NDCmitiQ v1.0.0: a tool to quantify and analyse greenhouse gas mitigation targets

Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA, 2015) outline their planned contributions towards achieving the PA temperature goal to “hold […] the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C” (Article 2.1.a, PA) in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Most NDCs include targets to mitigate national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which need quantifications to assess i.a. whether the current NDCs collectively put us on track to reach the PA temperature goals or the gap in ambition to do so. We implemented the new open-source tool “NDCmitiQ” to quantify GHG mitigation targets defined in the NDCs for all countries with quantifiable targets on a disaggregated level and to create corresponding national and global emissions pathways. In light of the 5-year update cycle of NDCs and the global stocktake, the quantification of NDCs is an ongoing task for which NDCmitiQ can be used, as calculations can easily be updated upon submission of new NDCs. In this paper, we describe the methodologies behind NDCmitiQ and quantification challenges we encountered by addressing a wide range of aspects, including target types and the input data from within NDCs; external time series of national emissions, population, and GDP; uniform approach vs. country specifics; share of national emissions covered by NDCs; how to deal with the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component and the conditionality of pledges; and establishing pathways from single-year targets. For use in NDCmitiQ, we furthermore construct an emissions data set from the baseline emissions provided in the NDCs. Example use cases show how the tool can help to analyse targets on a national, regional, or global scale and to quantify uncertainties caused by a lack of clarity in the NDCs. Results confirm that the conditionality of targets and assumptions about economic growth dominate uncertainty in mitigated emissions on a global scale, which are estimated as 48.9–56.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 for 2030 (10th/90th percentiles, median: 51.8 Gt CO2 eq. AR4; excluding LULUCF and bunker fuels; submissions until 17 April 2020 and excluding the USA). We estimate that 77 % of global 2017 emissions were emitted from sectors and gases covered by these NDCs. Addressing all updated NDCs submitted by 31 December 2020 results in an estimated 45.6–54.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 (median: 49.6 Gt CO2 eq. AR4, now including the USA again) and increased coverage

Transformative mitigation actions as an out-come of the Global Stocktake

TRANSFORMATIVE MITIGATION ACTIONS AS AN OUT-COME OF THE GLOBAL STOCKTAKE Transformative mitigation actions as an out-come of the Global Stocktake / Moosmann, Lorenz (Rights reserved) ( -

Very unusual case of a primary sinonasal germ cell tumour

Sinonasal malignancies are a very rare diagnosis. We present a unique case of a 32-year-old man who presented with symptoms of worsening sinusitis and periorbital cellulitis. Investigation found a sinonasal malignancy and pathology confirmed this to be a primary germ cell tumour. The patient was managed with chemotherapy, surgery and consolidation radiotherapy and has remained well to date. This case report outlines an unusual presentation and diagnostic challenge for the primary care physician, ear, nose and throat surgeon, pathologist and oncologist with review of the surrounding literature

Translating research into practice: Evaluation of an e-learning resource for health care professionals to provide nutrition advice and support for cancer survivors

Background Nurses and other allied health professionals are in a key position to provide appropriate and consistent advice on nutritional issues to support cancer survivors. However gaps in their nutrition knowledge and education warrant the need for enhanced learning as part of their Continued Professional Development (CPD). In the UK there are currently no formally recognised nutrition education programmes. Therefore e-learning offers a solution to provide flexible learning to target this need. Aims This study aimed to develop and evaluate the efficacy of a freely available, internet-based learning resource, for nurses and allied health professionals who provide nutrition, diet and lifestyle advice for cancer survivors. It sought to explore the attitudes and conceptions of the resource and current knowledge base of those involved in the care pathway for cancer survivors. Method The design and development of the e-learning resource were informed by the best available research and policy evidence and in a format to facilitate on-line learning. A robust evaluation strategy incorporated focus groups and telephone interviews to gain in depth insights into the experiences of using the resource. Results Themes included ‘Plugging a Gap’ which shows an improved knowledge base for nutrition. Information was ‘All in One Place’ showing that the resource was valued as being within a ‘trusted’ organisation. ‘Everyone Benefits’ illustrates how learners felt that the resource provided them with an evidence base, whilst the ‘Current and Live’ theme captured how professionals felt about the information being up-to-date. Conclusions The project has shown the benefits of interprofessional working to develop an e-learning resource for Health Care Professionals to support cancer survivors in following healthier lifestyles. Positive attitudes and potential improvements in the knowledge base and changes for professional practice were demonstrated. Further research is required to gauge sustained impact in the work environment by embedding the resource as part of CPD

Vegetation‐precipitation controls on Central Andean topography

Climatic controls on fluvial landscapes are commonly characterized in terms of mean annual precipitation. However, physical erosion processes are driven by extreme events and are therefore more directly related to the intensity, duration, and frequency of individual rainfall events. Climate also influences erosional processes indirectly by controlling vegetation. In this study, we explore how interdependent climate and vegetation properties affect landscape morphology at the scale of the Andean orogen. The mean intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events are derived from the TRMM 3B42v7 product. Relationships between mean hillslope gradients and precipitation event metrics, mean annual precipitation, vegetation, and bedrock lithology in the central Andes are examined by correlation analyses and multiple linear regression. Our results indicate that mean hillslope gradient correlates most strongly with percent vegetation cover ( r  = 0.56). Where vegetation cover is less than 95%, mean hillslope gradients increase with mean annual precipitation ( r  = 0.60) and vegetation cover ( r  = 0.69). Where vegetation cover is dense (>95%), mean hillslope gradients increase with increasing elevation ( r  = 0.74), decreasing inter‐storm duration ( r  = −0.69), and decreasing precipitation intensity by ~0.5°/(mm d −1 ) ( r  = −0.56). Thus, we conclude that at the orogen scale, climate influences on topography are mediated by vegetation, which itself is dependent on mean annual precipitation ( r  = 0.77). Observations from the central Andes are consistent with landscape evolution models in which hillslope gradients are a balance between rock uplift, climatic erosional efficiency and erosional resistance of the landscape determined by bedrock lithology and vegetation. Key Points Hillslope gradients in central Andes increase with increasing vegetation cover Precipitation intensity affects topography most in densely vegetated areas Mean annual precipitation affects erosional efficiency through vegetation coverPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/108109/1/jgrf20258.pd

Quantifying the role of paleoclimate and Andean Plateau uplift on river incision

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99035/1/jgrf20055-sup-0002-2012JF002533fs02.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99035/2/jgrf20055.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99035/3/jgrf20055-sup-0001-2012JF002533fs01.pd

Facial expression coding in children and adolescents with autism: Reduced adaptability but intact norm-based coding

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) can have difficulty recognizing emotional expressions. Here we asked whether the underlying perceptual coding of expression is disrupted. Typical individuals code expression relative to a perceptual (average) norm that is continuously updated by experience. This adaptability of face coding mechanisms has been linked to performance on various face tasks. We used an adaptation aftereffect paradigm to characterize expression coding in children and adolescents with autism. We asked whether face expression coding is less adaptable in autism and whether there is any fundamental disruption of norm-based coding. If expression coding is norm-based, then the face aftereffects should increase with adaptor expression strength (distance from the average expression). We observed this pattern in both autistic and typically developing participants, suggesting that norm-based coding is fundamentally intact in autism. Critically, however, expression aftereffects were reduced in the autism group, indicating that expression-coding mechanisms are less readily tuned by experience. Reduced adaptability has also been reported for coding of face identity and gaze direction. Thus there appears to be a pervasive lack of adaptability in face-coding mechanisms in autism, which could contribute to face processing and broader social difficulties in the disorder

Special Section Introduction: Mass Observation as Method

Since Mass Observation's foundation in 1937, the organisation has played witness to the great and the small events of everyday life during the last eight decades, recording people's opinions, beliefs and experiences, and making them available for researchers to develop new interpretations of British social life. Although the data produced is often messy and unwieldy and apparently contradicts many sociological assumptions about methodological rigour, the Archive is uniquely placed to offer detailed and exceptionally rich accounts of the fibre of everyday life and to reveal the deep complexities of family, personal and intimate life. As Mike Savage notes in Identities and Social Change in Britain since 1940, 'Mass-Observation is the most studied, and arguably the most important, social research institution of the mid-twentieth century' (Savage 2010: 57). He situates this significance in it providing the focus for the emergence of a new intellectual class in late 1930s Britain of people who identified with a social scientific outlook. Until that point in time, the main point of entry into intellectual circles for newly educated classes was through literary culture, which was often implicitly elitist and hierarchical in its attitude to wider society

National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement

In June 2015, the G7 agreed to two global mitigation goals: 'a decarbonization of the global economy over the course of this century' and 'the upper end of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendation of 40%–70% reductions by 2050 compared to 2010'. These IPCC recommendations aim to preserve a likely (>66%) chance of limiting global warming to 2 °C but are not necessarily consistent with the stronger ambition of the subsequent Paris Agreement of 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels'. The G7 did not specify global or national emissions scenarios consistent with its own agreement. Here we identify global cost-optimal emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models that match the G7 agreement. These scenarios have global 2030 emissions targets of 11%–43% below 2010, global net negative CO2 emissions starting between 2056 and 2080, and some exhibit net negative greenhouse gas emissions from 2080 onwards. We allocate emissions from these global scenarios to countries according to five equity approaches representative of the five equity categories presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCCAR5): 'capability', 'equality', 'responsibility-capability-need', 'equal cumulative per capita' and 'staged approaches'. Our results show that G7 members' Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) mitigation targets are in line with a grandfathering approach but lack ambition to meet various visions of climate justice. The INDCs of China and Russia fall short of meeting the requirements of any allocation approach. Depending on how their INDCs are evaluated, the INDCs of India and Brazil can match some equity approaches evaluated in this study