Coupling for the Won-Dollar and Yen-Dollar Rates under the Floating Exchange Rate System in Korea : A Fractional Cointegration Approach

The coupling for the exchange rates for the Won and Yen is regarded as a unique phenomenon since extremely similar movement among different currencies' exchange rates is rarely observed despite the recent world economy integration. This paper considers the exchange rate risk, macroeconomic factors, and the foreign reserves as determinants of the Won-Yen coupling especially for the post-crisis period since the late 90s, and finally compares the three groups of factors to identity the major driving force of the coupling pattern. The empirical findings in the paper suggest that the exchange rate risk for the two currencies is more significantly related to the Won-Yen coupling behavior than the other factors

Long Memory and FIGARCH Models for Daily and High Frequency Commodity Prices

Daily futures returns on six important commodities are found to be well described as FIGARCH fractionally integrated volatility processes, with small departures from the martingale in mean property. The paper also analyzes several years of high frequency intra day commodity futures returns and finds very similar long memory in volatility features at this higher frequency level. Semi parametric Local Whittle estimation of the long memory parameter supports the conclusions. Estimating the long memory parameter across many different data sampling frequencies provides consistent estimates of the long memory parameter, suggesting that the series are self-similar. The results have important implications for future empirical work using commodity price and returns data.Commodity returns, Futures markets, Long memory, FIGARCH

Aging effects on consumption risk-sharing channels in European countries

This study tests the hypothesis that aging affects risk sharing via capital markets, federal governments, and credit markets. We apply the decomposition method to both simulated and European country data. For the simulation, we consider a simple overlapping-generations model and generate data that theoretically fit the model. Empirically, we apply the variance decomposition method using data from Europe. We find some evidence that aging has a significant effect on consumption risk-sharing via the credit market channel, whereas the results for other channels are mixed. With moderate reservations, our empirical results for Europe are consistent with the results derived from the simulated data

Influenza and Bacterial Pathogen Coinfections in the 20th Century

To help understand the potential impact of bacterial coinfection during pandemic influenza periods, we undertook a far-reaching review of the existing literature to gain insights into the interaction of influenza and bacterial pathogens. Reports published between 1950 and 2006 were identified from scientific citation databases using standardized search terms. Study outcomes related to coinfection were subjected to a pooled analysis. Coinfection with influenza and bacterial pathogens occurred more frequently in pandemic compared with seasonal influenza periods. The most common bacterial coinfections with influenza virus were due to S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, Staphylococcus spp., and Streptococcus spp. Of these, S. pneumoniae was the most common cause of bacterial coinfection with influenza and accounted for 40.8% and 16.6% of bacterial coinfections during pandemic and seasonal periods, respectively. These results suggest that bacterial pathogens will play a key role in many countries, as the H1N1(A) influenza pandemic moves forward. Given the role of bacterial coinfections during influenza epidemics and pandemics, the conduct of well-designed field evaluations of public health measures to reduce the burden of these common bacterial pathogens and influenza in at-risk populations is warranted

Influenza and Bacterial Coinfections in the 20th Century

To help understand the potential impact of bacterial coinfection during pandemic influenza periods, we undertook a far-reaching review of the existing literature to gain insights into the interaction of influenza and bacterial pathogens. Reports published between 1950 and 2006 were identified from scientific citation databases using standardized search terms. Study outcomes related to coinfection were subjected to a pooled analysis. Coinfection with influenza and bacterial pathogens occurred more frequently in pandemic compared with seasonal influenza periods. The most common bacterial coinfections with influenza virus were due to S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, Staphylococcus spp., and Streptococcus spp. Of these, S. pneumoniae was the most common cause of bacterial coinfection with influenza and accounted for 40.8% and 16.6% of bacterial coinfections during pandemic and seasonal periods, respectively. These results suggest that bacterial pathogens will play a key role in many countries, as the H1N1(A) influenza pandemic moves forward. Given the role of bacterial coinfections during influenza epidemics and pandemics, the conduct of well-designed field evaluations of public health measures to reduce the burden of these common bacterial pathogens and influenza in at-risk populations is warranted

Exchange Rate Pass-through, Nominal Wage Rigidities, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy