Mean number of predicted and observed HAADs from the October-December period, averaging over randomly selected test datasets.

<p>The left half of the table shows values for the logistic regression, while the right half of the table shows values from gradient boosting. Note that the “observed” number of HAAD/non-HAAD days has a fractional component, due to the averaging over randomly partitioned testing/training sets.</p

Proportion of admissions by age and gender over the year and for HAADs.

<p>The proportion of admissions by gender and five-year age-group (stacked bar-chart) and the mean age of admitted individuals per gender (triangles), shown for HAADs in February and November and each month of the year. The left <i>y</i>-axis applies to the stacked bar-charts, while right <i>y</i>-axis applies to the points. The <i>x</i>-axis labels show the set of days and the gender of the individuals. To the left of the vertical black-grey dashed line is the same representation of the age-gender distribution for HAADs only or all days. Vertical grey dashed lines separate data for different months.</p

Details of the HAADs.

<p>Abbreviations: WK = day of week, RA = raw admission numbers, NA = normalised admissions given as the number of admissions per 100,000 population, WS = wind speed at Melbourne airport at midday (units = km/h), WD = wind direction (i.e. from which the wind is blowing) at Melbourne airport at midday (units = degrees clockwise from North), EW = east-west component of the wind-speed at Melbourne airport at midday (units = km/h, positive means winds from the west), NS = north-south component of the wind-speed at Melbourne airport at midday (units = km/h, positive means winds from the south), PR = precipitation at Melbourne airport from 00:00h to 23:59h (units = mm), TM = temperature at Melbourne airport at midday (units = ° C), RH = relative humidity at Melbourne airport at midday (units = %), TS = thunderstorm reported at Melbourne airport from 00:00h to 23:59h (Y = yes, N = no), GR = daily grass pollen concentration at the University of Melbourne averaged from 16:00h the previous day to 16:00h the date stated (units = grains/m³), NG = daily non-grass pollen concentration, <i>x</i>_lg = “lagged” average value of variable <i>x</i> over the 3 days prior to the given day (i.e. not including the value on the given day), O₃ = daily average ozone (units = parts per billion by volume), PM_2.5 = daily average particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 <i>μ</i> m (units = <i>μ</i> g/m³), NA = not available.</p

Modelled and observed population-normalised asthma admission rates (above), and deseasonalized equivalents (below).

<p>Upper row: Time-series of observed population-normalised asthma-related hospital admissions (black) and the corresponding predicted values from the model (red). Lower row: the same time-series minus the seasonal mean. Left column: a time-series of these data is shown for a shorter period (2010-2015) to highlight the seasonality. Right column: a scatter plot of modelled versus observed values for the full data series (2000-2015), shown as a two-dimensional density plot (with outliers given as points); these panels also show some summary statistics and the least-squares linear model fit.</p

seasonal cycle in population-normalised asthma-related hospital admissions.

<p>The seasonal cycle in population-normalised asthma-related hospital admissions, normalised by the population size in each age-gender category. The individual panels show the cycle for the full population (A), children and teenagers (B), working-aged adults (C) and retiree-aged adults (D). The dashed lines show the effect plus or minus one standard error of the fitted cyclical cubic spline. Note the different scales on the <i>y</i>-axis in the four panels.</p