To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labour Markets

We construct a dynamic error correction model of the Australian labour market using a macroeconomic panel across seven states from 1972:3 to 1999:1. Long run equilibrium estimates support a real wage-productivity gap and an unemployment gap. The dynamic short-run estimates support expectations-augmented Phillips curves for wages and prices, and Keynesian demand-led employment growth. We compare three procedures - pooled, aggregate and mean group estimates. Considerable heterogeneity existed across states in the pooled procedure, and state-level variables had a significant impact in the aggregate procedure. Out-of-sample aggregate forecasting for the pooled, aggregate and mean group procedures indicate that the pooled one performs best.Panel cointegration; panel macroeconometric modelling; Australian state labour markets; aggregation

Consumption Risk-sharing within Australia and with New Zealand

quantify how output risks are smoothed within Australia, and between Australia and New Zealand. About 85 percent of shocks were smoothed within Australia through credit and capital markets, with fiscal policy a source of dis-smoothing after 1992. Risk-sharing between Australia and New Zealand was greater than within Europe, occurring mostly through credit markets. With fully integrated financial markets between Australia and New Zealand since 1960, the average welfare gain would be 2.7 percent of certainty-equivalent consumption over 50 years, although these gains favour New Zealand. Australia's gains are from the pooling of PPP risks. These potential gains were largely resolved by the deregulations and CER trade agreement of the early198 0s.Risk-sharing; horizontal fiscal equalization; common currency; welfare gains from integration

Central Bank Interventions in the Yen-Dollar Spot Market

We test the effectiveness of Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s foreign exchange interventions on conditional first and second moments of exchange rate returns and traded volumes, using a bivariate EGARCH model of the Yen/USD market from 5-13-1991 to 6-28-2002. We also estimate a friction model of BOJ's intervention reaction function based on reducing short-term market disorderliness and supplementing domestic monetary policy. We find ineffectiveness of BOJ interventions pre-1995 but effectiveness post-1995, Fed intervention amplified the effectiveness of the BOJ transactions, BOJ's interventions were based on ‘leaning against the wind' motivations, and BOJ interventions were vigorously used in support of domestic monetary policy objectives pos t-1995.Foreign exchange intervention; Bank of Japan; exchange rate volatility; trade volume

Asymmetric Monetary Policy in Australia

We find evidence for asymmetric behaviour in Australian monetary policy. During 1984-1990, the Reserve Bank of Australia acted with considerable discretion yielding poor performance of an interest rate rule. However it behaved asymmetrically to inflation and the output gap in downturns and upturns. On embracing inflation targeting from 1991, it enhanced its credibility by anchoring inflation expectations. Not only did its actions become more predictable in 1991-2002, it responded asymmetrically only to output, switching to act more acutely in downturns. While its asymmetric behaviour could result from asymmetric preferences or non-linear aggregate supply, our results support the former explanation.non-linear Phillips curve; Interest rate rules; asymmetric preferences; generalized method of moments; inflation targeting; credibility

To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labour Markets

We construct a dynamic error correction model of the Australian labour market using a macroeconomic panel across seven states from 1972:3 to 1999:1. Long run equilibrium estimates support a real wage-productivity gap and an unemployment gap. The dynamic short-run estimates support expectations-augmented Phillips curves for wages and prices, and Keynesian demand-led employment growth. We compare three procedures – pooled, aggregate and mean group estimates. Considerable heterogeneity existed across states in the pooled procedure, and state-level variables had a significant impact in the aggregate procedure. Out-of-sample aggregate forecasting for the pooled, aggregate and mean group procedures indicate that the pooled one performs best

Consumption Risk-sharing within Australia and with New Zealand

quantify how output risks are smoothed within Australia, and between Australia and New Zealand. About 85 percent of shocks were smoothed within Australia through credit and capital markets, with fiscal policy a source of dis-smoothing after 1992. Risk-sharing between Australia and New Zealand was greater than within Europe, occurring mostly through credit markets. With fully integrated financial markets between Australia and New Zealand since 1960, the average welfare gain would be 2.7 percent of certainty-equivalent consumption over 50 years, although these gains favour New Zealand. Australia’s gains are from the pooling of PPP risks. These potential gains were largely resolved by the deregulations and CER trade agreement of the early1980s

Central Bank Interventions in the Yen-Dollar Spot Market

We test the effectiveness of Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s foreign exchange interventions on conditional first and second moments of exchange rate returns and traded volumes, using a bivariate EGARCH model of the Yen/USD market from 5-13-1991 to 6-28-2002. We also estimate a friction model of BOJ’s intervention reaction function based on reducing short-term market disorderliness and supplementing domestic monetary policy. We find ineffectiveness of BOJ interventions pre-1995 but effectiveness post-1995, Fed intervention amplified the effectiveness of the BOJ transactions, BOJ’s interventions were based on ‘leaning against the wind’ motivations, and BOJ interventions were vigorously used in support of domestic monetary policy objectives post-1995

Asymmetric Monetary Policy in Australia

We find evidence for asymmetric behaviour in Australian monetary policy. During 1984-1990, the Reserve Bank of Australia acted with considerable discretion yielding poor performance of an interest rate rule. However it behaved asymmetrically to inflation and the output gap in downturns and upturns. On embracing inflation targeting from 1991, it enhanced its credibility by anchoring inflation expectations. Not only did its actions become more predictable in 1991-2002, it responded asymmetrically only to output, switching to act more acutely in downturns. While its asymmetric behaviour could result from asymmetric preferences or non-linear aggregate supply, our results support the former explanation

The Common Factor of Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates: What is it Related to?

We identify a common factor driving a panel of fifteen monthly bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. We find this factor is closely related to U.S. nominal and real macroeconomic variables, financial market variables and commodity prices. Our results suggest this common factor is broadly related to the macroeconomic fundamentals in the Taylor rule and uncovered interest parity models. However, the set of fundamentals relevant to these models changes over time

The Common Factor of Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates: What is it Related to?

We identify a common factor driving a panel of fifteen monthly bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. We find this factor is closely related to U.S. nominal and real macroeconomic variables, financial market variables and commodity prices. Our results suggest this common factor is broadly related to the macroeconomic fundamentals in the Taylor rule and uncovered interest parity models. However, the set of fundamentals relevant to these models changes over time