Ophthalmic signs in Ugandan adults with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis: A nested analysis of the ASTRO-CM cohort.

Cryptococcal meningitis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected persons, accounting for 15% of AIDS-related deaths. Visual disturbance is commonly reported, and a wide range of ophthalmic signs may be present on examination. There is limited published literature to date describing the range and incidence of ophthalmic signs in HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis. Nested within the Adjunctive Sertraline for the Treatment of HIV-Associated Cryptococcal Meningitis (ASTRO-CM) trial (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01802385), we conducted an observational study of 696 Ugandan adults with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis. Patients were screened for visual disturbance and external ophthalmic signs at initial presentation and at follow-up appointments over 18 weeks. Assessment comprised simple clinical history and basic examination and required no specialist equipment. More than a quarter of our cohort demonstrated ocular signs or symptoms, which were observed throughout the study period.  A broad range of ocular signs were demonstrated: these included neurological signs (10.9%), localized ocular pathology (4.5%), and evidence of concurrent systemic disease (12.9%). The range of signs observed demonstrates the complexities of case management in patients with advanced HIV and cryptococcosis and also the importance of basic ocular examination in low resource settings. There remains an urgent need for studies conducting comprehensive ocular examination in patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis; these studies should include formal assessment of visual acuity, slit lamp examination and dilated indirect ophthalmoscopy. Prospective studies should investigate whether there is a correlation between reported visual disturbance and objective signs, in order to further clarify the underlying mechanisms and to guide effective diagnosis, follow-up and management

Free HIV Antiretroviral Therapy Enhances Adherence among Individuals on Stable Treatment: Implications for Potential Shortfalls in Free Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective: To estimate the population-level causal effect of source of payment for HIV medication on treatment adherence using Marginal Structural Models. Methods: Data were obtained from an observational cohort of 76 HIV-infected individuals with at least 24 weeks of antiretroviral therapy treatment from 2002 to 2007 in Kampala, Uganda. Adherence was the primary outcome and it was measured using the 30-day visual analogue scale. Marginal structural models (MSM) were used to estimate the effect of source of payment for HIV medication on adherence, adjusting for confounding by income, duration on antiretroviral therapy (ART), timing of visit, prior adherence, prior CD4+ T cell count and prior plasma HIV RNA. Traditional association models were also examined and the results compared. Results: Free HIV treatment was associated with a 3.8% improvement in adherence in the marginal structural model, while the traditional statistical models showed a 3.1–3.3% improvement in adherence associated with free HIV treatment. Conclusion: Removing a financial barrier to treatment with ART by providing free HIV treatment appears to significantly improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy. With sufficient information on confounders, MSMs can be used to make robust inferences about causal effects in epidemiologic research

Cryptococcal Meningitis and Tuberculous Meningitis Co-infection in HIV-Infected Ugandan Adults.

We report 5 HIV-infected Ugandan adults with cryptococcal and tuberculous (TB) meningitis co-infection. All unmasked meningitis occurred within 5 weeks of starting HIV therapy. Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra facilitated prompt diagnosis; however, 60% in-hospital mortality occurred. TB meningitis coinfection prevalence was 0.8% (5/586) among cryptococcal meningitis, 2 during second cryptococcal episodes

Estimating interactions and subgroup-specific treatment effects in meta-analysis without aggregation bias: A within-trial framework

Estimation of within-trial interactions in meta-analysis is crucial for reliable assessment of how treatment effects vary across participant subgroups. However, current methods have various limitations. Patients, clinicians and policy-makers need reliable estimates of treatment effects within specific covariate subgroups, on relative and absolute scales, in order to target treatments appropriately - which estimation of an interaction effect does not in itself provide. Also, the focus has been on covariates with only two subgroups, and may exclude relevant data if only a single subgroup is reported. Therefore, in this article we further develop the "within-trial" framework by providing practical methods to (1) estimate within-trial interactions across two or more subgroups; (2) estimate subgroup-specific ("floating") treatment effects that are compatible with the within-trial interactions and make maximum use of available data; and (3) clearly present this data using novel implementation of forest plots. We described the steps involved and apply the methods to two examples taken from previously published meta-analyses, and demonstrate a straightforward implementation in Stata based upon existing code for multivariate meta-analysis. We discuss how the within-trial framework and plots can be utilised with aggregate (or "published") source data, as well as with individual participant data, to effectively demonstrate how treatment effects differ across participant subgroups

Multi-iteration approach to studying tracer spreading using drifter data

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 339-351, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0165.1.A novel multi-iteration statistical method for studying tracer spreading using drifter data is introduced. The approach allows for the best use of the available drifter data by making use of a simple iterative procedure, which results in the statistically probable map showing the likelihood that a tracer released at some source location would visit different geographical regions, along with the associated arrival travel times. The technique is tested using real drifter data in the North Atlantic. Two examples are considered corresponding to sources in the western and eastern North Atlantic Ocean, that is, Massachusetts Bay–like and Irish Sea–like sources, respectively. In both examples, the method worked well in estimating the statistics of the tracer transport pathways and travel times throughout the entire North Atlantic. The role of eddies versus mean flow is quantified using the same technique, and eddies are shown to significantly broaden the spread of a tracer. The sensitivity of the results to the size of the source domain is investigated and causes for this sensitivity are discussed.This work was supported by the Grant OCE-1356630 from the National Science Foundation (NSF). Rypina also acknowledges NSF Grant OCE-1154641 and NASA Grant NNX14AH29G.2017-07-3

Implications of analysing time-to-event outcomes as binary in meta-analysis: empirical evidence from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews and meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes are frequently published within the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). However, these outcomes are handled differently across meta-analyses. They can be analysed on the hazard ratio (HR) scale or can be dichotomized and analysed as binary outcomes using effect measures such as odds ratios (OR) or risk ratios (RR). We investigated the impact of reanalysing meta-analyses from the CDSR that used these different effect measures. METHODS: We extracted two types of meta-analysis data from the CDSR: either recorded in a binary form only ("binary"), or in binary form together with observed minus expected and variance statistics ("OEV"). We explored how results for time-to-event outcomes originally analysed as "binary" change when analysed using the complementary log-log (clog-log) link on a HR scale. For the data originally analysed as HRs ("OEV"), we compared these results to analysing them as binary on a HR scale using the clog-log link or using a logit link on an OR scale. RESULTS: The pooled HR estimates were closer to 1 than the OR estimates in the majority of meta-analyses. Important differences in between-study heterogeneity between the HR and OR analyses were also observed. These changes led to discrepant conclusions between the OR and HR scales in some meta-analyses. Situations under which the clog-log link performed better than logit link and vice versa were apparent, indicating that the correct choice of the method does matter. Differences between scales arise mainly when event probability is high and may occur via differences in between-study heterogeneity or via increased within-study standard error in the OR relative to the HR analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We identified that dichotomising time-to-event outcomes may be adequate for low event probabilities but not for high event probabilities. In meta-analyses where only binary data are available, the complementary log-log link may be a useful alternative when analysing time-to-event outcomes as binary, however the exact conditions need further exploration. These findings provide guidance on the appropriate methodology that should be used when conducting such meta-analyses

An unusual finding in a 57-year-old woman with new onset hypertension and a diastolic murmur.

CLINICAL INTRODUCTION: A 57-year-old woman presented to our clinic with breathlessness brought on while walking uphill. She had been recently diagnosed with systemic hypertension. There was no known family history of cardiac disease, or prior smoking habit. On examination, pulse was 73 bpm and blood pressure 155/73 mm Hg, which was asymmetrical in her arms. Auscultation revealed a readily audible early diastolic murmur in the aortic area and bilateral subclavian bruits. ECG showed sinus rhythm with no abnormality. Transthoracic echocardiography demonstrated mild-to-moderate aortic regurgitation, and normal left ventricular size and function. The ascending aorta was mildly dilated (41 mm), with para-aortic thickening noted. Owing to the abnormal appearance of the aortic wall, cardiac MRI, and subsequently 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) scan was performed (figure 1). QUESTION: Which complication of the underlying disease is evident in figure 1, panel C? Aortic aneurysmAortic dissectionAortic thrombusCoronary artery aneurysmCoronary sinus fistula

Early goal-directed therapy after major surgery reduces complications and duration of hospital stay. A randomised, controlled trial [ISRCTN38797445]

INTRODUCTION: Goal-directed therapy (GDT) has been shown to improve outcome when commenced before surgery. This requires pre-operative admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). In cardiac surgery, GDT has proved effective when commenced after surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of post-operative GDT on the incidence of complications and duration of hospital stay in patients undergoing general surgery. METHODS: This was a randomised controlled trial with concealed allocation. High-risk general surgical patients were allocated to post-operative GDT to attain an oxygen delivery index of 600 ml min(-1 )m(-2 )or to conventional management. Cardiac output was measured by lithium indicator dilution and pulse power analysis. Patients were followed up for 60 days. RESULTS: Sixty-two patients were randomised to GDT and 60 patients to control treatment. The GDT group received more intravenous colloid (1,907 SD ± 878 ml versus 1,204 SD ± 898 ml; p < 0.0001) and dopexamine (55 patients (89%) versus 1 patient (2%); p < 0.0001). Fewer GDT patients developed complications (27 patients (44%) versus 41 patients (68%); p = 0.003, relative risk 0.63; 95% confidence intervals 0.46 to 0.87). The number of complications per patient was also reduced (0.7 SD ± 0.9 per patient versus 1.5 SD ± 1.5 per patient; p = 0.002). The median duration of hospital stay in the GDT group was significantly reduced (11 days (IQR 7 to 15) versus 14 days (IQR 11 to 27); p = 0.001). There was no significant difference in mortality (seven patients (11.3%) versus nine patients (15%); p = 0.59). CONCLUSION: Post-operative GDT is associated with reductions in post-operative complications and duration of hospital stay. The beneficial effects of GDT may be achieved while avoiding the difficulties of pre-operative ICU admission

Changes in central venous saturation after major surgery, and association with outcome

INTRODUCTION: Despite recent interest in measurement of central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO(2)), there are no published data describing the pattern of ScvO(2 )changes after major general surgery or any relationship with outcome. METHODS: ScvO(2 )and other biochemical, physiological and demographic data were prospectively measured for 8 hours after major surgery. Complications and deaths occurring within 28 days of enrolment were included in the data analysis. Independent predictors of complications were identified with the use of logistic regression analysis. Optimum cutoffs for ScvO(2 )were identified by receiver operator characteristic analysis. RESULTS: Data from 118 patients was analysed; 123 morbidity episodes occurred in 64 these patients. There were 12 deaths (10.2%). The mean ± SD age was 66.8 ± 11.4 years. Twenty patients (17%) underwent emergency surgery and 77 patients (66%) were male. The mean ± SD P-POSSUM (Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity) score was 38.6 ± 7.7, with a predicted mortality of 16.7 ± 17.6%. After multivariate analysis, the lowest cardiac index value (odds ratio (OR) 0.58 (95% confidence intervals 0.37 to 0.9); p = 0.018), lowest ScvO(2 )value (OR 0.94 (0.89 to 0.98); p = 0.007) and P-POSSUM score (OR 1.09 (1.02 to 1.15); p = 0.008) were independently associated with post-operative complications. The optimal ScvO(2 )cutoff value for morbidity prediction was 64.4%. In the first hour after surgery, significant reductions in ScvO(2 )were observed, but there were no significant changes in CI or oxygen delivery index during the same period. CONCLUSION: Significant fluctuations in ScvO(2 )occur in the immediate post-operative period. These fluctuations are not always associated with changes in oxygen delivery, suggesting that oxygen consumption is also an important determinant of ScvO(2). Reductions in ScvO(2 )are independently associated with post-operative complications