Transforming Food Systems Under a Changing Climate: Future technologies and food systems innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs - key messages

The global food system is the single largest driver of global environmental change, contributing 24% of greenhouse gas missions, consuming 70% of blue water, and being the primary cause behind the 60% loss of vertebrate biodiversity since the 1970s. In the next three decades we will need a 30-70% increase in food availability to meet the demand for food by an increasingly numerous, urbanised and afuent population. The food system will need to change profoundly if humanity is to be provided with healthy food that is grown sustainably in ways that are both resilient in the face of climate change and do not surpass planetary boundaries. Technological innovation will have a critical role to play in this process. What might be possible if we adopted new, gamechanging technologies in the food system

Livestock, land and the environmental limits of animal source-food consumption

The increase in global consumption of animal source food (ASF) (by more than 40kg/person/year in the last 25 years) has driven livestock production systems in many countries towards intensification. This has significant consequences for land use. Identifying how best to navigate the trade-offs of using land for livestock production depends on understanding what is happening at a local level since there are large regional differences in trends for both supply and demand. Species and production system are also important determinants of land use, but it is the issue of providing sufficient feed for pigs and poultry and for dairy intensification that causes most concern. Producing traditional feeds (grains and soybean meal) competes with arable land used to produce human food. Thus research on increasing the efficient use of feed resources and on identifying new feed resources are both critical to achieve more sustainable livestock production systems, as is policy research on managing demand

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level

Shortcuts for accelerating food system transitions

In light of ongoing global challenges of health, climate change, and food security, there is urgent need to transform our food systems. Here, we call for stakeholders to leverage collective wisdom garnered from more than two decades of sustainability transitions research into developing and implementing systemic approaches to shortcut theory to action and accelerate the transformation of global food systems

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Acknowledgments MH, DM-D, JP, JRB, AH, GDB, CMG, CLM, and KR acknowledge funding from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. PKT, BMC, AJ, and AML acknowledge funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, which is supported by the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements. PP acknowledges funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the BIOCLIMAPATHS project.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

An introduction of GTEM-Food: A baseline calibration with a focus on food

There is limited understanding of the level of impact on food systems globally, particularly the interaction between climate change and mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies. To address this limitation, and to improve future analysis of climate change and climate mitigation policies we have extended GTEM-C to become GTEM-Food. First, we used multiple data sources to update the model database with more agriculture and food sectors/commodities. Second, we updated the production and consumption structures for many food sectors and commodities. Finally, we revised and updated the baseline SSP2 GTEM-Food projections considering a new starting point and trends. Results show that most world output levels increase in 2014-2060, except coal and natural gas. Vegetable and fruit double their output level ($1434 billion) in 2060 compared to the level ($779 billion) in 2014. Dairy milk also follows the same pattern, reaching $1447 billion in 2060 compared to$797 billion in 2014. Cattle meat also increases significantly in 2014-60, reaching $1362 billion in 2060 relative to$709 billion in 2014. Coal-fired electricity substantially reclines from 8.6 million GWh in 2014 to 3.4 million GWh in 2060. Solar and geothermal power increase their output significantly in 2014-60 and become main sources of power by 2060, reaching 6.5 and 5.2 million GWh in 2060. From an Australian perspective, agricultural output increases by up to 68% in 2060 compared to the 2014 level. The ratio of food output relative to non-food keep constant in 2014-2060 at 0.043. Shares of agriculture sectors in Australia stay stable at 6.3%, while shares of agricultural emissions in Australia relative to the total Australian emissions increase from 25% in 2030 to 32% in 2060 because emissions from fossil-based electricity generation decline. In general, agricultural emissions in Australia only increase slightly reaching 108 MtCO2e in 2030 and 129 MtCO2e in 2060

An introduction of GTEM-Food: A baseline calibration with a focus on food

There is limited understanding of the level of impact on food systems globally, particularly the interaction between climate change and mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies. To address this limitation, and to improve future analysis of climate change and climate mitigation policies we have extended GTEM-C to become GTEM-Food. First, we used multiple data sources to update the model database with more agriculture and food sectors/commodities. Second, we updated the production and consumption structures for many food sectors and commodities. Finally, we revised and updated the baseline SSP2 GTEM-Food projections considering a new starting point and trends. Results show that most world output levels increase in 2014-2060, except coal and natural gas. Vegetable and fruit double their output level ($1434 billion) in 2060 compared to the level ($779 billion) in 2014. Dairy milk also follows the same pattern, reaching $1447 billion in 2060 compared to$797 billion in 2014. Cattle meat also increases significantly in 2014-60, reaching $1362 billion in 2060 relative to$709 billion in 2014. Coal-fired electricity substantially reclines from 8.6 million GWh in 2014 to 3.4 million GWh in 2060. Solar and geothermal power increase their output significantly in 2014-60 and become main sources of power by 2060, reaching 6.5 and 5.2 million GWh in 2060. From an Australian perspective, agricultural output increases by up to 68% in 2060 compared to the 2014 level. The ratio of food output relative to non-food keep constant in 2014-2060 at 0.043. Shares of agriculture sectors in Australia stay stable at 6.3%, while shares of agricultural emissions in Australia relative to the total Australian emissions increase from 25% in 2030 to 32% in 2060 because emissions from fossil-based electricity generation decline. In general, agricultural emissions in Australia only increase slightly reaching 108 MtCO2e in 2030 and 129 MtCO2e in 2060

Prioritizing Crop Management to Increase Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Australian Sugarcane Crops

Sugarcane production relies on the application of large amounts of nitrogen (N) fertilizer. However, application of N in excess of crop needs can lead to loss of N to the environment, which can negatively impact ecosystems. This is of particular concern in Australia where the majority of sugarcane is grown within catchments that drain directly into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Multiple factors that impact crop yield and N inputs of sugarcane production systems can affect N use efficiency (NUE), yet the efficacy many of these factors have not been examined in detail. We undertook an extensive simulation analysis of NUE in Australian sugarcane production systems to investigate (1) the impacts of climate on factors determining NUE, (2) the range and drivers of NUE, and (3) regional variation in sugarcane N requirements. We found that the interactions between climate, soils, and management produced a wide range of simulated NUE, ranging from ∼0.3 Mg cane (kg N)-1, where yields were low (i.e., <50 Mg ha-1) and N inputs were high, to >5 Mg cane (kg N)-1 in plant crops where yields were high and N inputs low. Of the management practices simulated (N fertilizer rate, timing, and splitting; fallow management; tillage intensity; and in-field traffic management), the only practice that significantly influenced NUE in ratoon crops was N fertilizer application rate. N rate also influenced NUE in plant crops together with the management of the preceding fallow. In addition, there is regional variation in N fertilizer requirement that could make N fertilizer recommendations more specific. While our results show that complex interrelationships exist between climate, crop growth, N fertilizer rates and N losses to the environment, they highlight the priority that should be placed on optimizing N application rate and fallow management to improve NUE in Australian sugarcane production systems. New initiatives in seasonal climate forecasting, decisions support systems and enhanced efficiency fertilizers have potential for making N fertilizer management more site specific, an action that should facilitate increased NUE

Can management practices provide greenhouse gas abatement in grain farms in New South Wales, Australia?

Greenhouse gas abatement in the agricultural cropping industry can be achieved by employing management practices that sequester soil carbon (C) or minimise nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soils. However, C sequestration stimulates N2O emissions, making the net greenhouse-gas abatement potential of management practices difficult to predict. We studied land-management practices that have potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by increasing soil C storage and/or decreasing soil N2O emissions for a diverse range of broadacre grain cropping sites in New South Wales. Carbon sequestration and N2O emissions were simulated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) for a baseline crop-management scenario and alternative scenarios representing management practices for greenhouse gas abatement, for 15 rainfed or irrigated sites. The global warming potential of the scenarios was quantified at 25 and 100 years after commencement of the alternative practices. Soil C and N2O emissions were predicted to increase with the use of practices that increased organic matter additions to the soil (e.g. adding a summer crop to the rotation). However, in only a few cases did the increase in soil C storage counter the N2O emissions sufficiently to provide net greenhouse gas abatement. For rainfed sites, inclusion of a summer crop and/or a pasture in the rotation was predicted to provide greenhouse gas abatement after 25 years, whereas after 100 years, only practices that included a summer crop provided abatement for some sites. For irrigated sites after 25 years, practices that reduced N fertiliser rate while retaining stubble were predicted to provide small abatement, and practices that included a summer crop provided abatement for some sites. After 100 years, practices likely to provide abatement included those that reduced N2O emissions, such as reducing N fertiliser rate. These findings suggest that a few management practices are likely to abate greenhouse gas emissions across New South Wales grain production sites and that these practices differ for irrigated and rainfed sites