Experts and evidence in deliberation: scrutinising the role of witnesses and evidence in mini-publics, a case study

Experts hold a prominent position in guiding and shaping policy-making; however, the nature of expert input to decision-making is a topic of public debate. A key aspect of deliberative processes such as citizens’ juries is the provision of information to participants, usually from expert witnesses. However, there is currently little guidance on some of the challenges that organisers and advocates of citizens’ juries must consider regarding expert involvement, including the role of the witness, issues around witness identification and selection, the format of evidence provision, the evidence itself, and how these factors affect the experience of the participants and the witnesses. Here, we explore these issues through detailed case study of three citizens’ juries on onshore wind farm development in Scotland, including interviews with the witnesses involved. This is complemented by examining a cohort of mini-publics held on energy and the environment topics, and, where possible, discussion with the program organisers. We identify a series of issues and sensitivities that can compromise the effectiveness and fairness of the evidence-giving in mini-publics, for the participants, the witnesses and the organisers. We recommend approaches and areas for future work to address these challenges. This is the first time that the ways of involving witnesses in such processes have been so comprehensively examined, and is timely given the increasing interest in democratic innovations such as mini-publics and the current discourse concerning experts

An economic analysis of a pneumococcal vaccine programme in people aged over 64 years in a developed country setting.

BACKGROUND: Polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccination for older adults is being introduced in developed country settings. Evidence of protection by this vaccine against pneumococcal pneumonia, or confirmation that illness and death from bacteraemia are prevented, is currently limited. Decisions are often made based on partial information. We examined the policy implications by exploring the potential economic benefit to society and the health sector of pneumococcal vaccination in older adults. METHODS: A model to estimate the potential cost savings and cost-effectiveness of a polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine programme was based on costs collected from patients, the literature, and routine health-services data. The effect of a pneumococcal vaccine (compared with no vaccination) was examined in a hypothetical cohort aged over 64 years. The duration of protection was assumed to be 10 years, with or without a booster at 5 years. RESULTS: If it were effective against morbidity from pneumococcal pneumonia, the main burden from pneumococcal disease, the vaccine could be cost-neutral to society or the health sector at low efficacy (28 and 37.5%, respectively, without boosting and with 70% coverage). If it were effective against morbidity from bacteraemia only, the vaccine's efficacy would need to be 75 and 89%, respectively. If protection against both morbidity and mortality from pneumococcal bacteraemia was 50%, the net cost to society would be 2500 pounds per year of life saved ( 3365 pounds from the health-sector perspective). Results were sensitive to incidence, case-fatality rates, and costs of illness. CONCLUSIONS: A vaccine with moderate efficacy against bacteraemic illness and death would be cost-effective. If it also protected against pneumonia, it would be cost-effective even if its efficacy were low

What have we learned about CO2 leakage from field injection tests?

Legislation and guidelines developed for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) have set performance requirements to minimize leakage risk, and to quantify and remediate any leaks that arise. For compliance it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of the possible spread, fate and impacts of any leaked CO2, and also the ability to detect and quantify any leakage. Over the past decade, a number of field scale CO2 release experiments have been conducted around the world to address many of the uncertainties regarding the characteristics of near-surface expression of CO2 in terms of the impact and quantitation of CO2 leaks. In these experiments, either free phase or dissolved CO2 is injected and released into the shallow subsurface so as to artificially simulate a CO2 leak into the near-surface environment. The experiments differ in a number of ways, from the geological conditions, surface environments, injection rates and experimental set-up - including the injection and monitoring strategy. These experiments have provided abundant information to aid in the development of our scientific understanding of environmental impacts of CO2 while assessing state of the art monitoring techniques. We have collated a global dataset of field-scale shallow controlled release experiments that have released CO2 at depths shallower than 25 m. The dataset includes 14 different field experiment locations, of which nine intended to release CO2 to surface, and the remaining sites intended for CO2 to remain in the shallow subsurface. Several release experiments have been conducted at half of these sites, and so in total, 42 different CO2 release tests have taken place at the 14 sites we examine. These experiments and their results are scrutinised to establish: (i) the range of experimental approaches and environments explored to date (such as the environment, subsurface conditions, injection strategy and whether gaseous or dissolved CO2 were injected and in what quantities); (ii) the range of CO2 injection and surface release rates at these experiments; (iii) the collective learnings about the surface and subsurface manifestation of the CO2 release, the spread and fate of the CO2, rates of CO2 flux to surface, and methods of measuring these; (iv) how successfully current approaches can detect and quantify CO2. This allows us to highlight where uncertainties remain and identify knowledge gaps that future experiments should seek to address. We also draw on the collective experiences to identify common issues or complications, and so recommend ‘best practice’ guidelines for experiment design and reporting at future CO2 release experiments

Enlightening the European Debate : Environment, Energy and Climate

The environment, energy and climate are transboundary issues that require cooperative action to sustainably address. To meet our energy requirements, both the UK and Europe are heavily reliant on energy imports. As international concerns rise over the impacts of climate change and over increasing levels of geopolitical unrest, UK Government energy policy must balance the need for competitive energy prices, with the requirements to ensure security of supply and to achieve environmental sustainability. Much of the UK’s environmental policy and legislation derives from EU Directives. Some sectors of industry may argue that this imposes a burden on their business, whilst others may argue that it leads to stability of Government policies and that it enables long-term decision-making and investment. Environmental groups do contend that European Directives provide a much-needed safety net, to protect the environment over timescales longer than a UK electoral cycle. This safety net is particularly effective because the successful implementation of EU Directives must be evidenced, protecting the progress of these policies, particularly during periods of financial stress.As part of a larger grouping of countries, negotiations on the world stage (such as climate negotiations) can be conducted with more authority than would be possible as an individual country, since the countries represented by the EU collectively represent a larger proportion of the global population, and account for a larger proportion of consumption and emissions. Cross-European R&D projects have a wider geographical scope, cover a broader range of environments and draw upon a larger pool of skills and researchers than would be possible if projects were centred within a single country. Such projects are facilitated by a number of EU mechanisms– though it is possible that non-EU countries can gain access to EU research activities, e.g. through associate country status.The implications for energy, environment and climate, of a move to leave the European Union are not clear. It is clear, however, that environmental policy in the UK has historically been driven by European legislation, that the UK is deeply embedded within the European energy market, and that the UK (and European) economies are heavily reliant on energy imports. Whatever the UK decides, it is critical that improved energy security remains a Government priority, and that we adopt a move towards a fully integrated energy, environmental and climate policy

Can Portland cement be replaced by low-carbon alternative materials? A study on thermal properties and carbon emissions of innovative cements

One approach to decarbonising the cement and construction industry is to replace ordinary Portland cement (OPC) with lower carbon alternatives that have suitable properties. We show that seven innovative cementitious binders comprised of metakaolin, silica fume and nano-silica have improved thermal performance compared with OPC and we calculate the full CO2 emissions associated with manufacture and transport of each binder for the first time. Due to their high porosity, the thermal conductivity of the novel cements is 58–90% lower than OPC, and we show that a thin layer (20 mm), up to 80% lower than standard insulating materials, is enough to bring energy emissions in domestic construction into line with 2013 Building Regulations. Carbon emissions in domestic construction can be reduced by 20–50% and these cementitious binders are able to be recycled, unlike traditional insulation materials

A cohort study of the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in older people, performed using the United Kingdom general practice research database.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of influenza vaccination against hospitalization and death can only ethically be assessed in observational studies. A concern is that individuals who are vaccinated are healthier than individuals who are not vaccinated, potentially biasing estimates of effectiveness upward. METHODS: We conducted a historical cohort study of individuals >64 years of age, for whom there were data available in the General Practice Research Database for 1989 to 1999 in England and Wales. Rates of admissions for acute respiratory diseases and rates of death due to respiratory disease were compared over 692,819 person-years in vaccine recipients and 1,534,280 person-years in vaccine nonrecipients. RESULTS: The pooled effectiveness of vaccine against hospitalizations for acute respiratory disease was 21% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-26%). The rate reduction attributable to vaccination was 4.15 hospitalizations/100,000 person-weeks in the influenza season. Among vaccine recipients, no important reduction in the number of admissions to the hospital was seen outside influenza seasons. The pooled effectiveness of vaccine against deaths due to respiratory disease was 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%). A greater proportionate reduction was seen among people without medical disorders, but absolute rate reduction was higher in individuals with medical disorders, compared with individuals without such disorders (6.14 deaths due to respiratory disease/100,000 person-weeks vs. 3.12 deaths due to respiratory disease/100,000 person-weeks). Clear protection against death due to all causes was not seen. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination reduces the number of hospitalizations and deaths due to respiratory disease, after correction for confounding in individuals >64 years of age who had a high risk or a low risk for influenza. For elderly people, untargeted influenza vaccination is of confirmed benefit against serious outcomes

Carbon Intensity of Deep Geothermal Heat in Scotland. Scottish University Policy Briefing: May 2020

No abstract available

Carbon Intensity of Deep Geothermal Heat in Scotland. Scottish University Policy Briefing: May 2020

No abstract available

Changing the direction of environmental investment in Australia: Learnings from implementing INFFER

Investment in natural resource management (NRM) by regional organisations in Australia has been widely criticised for failing to achieve substantial environmental outcomes. The Investment Framework for Environmental Resources (INFFER) is a tool for developing and prioritising projects to address environmental issues such as water quality, biodiversity decline, environmental pest impacts and land degradation. INFFER is an asset-based, targeted, and outcome-focussed approach to environmental investment, and as such is a very different and more rigorous approach to prioritising possible environmental projects than used previously by most catchment management organisations (CMOs) in Australia. From 2008 to 2010 INFFER has been trialled with CMOs. Evaluation and benchmarking data obtained at 2-day INFFER training sessions with seven CMOs in three eastern Australia states are reported. Before commencing to use INFFER, CMO staff are generally confident about the current decision-making processes for environmental investment used within their organisation. In some cases, this initial perception challenges their acceptance of a new approach to investment decisionmaking. Key issues when implementing INFFER include concerns about changing the direction of CMO investment, concerns about compatibility with funder requirements, and various issues associated with specific aspects of the Framework. Perceived complexity of INFFER, existing institutional arrangements, and the legacy of past institutional arrangements remain serious barriers to the adoption of methods to improve environmental outcomes from NRM investment. Despite these difficulties INFFER is being used by a number of CMOs. However, it is likely that widespread adoption of INFFER, or indeed any other transparent and robust process, will only occur with greater requirement from governments for environmental decision making by regional NRM bodies that is more focused on outcomes and cost-effectiveness.NRM investment planning, NRM investment prioritisation, regional catchment management organisations, NRM policy, environmental planning, environmental prioritisation, environmental policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q50, Q58,

Life cycle assessment of the carbon intensity of deep geothermal heat systems : a case study from Scotland

Deep geothermal energy is widely recognised as a source of low carbon heat. However, to date there have been no specific assessment of the carbon intensity of low-enthalpy deep geothermal; previous studies focussed on geothermal power or higher enthalpy heat. As such, there is no established method for assessing the CO2 emissions from implementing a deep geothermal heating scheme. Here we address these gaps. We perform a life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions relating to a deep geothermal heat system to (i) calculate the carbon intensity of geothermal heat; (ii) identify key factors affecting these values; (iii) consider the carbon abated if geothermal heat substitutes conventional heating; and (iv) present information that future projects can apply to assess the carbon emissions reduction offered by geothermal heat development. Our work is informed by parameters from a feasibility study for a proposed geothermal heat system in Banchory, Scotland. The project planned a 2.5 MWth geothermal plant extracting heat from the Hill of Fare granite via two boreholes, one injection and one production. We find that the majority of the emissions are associated with site construction, and sensitive to site and materials specific factors, for example the depth of the drilled boreholes and type and quantities of steel and cement used to seal them, or soils disturbed for laying pipelines and constructing access roads. During operation the carbon intensity of the electricity grid used to power hydraulic pumps largely determines the carbon intensity of the produced heat. We calculate that the carbon intensity of the heat produced is 9.7–14.0 kg(CO2e) MWhth which is 4.9–7.3% of the emissions from heat from natural gas. These values are compatible with Scotland's plans for long term decarbonisation of heat in line with national emission reduction obligations and would likely be compatible with any country's decarbonisation goals