The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures: An econometric analysis for four major countries

In this article we investigate the forecasting performance of alternative models of private consumption using the EEC consumer surveys. Two basic conclusions emerge from the study: (1) in absolute as well as in comparison with a standard economic model, consumption functions incorporating opinion variables perform surprisingly well given the important measurement problems (missing data, qualitative character of the responses, strong collinearity among responses), and. (2) consumers' opinions are helpful guides only in very short-term forecasting (between 0 and 3 quarters). The article extends previous investigations both on the basic characteristics of opinion variables and on their relation with actual economic variables. © 1984.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Exogenous shocks and consumer confidence in four major European countries

SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

The contribution of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting the effects of oil prices on private consumption

In this article the contribution of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting consumption expenditures is analysed. In the first part equations explaining the consumer confidence index (CCI) in four major European countries (Germany, Italy, United Kingdom and France) are estimated by a few exogenous variables (oil prices, interest rates, exchange rates and the U.S. stock market index) are estimated. In the next section these equations are used to forecast the CCI for 1986. We then present equations explaining private consumption by using the CCI. In the final section a comparison is made between forecasts of consumption expenditures for 1986 obtained by using the observed and the predicted CCI. The forecasts obtained by using the predicted CCI tend to overestimate the positive impact of the recent drop in oil prices on consumption expenditures. The conclusions support the view that consumer surveys do contain original information since their use reduces, in general, the forecasting errors. © 1989.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Analyse de la répartition de la monnaie fiduciaire en coupures : la méthode de Hentsch reconsidérée.

In a series of articles published in the 1970s and 1980s, J.-C. Hentsch develo­ped a method to evaluate the usefulness of the different currency denominations issued by the central bank of a particular country. In this article, we report the results of an application of Hentsch's method to the case of Belgium and France. We also propose an amendment on the original method that facilitates considera­bly the interpretation of its results. The proposed amendment consists in correc­ting the statistics on currency circulation by denomination - prior to applying Hentsch's method - by subtracting the proportion that is used as a store of value rather than as a means of payment. A cross-section analysis for the European Union shows that this correction for hoarding should also be useful for countries other than Belgium and France.Dans une série d'articles publiés au cours des années soixante-dix et quatre-vingt, J.-C. Hentsch propose une méthode qui devrait permettre de juger objective­ment de l'utilité de chacune des coupures constituant la monnaie d'un pays donné. Le présent article rapporte les résultats d'une application de la méthode de Hentsch pour la Belgique et la France et propose surtout une modification de la méthode ini­tiale qui facilite considérablement l'interprétation des résultats. Il s'agit notamment de corriger les données sur la circulation fiduciaire - avant d'appliquer la méthode de Hentsch - en retranchant la partie qui est utilisée comme instrument de thésau­risation et non comme moyen de paiement. Il est démontré que cette correction devrait également s'avérer utile pour d'autres pays. Nous en apportons plus précisé­ment la démonstration pour les pays de l'Union européenne.Van Hove Leo, Vuchelen Jef. Analyse de la répartition de la monnaie fiduciaire en coupures : la méthode de Hentsch reconsidérée. In: Revue économique, volume 47, n°5, 1996. pp. 1149-1178

An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts

Forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance are, potentially, informative as to the stance of future fiscal policies. This is sustained by the fiscal surveillance procedure for Eurozone members since the reformed Stability and Growth Pact of 2005. However, the quality of these forecasts has never been analyzed. We evaluate the properties of the December forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance by the OECD for 19 countries. The forecasts for the current year, nowcasts, are reasonably accurate; the quality of the one-year-ahead and the two-year-ahead forecasts deteriorates however sharply when the forecast horizon increases. Despite their poor quality, forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient and thus rational. Simple alternative forecasts for the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance do not systematically outperform the forecasts by the OECD.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

An early evaluation of the introduction of euro banknotes and coins

The final stage of the changeover to the euro consisted of the introduction of euro coins and banknotes on 1 January, 2002. The national changeover plans, that provided the scenarios, were based on the exclusive transaction function of money. However, in most European countries high-denomination banknotes were significantly hoarded and/or used in the underground economy. Since the holders of these banknotes could not convert them anonymously in the two months changeover period, some feared that many banknotes would invade the payment system, leading to a cash-crash. Nevertheless the changeover process evolved smoothly. As for the future, chances are that some users in the regular sector have permanently changed their payment habits by shifting towards electronic means of payment. In the longer run we believe, however, that the tolerant attitude of the authorities with respect to currency use in the underground sector, will sustain the demand for currency.Currency, Euro, Money supply