Evaluating Alternative Safety Net Programs in Alberta: A Firm-level Simulation Analysis

This paper examines alternative risk management strategies in terms of their effectiveness for three representative Alberta farm operations. Stochastic dynamic simulation methods are used to model financial performance for these farms, and alternative risk management programs are compared in terms of their ability to stabilize returns, support income and reduce the probability of bankruptcy. The results suggest that government programs such as the Net Income Stabilization Account (NISA) program or the Farm Income Disaster Program (FIDP) in Alberta have some benefits in terms of supporting income levels and reducing the chances of farm failure. Neither program is very effective, however, in stabilizing year to year income or cash flow for the farm operations. As a risk management program, FIDP is more effective than NISA but this improved performance comes at the price of higher government costs. Performance of NISA and FIDP, relative to alternative risk management programs and strategies such as forward contracting or crop insurance, is mixed. In some cases, NISA does not seem to provide benefits beyond those available from other strategies, while FIDP tends to perform better than the alternatives. Finally, while increased debt load weakens firm financial performance, NISA and FIDP still provide some benefits in terms of supporting income and reducing the probability of bankruptcy.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Vaginal cuff recurrence after radical cystectomy: an under - studied site of bladder cancer relapse

Vaginal cuff recurrence of tumor following radical cystectomy is a rare site of disease recurrence, however it has never been specifically studied. The aim of the study is to evaluate incidence, risk factors, and long-term oncologic outcomes of vaginal cuff recurrence in a cohort of female patients treated with radical cystectomy for invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

A Multi-Scale Examination of Stopover Habitat Use by Birds

Most of our understanding of habitat use by migrating land birds comes from studies conducted at single, small spatial scales, which may overemphasize the importance of intrinsic habitat factors, such as food availability, in shaping migrant distributions. We believe that a multi-scale approach is essential to assess the influence of factors that control en route habitat use. We determined the relative importance of eight variables, each operating at a habitat-patch, landscape, or regional spatial scale, in explaining the differential use of hardwood forests by Nearctic-Neotropical land birds during migration. We estimated bird densities through transect surveys at sites near the Mississippi coast during spring and autumn migration within landscapes with variable amounts of hardwood forest cover. At a regional scale, migrant density increased with proximity to the coast, which was of moderate importance in explaining bird densities, probably due to constraints imposed on migrants when negotiating the Gulf of Mexico. The amount of hardwood forest cover at a landscape scale was positively correlated with arthropod abundance and had the greatest importance in explaining densities of all migrants, as a group, during spring, and of insectivorous migrants during autumn. Among landscape scales ranging from 500 in to 10 km radius, the densities of migrants were, on average, most strongly and positively related to the amount of hardwood forest cover within a 5 km radius. We suggest that hardwood forest cover at this scale may be an indicator of habitat quality that migrants use as a cue when landing at the end of a migratory flight. At the patch scale, direct measures of arthropod abundance and plant community composition were also important in explaining migrant densities, whereas habitat structure was of little importance. The relative amount of fleshy-fruited trees was positively related and was the most important variable explaining frugivorous migrant density during autumn. Although constraints extrinsic to habitat had a moderate role in explaining migrant distributions, our results are consistent with the view that food availability is the ultimate factor shaping the distributions of birds during stopover

Design of an Automated Ultrasonic Scanning System for In-Situ Composite Cure Monitoring and Defect Detection

The preliminary design and development of an automated ultrasonic scanning system for in-situ composite cure monitoring and defect detection in the high temperature environment of an oven was completed. This preliminary design is a stepping stone to deployment in the high temperature and high pressure environment of an autoclave, the primary cure method of aerospace grade thermoset composites. Cure monitoring with real-time defect detection during the process could determine when defects form and how they move. In addition, real-time defect detection during cure could assist validating physics-based process models for predicting defects at all stages of the cure cycle. A physics-based process model for predicting porosity and fiber waviness originating during cure is currently under development by the NASA Advanced Composites Project (ACP). For the design, an ultrasonic contact scanner is enclosed in an insulating box that is placed inside an oven during cure. Throughout the cure cycle, the box is nitrogen-cooled to approximately room temperature to maintain a standard operating environment for the scanner. The composite part is mounted on the outside of the box in a vacuum bag on the build/tool plate. The build plate is attached to the bottom surface of the box. The scanner inspects the composite panel through the build plate, tracking the movement of defects introduced during layup and searching for new defects that may form during cure. The focus of this paper is the evaluation and selection of the build plate material and thickness. The selection was based on the required operating temperature of the scanner, the cure temperature of the composite material, thermal conductivity models of the candidate build plates, and a series of ultrasonic attenuation tests. This analysis led to the determination that a 63.5 mm thick build plate of borosilicate glass would be utilized for the system. The borosilicate glass plate was selected as the build plate material due to the low ultrasonic attenuation it demonstrated, its ability to efficiently insulate the scanner while supporting an elevated temperature on the part side of the plate, and the availability of a 63.5 mm thick plate without the need for lamination

Chandra and Hubble Study of a New Transient X-ray Source in M31

We present X-ray and optical observations of a new transient X-ray source in M31 first detected 23-May-2004 at R.A.=00:43:09.940 +/- 0.65'', Dec.=41:23:32.49 +/- 0.66''. The X-ray lightcurve shows two peaks separated by several months, reminiscent of many Galactic X-ray novae. The location and X-ray spectrum of the source suggest it is a low mass X-ray binary (LMXB). Follow-up HST ACS observations of the location both during and after the outburst provide a high-confidence detection of variability for one star within the X-ray position error ellipse. This star has $\Delta$B ~ 1 mag, and there is only a ~1% chance of finding such a variable in the error ellipse. We consider this star a good candidate for the optical counterpart of the X-ray source. The luminosity of this candidate provides a prediction for the orbital period of the system of 2.3$^{+3.7}_{-1.2}$ days.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Ap