World Bank policy research : a historical overview

The World Bank is a leading intellectual institution on development. It is a world leader in analytical studies in areas including poverty measurement, delivery of social services, impact evaluation, measurement of development outcomes, international trade and migration. It is also a leader in development data, including the Living Standard Measurement Surveys; the enterprise surveys, and the International Price Comparison Project. World Bank research is resolutely empirical and policy oriented. By both learning from past policies and operations and thinking critically about future policies, research plays a critical role in the formulation of policy advice to developing countries. This paper reviews the intellectual and institutional forces that have shaped research at the World Bank since the latter started lending to developing countries in the early 1950s. It provides an overview of the shifts in development economics that have influenced Bank research and briefly surveys the changes in research organization, structure and approach. The first section, after a short introduction, examines the shifts in positive and normative views about development during the past half century that have influenced Bank thinking. The Bank itself has been an active participant in the rise and fall of long-lived development dogmas about the nature of development; the most appropriate policies and actions for achieving it; and the respective roles of government and markets. The second section examines how the World Bank has adapted its organization to keep abreast of emerging issues and produce relevant policy research of good quality. On the one hand, the Bank has experienced several reorganizations that have affected the research unit(s) as well as its relationship with operational units. On the other hand, the Bank’s research units themselves have been reorganized at several junctures, leading to new priorities and new means of achieving them.Banks&Banking Reform,ICT Policy and Strategies,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis

Fiscal competition in developing countries : a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature

The last two decades have witnessed a sharp increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and increased competition among developing countries to attract FDI, resulting in higher investment incentives offered by host governments and removal of restrictions on operations of foreign firms in their countries. Fiscal competition between governments can take the form of business tax rebates, productivity-enhancing public infrastructure or investment incentives such as tax holidays, accelerated depreciation allowances or loss carry-forward for income tax purposes. It can take place between governments of different countries or between local governments within the same country. This paper surveys the recent theoretical and empirical economic literature on decentralization which attempts to answer three questions. First, does theoretical literature on fiscal competition and"bidding races"contribute to a better understanding of such phenomenon in developing countries? Second, are FDI inflows in developing countries sensitive to fiscal incentives and is there empirical evidence of strategic behavior from the part of developing countries in order to attract FDI? Third, what evidence is there about fiscal competition among local governments in developing countries?Subnational Economic Development,Debt Markets,Taxation&Subsidies,Emerging Markets,Public Sector Economics

Taxing capital income in Hungary and the European Union

Countries seeking membership in the European Union (EU) cannot look to the EU for a blueprint for reforming their system for taxing capital income. Indeed, it is hard to generalize about tax systems in the EU. Most member states apply fairly low tax rates to interest payments and discriminate against profit distributions. But tax rates, exemption levels, and methods of tax integration differ greatly within and across countries, and there is almost no harmonization of methods for taxing capital income. Approaches to taxing capital gains vary greatly, and distortions arise from the treatment of various sources of capital income. In 1993, when the EU began efforts to integrate capital markets, member countries proposed various ways to harmonize capital income taxes, including a proposal to introduce a withholding tax on interest income of residents of member states, with a minimum rate of 15 percent (revised to 10 percent). Under this scheme all interest on bank deposits and government and private bonds would be taxed and there might also be a final withholding tax on residents interest income. But the proposal was not accepted and the EU Commission decided to maintain the status quo, not to pressure member countries to harmonize company taxes. But Hungary could look for models in the Nordic countries (especially Norway and Sweden), Austria, and Finland, which have undertaken far-reaching reforms of capital income taxation. In most EU countries capital gains are either not (directly) taxed or are not taxed systematically. In Finland and Norway identical tax rates are applied to all types of capital income, including capital gains. The centerpiece of the"Scandinavian model"is a dual income tax, combining a progressive tax on personal income with a flat-rate tax on all types of capital income. The"Scandinavian model"contrasts sharply with the"comprehensive income taxation"model, under which a single (progressive) tax schedule is applied to income from all sources. In Austria the treatment of different types of capital income is relatively uniform but the composite tax burden on capital income resembles the highest personal income tax rate rather than a reduced rate. Austria's rate of tax evasion was high, but a 10 percent withholdingtax applied to all interest-bearing assets has reduced discrimination against honest taxpayers.Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Sector Economics&Finance,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Banks&Banking Reform

Agriculture and development : a brief review of the literature

After 20 years of neglect by international donors, agriculture is now again in the headlines because higher food prices are increasing food insecurity and poverty. In the coming years it will be essential to increase food productivity and production in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and with smallholders. This however requires finding viable solutions to a number of complex technical, institutional and policy issues including land markets, research on seeds and inputs; agricultural extension; credit; rural infrastructure; storage; connection to markets; rural nonfarm employment and food price stabilization. This paper reviews what the economic literature has to say on these topics. It discusses in turn the role played by agriculture in the development process and the interactions between agriculture and other economic sectors; the determinants of the Green Revolution and discuss the foundations of agricultural growth; issues of income diversification by farmers; approaches to rural development; and finally issues of international trade policy and food security which are at the root of the crisis in agricultural commodity volatility in the past few years.Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Agricultural Research,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems

Let there be Light! Firms Operating under Electricity Constraints in Developing Countries

Many developing countries are unable to provide their industrial sector with reliable electric power and many enterprises have to contend with insufficient and unreliable electricity supply. Because of these constraints, enterprises often opt for self-generation even though it is widely considered a second best solution. This paper develops a theoretical model of investment behavior in remedial infrastructure when physical constraints are present. It then tests econometrically implications from this model using a large sample of enterprises from 87 countries from the World Bank enterprise survey database. After showing that these constraints have non-linear effects according to the natural degree of reliance on electricity of an industrial sector and on firm size, the paper draws differentiated policy recommendations. Credit constraints appear to be the priority in sectors very reliant on electricity to spur entry and convergence to the technological frontier while, in other sectors, firms would benefit more widely from marginal improvements in electrical supply.Infrastructure, Electricity, Industrial structure

The impact of a minimum pension on old age poverty and its budgetary cost. Evidence from Latin America

ResumenEste artículo examina el impacto sobre la pobreza y el costo fiscal de una pensión mínima universalpara la población anciana en Latinoamerica usando datos de encuesta de hogares en 18 países. La asistencia a la pobreza de la población anciana necesita de una aproximación diferente a la de otros grupos de edad y la pensión mínima puede ser una opción alternativa viable. En primer lugar se mide la tasa de pobreza en la población de ancianos. En segundo lugar se discute el diseño de un esquema de pensión mínima, con y sin eligibilidad de la asistencia, asi como el efecto desincentivo que se espera sobre el comportamiento social y económico de las familias, incluyendo la oferta laboral ahorros y solidaridad familiar. Tercero, se utilizan las encuestas de hogares para simular el costo fiscal y el impacto sobre las tasas de probreza de un esquema de pensión mínima en los 18 países. El artículo muestra que una pensión mínima universal reduciría ampliamente la pobreza en la población anciana, excepto en Argentina, Brazil, Chile y Uruguay, en donde la pensión mínima ya existe y las tasas de pobreza son bajas. Este tipo de esquemas generan varios comentarios en relación con los incentivos, los efectos de dispersión y simplicidad adminsitrativa, pero tienen altos costos fiscales. Los costos fiscales son función de la edad en la cual los beneficios son asignados, la alta longevidad, la generosidad de los beneficios, la eficacia del mecanismo de eligibilidad y la capacidad fiscal del país.Abstract:This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum oldage pensions in Latin America using recent household survey data for 18 countries. Alleviatingold age poverty requires different approach from other age groups and a minimum pension is likely to be the only alternative available. First we measure old age poverty rates for all countries. Second we discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes, means-tested or not, as well as the disincentive effects that they are expected to have on the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Third we use the household surveys to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. We show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low. Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity but have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and naturally the fiscal capacity of the country.Pobreza en la vejez, transferencia de ingreso, sistema de pensiones, ingreso familiar, política fiscal, desarrollo humano.Old age poverty, income transfer, pension systems, family income, fiscal policies, humandevelopment.

Explaining Enterprise Performance in Developing Countries with Business Climate Survey Data

This paper surveys the recent literature which examines the impact of business climate variables on productivity and growth in developing countries using enterprise surveys. Comparable enterprise surveys today cover some 70,000 firms in over 100 countries around the world. The literature that has analyzed this data provides evidence that a good business climate drives growth by encouraging investment and higher productivity. Various infrastructure, finance, security, competition and regulation variables have been shown to significantly impact firm performance. Section 1 of this paper outlines the theoretical framework that underpins the investment climate literature. Section 2 describes the available datasets and surveys the key findings of the empirical literature, first macroeconomic and then microeconomic studies. Particular attention is paid to the robustness of the reported results. Section 3 highlights important econometric issues common to this literature and suggests a research agenda and possible improvements in survey design.Investment Climate; Growth and Productivity; Economic Development

Universal minimum old age pensions : impact on poverty and fiscal cost in 18 Latin American countries

Alleviating poverty for the elderly requires a different approach from other age groups, and a minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin American countries using recent household survey data. First the authors measure old age poverty rates for these countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes -- means-tested or not -- as well as the disincentives they introduce for the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and the fiscal capacity of the country.Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Debt Markets,Regional Economic Development

Development Economics and the International Development Association

Prevailing economic ideas -- and fashions -- about development have influenced the International Development Association (IDA) since its creation in 1960. The creation of the organization itself is the result of two contemporaneous facts: an urgent need to channel development finance to least-developed countries and an increasing pressure on World Bank management to directly address the issue of poverty in developing countries. Changing views, over time, have been a rationale -- and, at times, a justification -- for emphasizing poverty and social sectors; for providing grants to particular groups of countries; and for strategic choices and sectoral priorities. IDA has been influential in development debates and been an advocate for specific views about development policy. This paper gives an overview of these views and documents how they have shaped the activities of the organization since its creation. After a brief review of development thinking and of the organization of research at the World Bank, the paper documents the shifts that have taken place in country allocations and in sector emphasis in IDA over the past 50 years and highlights the strategic themes that have guided its development agenda: toward increasing country selectivity; from projects to programs; from conditionality to country ownership of reforms; and from input-based to results-based performance.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Achieving Shared Growth,Debt Markets

The impact of a minimum pension on old age poverty and its budgetary cost. Evidence from Latin America

This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in Latin America using recent household survey data for 18 countries. Alleviating old age poverty requires different approach from other age groups and a minimum pension is likely to be the only alternative available. First we measure old age poverty rates for all countries. Second we discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes, means-tested or not, as well as the disincentive effects that they are expected to have on the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Third we use the household surveys to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. We show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low. Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity but have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and naturally the fiscal capacity of the country.old age poverty, income transfer, pension systems, family income, fiscal policies, human development