Poverty, policy, and industrialization : lessons from the distant past

Pessimists say industrialization increased poverty; optimists say it did not. The authors argue that how much industrialization eradicates poverty depends on the form industrialization takes. It is not economic growth by itself, but the processes and policies associated with different growth regimes which make the poor poorer. The authors address two questions : 1) what happened to the proportionate share of the population living in poverty, and to the living standards of the poor, during nineteenth century industrial revolutions?; and 2) why did poverty statistics behave the way they did? Modern economic growth may erode traditional entitlements that serve as safety nets in preindustrial societies. It may be convenient to think otherwise, but typically the poor in preindustrial European and North American societies were not supported by the family and private institutions. Much of the responsibility for the poor lay with the state and other formal, statelike institutions that intervened in food markets. Where laissez-faire policies were adopted during the Industrial Revolution, as in America and England, many of the poor (especially the extremely poor) became more vulnerable to adverse conditions.Environmental Economics&Policies,Services&Transfers to Poor,Rural Poverty Reduction,Safety Nets and Transfers,Governance Indicators

Creating Value Beyond Microfinance Through Entrepreneurship Development in Kenya

This article looks at current microfinance practices in Kenya and some of the inherent challenges that hinder human development of microfinance clients beyond accessing financial services. As microfinance providers and supporters continue to promote the importance of improving access to financial services amongst micro and small business owners, they will need to augment their microfinance services with basic entrepreneurial training.Entrepreneurship; Development; Microfinance; Microenterprise; Kenya

Monstrous branes

We study D-branes in the bosonic closed string theory whose automorphism group is the Bimonster group (the wreath product of the Monster simple group with Z_2). We give a complete classification of D-branes preserving the chiral subalgebra of Monster invariants and show that they transform in a representation of the Bimonster. Our results apply more generally to self-dual conformal field theories which admit the action of a compact Lie group on both the left- and right-moving sectors.Comment: 31 pages, references adde

MCMC with Strings and Branes: The Suburban Algorithm (Extended Version)

Motivated by the physics of strings and branes, we develop a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms involving extended objects. Starting from a collection of parallel Metropolis-Hastings (MH) samplers, we place them on an auxiliary grid, and couple them together via nearest neighbor interactions. This leads to a class of "suburban samplers" (i.e., spread out Metropolis). Coupling the samplers in this way modifies the mixing rate and speed of convergence for the Markov chain, and can in many cases allow a sampler to more easily overcome free energy barriers in a target distribution. We test these general theoretical considerations by performing several numerical experiments. For suburban samplers with a fluctuating grid topology, performance is strongly correlated with the average number of neighbors. Increasing the average number of neighbors above zero initially leads to an increase in performance, though there is a critical connectivity with effective dimension d_eff ~ 1, above which "groupthink" takes over, and the performance of the sampler declines.Comment: v2: 55 pages, 13 figures, references and clarifications added. Published version. This article is an extended version of "MCMC with Strings and Branes: The Suburban Algorithm

LAND RIGHTS AND INTRA-HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT AND RESOURCE USE IN THE PERI-URBAN AREA OF BANJUL, THE GAMBIA

As part of cooperative research program examining factor markets in peri-urban areas of The Gambia (Banjul and Serekunda) to see if they are constraining agricultural growth and employment, particularly in the horticultural subsector, the household production survey reported in this study assesses inter- and intrahousehold issues of market access and constraints to land-improving investment and productivity. Implemented in 1993, survey is highly disaggregated by plot, gender, enterprise, and type of employment.Land tenure--Gambia--Banjul Region, Vendors and purchasers--Gambia--Banjul Region, Household production--Gambia, Research methods, Rural conditions--Gambia, Rural off-farm employment--Gambia, Income and wealth--Gambia, Land markets--Gambia, Tenure types, Traditional--Gambia, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use,

Convolutional Analysis Operator Learning: Dependence on Training Data

Convolutional analysis operator learning (CAOL) enables the unsupervised training of (hierarchical) convolutional sparsifying operators or autoencoders from large datasets. One can use many training images for CAOL, but a precise understanding of the impact of doing so has remained an open question. This paper presents a series of results that lend insight into the impact of dataset size on the filter update in CAOL. The first result is a general deterministic bound on errors in the estimated filters, and is followed by a bound on the expected errors as the number of training samples increases. The second result provides a high probability analogue. The bounds depend on properties of the training data, and we investigate their empirical values with real data. Taken together, these results provide evidence for the potential benefit of using more training data in CAOL.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Modelling heterogeneity in response behaviour towards a sequence of discrete choice questions: a probabilistic decision process model

There is a growing body of evidence in the non-market valuation literature suggesting that responses to a sequence of discrete choice questions tend to violate the assumptions typically made by analysts regarding independence of responses and stability of preferences. Decision processes (or heuristics) such as value learning and strategic misrepresentation have been offered as explanations for these results. While a few studies have tested these heuristics as competing hypotheses, none has investigated the possibility that each explains the response behaviour of a subgroup of the population. In this paper, we make a contribution towards addressing this research gap by presenting a probabilistic decision process model designed to estimate the proportion of respondents employing defined heuristics. We demonstrate the model on binary and multinomial choice data sources and find three distinct types of response behaviour. The results suggest that accounting for heterogeneity in response behaviour may be a better way forward than attempting to identify a single heuristic to explain the behaviour of all respondents.Choice experiment, decision process, ordering effects, strategic response, willingness to pay, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C25, L94, Q51,

Strategic response to a sequence of discrete choice questions

According to neoclassical economic theory, the only stated preference elicitation format that can feasibly be employed in field studies to which truthful response can be the dominant strategy for all respondents is a single binary choice between the status quo and one alternative. In studies where the objective is estimation of preferences for multiple attributes of a good, it is preferred (and, in some cases, necessary) based on econometric considerations, to present respondents with a sequence of choice tasks. Economic theory predicts that utility-maximising respondents may find it optimal to misrepresent their preferences in this elicitation format. In this paper, the effect on stated preferences of expanding the number of choice tasks per respondent from one to four is tested using a split sample treatment in an attribute-based survey relating to the undergrounding of overhead electricity and telecommunications wires in the Australian Capital Territory. We find evidence to suggest that presenting multiple choice tasks per respondent decreases estimates of total willingness to pay and that this effect is related to the ordering of cost levels presented over the sequence of choice tasks. Two behavioural explanations can be advanced - a weak cost minimisation strategy, which implies divergence between stated and true preferences, and a ‘good deal / bad deal’ heuristic, in which stated preferences reflect true preferences that change over the course of the sequence of choice tasks. Preferences stated in the first of a sequence of choice tasks are not significantly different from those stated in the incentive compatible single binary choice task. A key objective of future research will be to establish whether this effect becomes less prevalent as the number of attributes and alternatives per choice task are increased.Choice experiments, willingness to pay, incentive compatibility, strategic behaviour, order effects, underground electricity, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,