century, especially in sexual mores. In 1900 only six percent of unwed females engaged in premarital sex. Now, three quarters do. It is argued here that this was the result of technological improvement in contraceptives, which lowered the cost of premarital sex. The evolution from an abstinent to a promiscuous society is studied using an equilibrium matching model

Accounting for Growth

A satisfactory account of the postwar growth experience of the United States should be able to come to terms with the following three facts: -Since the early 1970's there has been a slump in the advance of productivity. -The price of new equipment has fallen steadily over the postwar period. -Since the mid-1970's the skill premium has risen. Variants of Solow's (1960) vintage-capital model can go a long way toward explaining these facts, as this paper shows. In brief, the explanations are: -Productivity slowed down because the implementation of information technologies was both costly and slow. -Technological advance in the capital goods sector has lead to a decline in equipment prices. -The skill premium rose because the new, more efficient capital is complementary with skilled labor and/or because the use of skilled labor facilitates the adoption of new technologies.Investment-specific technological progress, vintage-capital models, learning by doing, diffusion lags.

Technological Progress and Economic Transformation

Growth theory goes a long way toward explaining phenomena in labor economics linked with U.S. economic development. Some examples are: (a) the secular decline in fertility between 1800 and 1980, (b) the decline in agricultural employment and the rise in skill since 1800, (c) the demise of child labor starting around 1900, (d) the increase in female labor-force participation from 1900 to 1980. Growth theory models are presented to address all of these facts, plus the temporary rise in fertility that occurred during the baby boom. The analysis emphasizes the role of technological progress as a catalyst for economic transformation. A separate set of lecture notes on the paper is available at: https://urresearch.rochester.edu/handle/1802/6714Child Labor, Economic Growth, Educational Attainment, Female Labor-Force Participation, Fertility, Technological Progress.

Social Change

A society is characterized by the common attitudes and behavior of its members. Such behavior reflects purposive decision making by individuals, given the environment they live in. Thus, as technology changes, so might social norms. There were big changes in social norms during the 20th century, especially in sexual mores. In 1900 only six percent of unwed females engaged in premarital sex. Now, three quarters do. It is argued here that this was the result of technological improvement in contraceptives, which lowered the cost of premarital sex. The evolution from an abstinent to a promiscuous society is studied using an equilibrium matching model.social change, sexual revolution, technological progress in contraceptives, bilateral search

The U.S. demographic transition

Between 1800 and 1940, the United States went through a dramatic demographic transition. In 1800, the average woman had seven children, and 94 percent of the population lived in rural areas. By 1940, the average woman birthed just two kids, and only 43 percent of the populace lived in the country. The question is: What accounted for this shift in the demographic landscape? The answer given here is that technological progress in agriculture and manufacturing explains these facts.

Marriage and Divorce since World War II: Analyzing the Role of Technological Progress on the Formation of Households

Since World War II there has been: (i) a rise in the fraction of time that married households allocate to market work, (ii) an increase in the rate of divorce, and (iii) a decline in the rate of marriage. It is argued here that labor-saving technological progress in the household sector can explain these facts. This makes it more feasible for singles to maintain their own home, and for married women to work. To address this question, a search model of marriage and divorce, which incorporates household production, is developed. An extension looks back at the prewar era.household size, household production, hours worked, divorce, marriage, technological progress