The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy in Small Open Economies

The paper studies the dynamic macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks of various duration (permanent and temporary) under different financing methods (lump-sum tax and government debt). To this end, we develop an intertemporal macroeconomic model for a small open economy, featuring monopolistic competition in the intermediate goods market, endogenous (intertemporal) labor supply, and finitely lived households. Endogenous labor supply is crucial in generating cyclical adjustment paths and yields faster convergence to the new steady state compared with exogenous labor supply. The quantitative output effects and transitional dynamics of fiscal policy differ substantially from those of an infinitely lived representative agent model. In addition, government debt is key in making the timing of shocks matter, thus yielding permanent output effects of temporary fiscal shocks.fiscal policy, output multipliers, Blanchard-Yaari overlapping generations, monopolistic competition, small open economy

Fiscal Policy, Monopolistic Competition, and Finite Lives

The paper studies the short-run, transitional, and long-run output effects of permanent and temporary shocks in public consumption under various financing methods. To this end, a dynamic macroeconomic model for a closed economy is developed, which features a perfectly competitive final goods sector and a monopolistically competitive intermediate goods sector. Finitely lived households consume final goods, supply labor, and save part of their income. Amongst the findings for a permanent rise in public consumption are: (i) monopolistic competition increases the absolute value of the balanced-budget output multiplier; (ii) positive long-run output multipliers are obtained only if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect; (iii) short-run out- put multipliers under lump-sum tax financing are smaller than long-run output multipliers if labor supply is elastic; and (iv) bond financing reduces the size of long-run output multipliers as compared to lump-sum tax financing and may give rise to non-monotonic adjustment paths if labor supply is sufficiently elastic and the speed of adjustment of lump-sum taxes is not too high. Temporary bond-financed fiscal shocks are shown to yield: (i) permanent effects on output; and (ii) negative long-run output multipliers.fiscal policy, output multipliers, Yaari-Blanchard model, overlapping generations, monopolistic competition, love of variety, temporary fiscal shocks

Tax Policy, the Macroeconomy, and Intergenerational Distribution

The paper studies the dynamic macroeconomic and welfare effects of tax policy in the context of an overlapping-generations model of the Yaari-Blanchard type for a closed economy. The model is extended to allow for endogenous labor supply and three tax instrumentsónamely, a capital tax, labor income tax, and consumption tax. It is shown that labor taxes increase welfare of old generations whereas capital and consumption taxes reduce their welfare. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption, particularly if intertemporal labor supply is very elastic. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, gives rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises. The non-linear model is simulated to study the quantitative effects of non-infinitesimal demographic shocks.

Has the Euro Affected the Choice of Invoicing Currency?

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996-2006 period. One of the key findings is that the eurozone countries in trade with Norway have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The econometric analysis shows a significant effect of euro introduction above and beyond the determinants of currency invoicing (i.e., inflation rate, inflation volatility, foreign exchange market size, and product composition). However, the rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility.euro, invoicing currency, exchange rate risk, inflation, inflation risk, vehicle currencies, compositional multinomial logit

How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta-Analysis

The paper analyzes the contribution of public capital to private output using several meta-analytical techniques. Both fixed and random effects models are estimated by Weighted Least Squares. Sample overlap across studies is explicitly controlled for by employing a ‘full’ Generalized Least Squares estimator. The weighted average output elasticity of public capital amounts to 0.08 after correcting for publication bias. A substantial part of the heterogeneity across studies is explained by study design parameters, such as econometric specification, estimation technique, empirical model, type of public capital, and level of aggregation of public capital data. The large elasticities of public capital found in the early literature seem to be caused by either unidentified (but present) cointegrating relationships or spurious relationships in national time series.public capital, infrastructure, public investment, meta-analysis, meta-regression analysis, publication bias

Labor tax reform and equilibrium unemployment: a search and matching approach

The paper studies simple strategies of labor tax reform in a search and matching model of the labor market featuring endogenous labor supply. Changing the composition of the tax wedge---that is, reducing a payroll tax and increasing a progressive wage tax such that the marginal tax wedge remains unaffected---increases employment, reduces the equilibrium unemployment rate, and increases public revenue as long as workers do not have all the bargaining power in wage negotiations. A strategy of replacing employment taxes by payroll taxes increases employment and reduces the equilibrium unemployment rate, while the effect on public revenue is ambiguous.

Deposit-Refund on Labor: A Solution to Equilibrium Unemployment?

The paper studies the employment effects of a deposit-refund scheme on labor in a simple search-theoretic model of the labor market. It is shown that if a firm pays a deposit when it fires a worker, to be refunded when it employs the same or another worker, the vacancy rate increases and the unemployment rate declines. The scheme introduces rigidities in the labor market, however, which may be undesirable in countries wanting to liberalize their labor markets. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Coordinated Tax-Tariff Reforms, Informality, and Welfare Distribution

The paper studies the revenue, efficiency, and distributional implications of a simple strategy of offsetting tariff reductions with increases in destination-based consumption taxes so as to leave consumer prices unchanged. We employ a dynamic micro-founded macroeconomic model of a small open developing economy, which features an informal sector that cannot be taxed, a formal agricultural sector, and an import-substitution sector. The reform strategy increases government revenue, imports, exports, and the informal sector. In contrast to Emran and Stiglitz (2005), who ignore the dynamic effects of taxes and tariffs on factor markets, we find an efficiency gain, which is unevenly distributed. Existing generations benefit more than future generations, who - depending on pre-existing tax and tariff rates and the informal sector size - even may become worse off.tariff reform, consumption tax reform, informal sector, home production, transitional dynamics, overlapping generations, second-best outcome

Has the Euro affected the choice of invoicing currency?

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on the pattern of currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice is explained by both currency-specific and country-specific determinants. We use unique quarterly panel data on the invoicing of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996-2006 period. We find that eurozone countries have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro, whereas the home currency share of non-eurozone countries fell slightly. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The substantial rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility and can only to a small extent be explained by an unobserved euro effect. JEL Classification: F33, F41, F42, E31, C25.Euro, invoicing currency, exchange rate risk, inflation volatility, vehicle currencies, compositional multinomial logit.