Efficient learning in ABC algorithms

Approximate Bayesian Computation has been successfully used in population genetics to bypass the calculation of the likelihood. These methods provide accurate estimates of the posterior distribution by comparing the observed dataset to a sample of datasets simulated from the model. Although parallelization is easily achieved, computation times for ensuring a suitable approximation quality of the posterior distribution are still high. To alleviate the computational burden, we propose an adaptive, sequential algorithm that runs faster than other ABC algorithms but maintains accuracy of the approximation. This proposal relies on the sequential Monte Carlo sampler of Del Moral et al. (2012) but is calibrated to reduce the number of simulations from the model. The paper concludes with numerical experiments on a toy example and on a population genetic study of Apis mellifera, where our algorithm was shown to be faster than traditional ABC schemes

Reliable ABC model choice via random forests

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with random forests and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the predicted MAP for a second stage also relying on random forests. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC random forest approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least fifty), and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to random forests will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. The proposed methodologies are implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN.Comment: 39 pages, 15 figures, 6 table

A third-generation microsatellite-based linkage map of the honey bee, Apis mellifera, and its comparison with the sequence-based physical map

The meiotic map of the honey bee is presented, including the main features that emerged from comparisons with the sequence-based physical map. The map is based on 2,008 markers and is about 40 M long, corresponding to a recombination rate of 22 cM/Mb

Bridgehead Effect in the Worldwide Invasion of the Biocontrol Harlequin Ladybird

Recent studies of the routes of worldwide introductions of alien organisms suggest that many widespread invasions could have stemmed not from the native range, but from a particularly successful invasive population, which serves as the source of colonists for remote new territories. We call here this phenomenon the invasive bridgehead effect. Evaluating the likelihood of such a scenario is heuristically challenging. We solved this problem by using approximate Bayesian computation methods to quantitatively compare complex invasion scenarios based on the analysis of population genetics (microsatellite variation) and historical (first observation dates) data. We applied this approach to the Harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis (HA), a coccinellid native to Asia that was repeatedly introduced as a biocontrol agent without becoming established for decades. We show that the recent burst of worldwide invasions of HA followed a bridgehead scenario, in which an invasive population in eastern North America acted as the source of the colonists that invaded the European, South American and African continents, with some admixture with a biocontrol strain in Europe. This demonstration of a mechanism of invasion via a bridgehead has important implications both for invasion theory (i.e., a single evolutionary shift in the bridgehead population versus multiple changes in case of introduced populations becoming invasive independently) and for ongoing efforts to manage invasions by alien organisms (i.e., heightened vigilance against invasive bridgeheads)

Test of Colonisation Scenarios Reveals Complex Invasion History of the Red Tomato Spider Mite Tetranychus evansi

The spider mite Tetranychus evansi is an emerging pest of solanaceous crops worldwide. Like many other emerging pests, its small size, confusing taxonomy, complex history of associations with humans, and propensity to start new populations from small inocula, make the study of its invasion biology difficult. Here, we use recent developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and variation in multi-locus genetic markers to reconstruct the complex historical demography of this cryptic invasive pest. By distinguishing among multiple pathways and timing of introductions, we find evidence for the “bridgehead effect”, in which one invasion serves as source for subsequent invasions. Tetranychus evansi populations in Europe and Africa resulted from at least three independent introductions from South America and involved mites from two distinct sources in Brazil, corresponding to highly divergent mitochondrial DNA lineages. Mites from southwest Brazil (BR-SW) colonized the African continent, and from there Europe through two pathways in a “bridgehead” type pattern. One pathway resulted in a widespread invasion, not only to Europe, but also to other regions in Africa, southern Europe and eastern Asia. The second pathway involved the mixture with a second introduction from BR-SW leading to an admixed population in southern Spain. Admixture was also detected between invasive populations in Portugal. A third introduction from the Brazilian Atlantic region resulted in only a limited invasion in Europe. This study illustrates that ABC methods can provide insights into, and distinguish among, complex invasion scenarios. These processes are critical not only in understanding the biology of invasions, but also in refining management strategies for invasive species. For example, while reported observations of the mite and outbreaks in the invaded areas were largely consistent with estimates of geographical expansion from the ABC approach, historical observations failed to recognize the complex pathways involved and the corresponding effects on genetic diversity

The genome of Apis mellifera: dialog between linkage mapping and sequence assembly

Two independent genome projects for the honey bee, a microsatellite linkage map and a genome sequence assembly, have interactively produced an almost complete organization of the euchromatic genome

Bases theoriques de l'amelioration genetique de l'Abeille

SIGLEINIST T 77632 / INIST-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et TechniqueFRFranc