On Expected Value Strong Controllability

The Probabilistic Simple Temporal Network (PSTN) generalizes Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty (STNUs) by introducing probability distributions over the timing of uncontrollable timepoints. PSTNs are controllable if there is a strategy to execute the controllable timepoints while bounding the risk of violating any constraint to a small value. If this risk bound can't be satisfied, PSTNs are not considered controllable. We introduce the Expected Value Probabilistic SimpleTemporal Network (EPSTN), which extends PSTNs by including a benefit to the satisfaction of temporal constraints. We study the problem of Expected Value Strong Controllability (EvSC) of EPSTNs, which seeks a schedule maximizing the expected value of satisfied constraints. We solve the EvSC problem by extending a previously developed linear program, combined with search over constraints to violate at execution time. We describe conditions under which the solution to this linear program is the maximum expected value schedule. We then show how to search for constraints to discard, using the linear program at the core of the search. While the general problem is shown to be exponential, we conclude by providing several methods to bound the complexity of search

The Europa Lander Mission: A Space Exploration Challenge for Autonomous Operations

NASA has proposed a Europa Lander Mission, with a notional launch date in the 2024-2025 timeframe. Key features of the mission are: Take 5 samples from 10 cm under the Europa surface; Mission duration is expected to be 20 (Earth) days; Data will be telemetered data back to Earth via a dedicated Carrier Relay Orbiter (CRO) spacecraft. Some information about the Europa surface is available from Cassini, indicating the presence of mountains, ridges, and other complex features, and simulations of planet-wide lighting can be performed, but this information is available only at 6m per pixel resolution (Galileo imagery). While surface temperatures are exceedingly cold (average of 114 degrees Kelvin, or minus 160 degrees Centigrade at the equator), this need not translate to solid (and hard) ice. The possible presence of small grain features (snow-like), penitentes (inverse-icicles), plumes, and other complex terrain features, will complicate operations. The time delay for such a mission is 30-60 minutes. The CRO is in view of the Lander for roughly 8 hours, and is in view of Earth for roughly 10 hours, meaning significant autonomy will be needed. A compelling case can be made for the use of aggressive autonomous operations of the *entire* mission. In this talk we will describe the Europa mission and its objectives, as well as similar Icy Worlds missions of the future. We will then describe the autonomy challenges of such a mission, using examples of similar missions and specific autonomy technologies that have been used in the past to address these challenges. We will make the case that despite some technologies that may be suitable, Europa lander presents a unique, and unaddressed, challenge for autonomy

Racial differences between African-American and white women in insulin resistance and visceral adiposity are associated with differences in apoCIII containing apoAI and apoB lipoproteins

Background: African-Americans have higher HDL, less visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and lower triglyceride (TG) and apoCIII concentrations than whites, despite being more insulin-resistant. We studied in African-American and white women the influences of insulin resistance and VAT on the apoAI concentrations of two HDL subspecies, one that contains apoCIII that is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and one that does not have apoCIII that is associated with decreased CHD; and on the apoCIII concentrations of HDL and of the apoB lipoproteins. Methods: The participants were 32 women (14 African-Americans, 18 white) of similar age (39 ± 12 vs. 42 ± 11y). Mean BMI was 34 kg/m2 in the African-Americans compared to 30 in the whites. A standard diet (33% fat, 52% carbohydrate, 15% protein) was provided for 7 days followed by a test meal (40% fat, 40% carbohydrate, 20% protein) on Day 8. Insulin sensitivity index (SI) was calculated from the minimal model. Results: After controlling for SI, African-Americans have a higher mean apoAI level in HDL with apoCIII compared with whites (12.9 ± 2.8 and 10.9 ± 2.9 mg/dL, respectively, P = 0.05). SI was associated with higher apoAI in HDL with apoCIII, whereas VAT was not associated with this HDL subspecies. This pattern of results was reversed for apoCIII concentrations in apoB lipoproteins. After adjusting for SI, African-Americans had lower apoCIII in apoB lipoproteins. SI was associated with lower apoCIII in total apoB lipoproteins, whereas VAT was associated with higher apoCIII in all the apoB lipoproteins. Additional adjustment for VAT tended to reduce the difference in apoCIII between the groups. Conclusions: African-American women have a higher HDL with apoCIII level than whites when controlled for insulin sensitivity. African-Americans have lower insulin sensitivity. Insulin sensitivity is associated with higher levels of HDL with apoCIII. ApoCIII levels in VLDL are lower in African-American women than whites, also affected by insulin sensitivity which is associated with low apoCIII in VLDL. VAT has a strong association with apoCIII in apoB lipoproteins but not with apoAI in HDL with apoCIII. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0048486

Valuing Transgenic Cotton Technologies Using a Risk/Return Framework

Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF) is used to rank transgenic cotton technology groups and place an upper and lower bound on their value. Yield and production data from replicated plot experiments are used to build cumulative distribution functions of returns for nontransgenic, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, and stacked gene cotton cultivars. Analysis of Arkansas data indicated that the stacked gene and Roundup Ready technologies would be preferred by a large number of risk neutral and risk averse producers as long as the costs of the technology and seed are below the lower bounds calculated in this manuscript.cotton, financial risk, market value, SERF, transgenic, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q16,

Autonomous Systems Taxonomy

The purpose of this taxonomy is to provide common definitions and a functional decomposition of the technology that is required for NASA's autonomous systems. The taxonomy serves as a framework for: (1) assessing the state of NASA's autonomous systems capability (workforce, technology, etc.) and (2) assessing the state of the art in autonomy technology

A Young Solar Twin in the Rosette Cluster NGC 2244 Line of Sight

Based on prior precision photometry and cluster age analysis, the bright star GSC 00154−01819 is a possible young pre-main sequence member of the Rosette cluster, NGC 2244. As part of a comprehensive study of the large-scale structure of the Rosette and its excitation by the cluster stars, we noted this star as a potential backlight for a probe of the interstellar medium and extinction along the sight line towards a distinctive nebular feature projected on to the cluster centre. New high-resolution spectra of the star were taken with the University College London Echelle Spectrograph of the AAT. They reveal that rather than being a reddened spectral type B or A star within the Mon OB2 association, it is a nearby, largely unreddened, solar twin of spectral type G2V less than 180 Myr old. It is about 219 pc from the Sun with a barycentric radial velocity of +14.35 ± 1.99 km s−1. The spectrum of the Rosette behind it and along this line of sight shows a barycentric radial velocity of +26.0 ± 2.4 km s−1 in H α, and a full width at half-maximum velocity dispersion of 61.94 ± 1.38 km s−1

ApoC-III and visceral adipose tissue contribute to paradoxically normal triglyceride levels in insulin-resistant African-American women

Background: African-Americans are more insulin-resistant than whites but have lower triglyceride (TG) concentrations. The metabolic basis for this is unknown. Our goal was to determine in a cross-sectional study the effect of insulin resistance, visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and the apolipoproteins, B, C-III and E, on race differences in TG content of very low density lipoproteins (VLDL). Methods: The participants were 31 women (16 African-American, 15 white) of similar age (37 ± 9 vs. 38 ± 11y (mean ± SD), P = 0.72) and BMI (32.4 ± 7.2 vs. 29.3 ± 6.0 kg/m2, P = 0.21). A standard diet (33% fat, 52% carbohydrate, 15% protein) was given for 7 days followed by a test meal (40% fat, 40% carbohydrate, 20% protein) on Day 8. Insulin sensitivity index (SI) was calculated from the minimal model. VAT was measured at L2-3. The influence of race, SI, VAT and apolipoproteins on the TG content of VLDL was determined by random effects models (REM). Results: African-Americans were more insulin-resistant (SI: 3.6 ± 1.3 vs. 5.6 ± 2.6 mU/L-1.min-1, P < 0.01) with less VAT (75 ± 59 vs. 102 ± 71 cm2, P < 0.01). TG, apoB and apoC-III content of light and dense VLDL were lower in African-Americans (all P < 0.05 except for apoC-III in light VLDL, P = 0.11). ApoE content did not vary by race. In REM, VAT but not SI influenced the TG concentration of VLDL. In models with race, SI, VAT and all apolipoproteins entered, race was not significant but apoC-III and VAT remained significant determinants of TG concentration in light and dense VLDL. Conclusions: Low concentrations of apoC-III and VAT in African-Americans contribute to race differences in TG concentrations. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0048486

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research