The Horizon: A blended wing aircraft configuration design project, volume 3

The results of a study to design a High-Speed Civilian Transport (HSCT) using the blended wing-body configuration are presented. The HSCT is a Mach 2 to 5 transport aircraft designed to compete with current commercial aircraft. The subjects discussed are sizing, configuration, aerodynamics, stability and control, propulsion, performance, structures and pollution effects

The Annual Cycling of Nighttime Lights in India

India is known to have unstable power supply, and many locations show an annual cycle in VIIRS Nighttime Light (VNL). In this study, autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis is used to identify the annual cycling in VNL. Two fundamentally different classification techniques are proposed to classify the ACF profile into one of the three arch types, i.e., acyclic, single peak, and dual peak. The results from the two classification techniques are closely compared to verify their output. This analysis is carried out for the entire territory of India in 15 arc second grid cells. The power stability data acquired from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and the Electricity Supply Monitoring Initiative (ESMI) are used to verify their relationship to the annual cycling of VNL. To further aide the analysis, land use/land class are accounted for by data from the India National Remote Sensing Center (NRSC). As a result, the contribution of power stability to VNL annual cycling in India is inconclusive due to the limitation of power stability data. Furthermore, other potential factors should be further examined

Annual Time Series of Global VIIRS Nighttime Lights Derived from Monthly Averages: 2012 to 2019

A consistently processed annual global nighttime lights time series (2012–2019) was produced using monthly cloud-free radiance averages made from low light imaging day/night band (DNB) data collected by the NASA/NOAA Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The processing steps are modified from the original methods developed to produce annual nighttime lights products from nightly data. Only two years of VIIRS nighttime lights (VNL) were produced with the V.1 methods: 2015 and 2016. Here we report on methods used to produce a V.2 VNL time series from the monthly averages with filtering to remove extraneous features such as biomass burning, aurora, and background. In this case, outlier removal is achieved with a twelve-month median, which discards high and low radiance outliers, thus isolating the background to a narrow range of radiances under 1 nW/cm2/sr. Background areas with no detectable lighting are further isolated using a statistical measure of texture, 3 × 3 data range (DR). The DR threshold for zeroing out background rises as the number of cloud-free observations falls. The V.2 method extends the temporal leverage in the noise filtering by developing the DR threshold from a multiyear maximum DR and a multiyear percent cloud-free grid. Additional noise filtering is achieved by zeroing out grid cells that have low average radiances (\u3c0.6 nW/cm2/sr) and detection in only one or two years out of eight. The spatial extent and average radiance levels are compared for the V.1 and V.2 2015 VNL. For the vast majority of grid cells, the average radiances are nearly the same in the two products. However, the V.2 product has more areas of dim lighting detected. The key advantages of the V.2 time series include consistent processing and threshold levels across all years, thus optimizing the set for change detection analyses

Towards Bridging the gap between Empirical and Certified Robustness against Adversarial Examples

The current state-of-the-art defense methods against adversarial examples typically focus on improving either empirical or certified robustness. Among them, adversarially trained (AT) models produce empirical state-of-the-art defense against adversarial examples without providing any robustness guarantees for large classifiers or higher-dimensional inputs. In contrast, existing randomized smoothing based models achieve state-of-the-art certified robustness while significantly degrading the empirical robustness against adversarial examples. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called \emph{Certification through Adaptation}, that transforms an AT model into a randomized smoothing classifier during inference to provide certified robustness for $\ell_2$ norm without affecting their empirical robustness against adversarial attacks. We also propose \emph{Auto-Noise} technique that efficiently approximates the appropriate noise levels to flexibly certify the test examples using randomized smoothing technique. Our proposed \emph{Certification through Adaptation} with \emph{Auto-Noise} technique achieves an \textit{average certified radius (ACR) scores} up to $1.102$ and $1.148$ respectively for CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets using AT models without affecting their empirical robustness or benign accuracy. Therefore, our paper is a step towards bridging the gap between the empirical and certified robustness against adversarial examples by achieving both using the same classifier.Comment: An abridged version of this work has been presented at ICLR 2021 Workshop on Security and Safety in Machine Learning Systems: https://aisecure-workshop.github.io/aml-iclr2021/papers/2.pd

Indicators of Electric Power Instability from Satellite Observed Nighttime Lights

Electric power services are fundamental to prosperity and economic development. Disruptions in the electricity power service can range from minutes to days. Such events are common in many developing economies, where the power generation and delivery infrastructure is often insufficient to meet demand and operational challenges. Yet, despite the large impacts, poor data availability has meant that relatively little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of electric power reliability. Here, we explore the expressions of electric power instability recorded in temporal profiles of satellite observed surface lighting collected by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) low light imaging day/night band (DNB). The nightly temporal profiles span from 2012 through to mid-2020 and contain more than 3000 observations, each from a total of 16 test sites from Africa, Asia, and North America. We present our findings in terms of various novel indicators. The preprocessing steps included radiometric adjustments designed to reduce variance due to the view angle and lunar illumination differences. The residual variance after the radiometric adjustments suggests the presence of a previously unidentified source of variability in the DNB observations of surface lighting. We believe that the short dwell time of the DNB pixel collections results in the vast under-sampling of the alternating current lighting flicker cycles. We tested 12 separate indices and looked for evidence of power instability. The key characteristic of lights in cities with developing electric power services is that they are quite dim, typically 5 to 10 times dimmer for the same population level as in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. In fact, the radiances for developing cities are just slightly above the detection limit, in the range of 1 to 10 nanowatts. The clearest indicator for power loss is the percent outage. Indicators for supply adequacy include the radiance per person and the percent of population with detectable lights. The best indicator for load-shedding is annual cycling, which was found in more than half of the grid cells in two Northern India cities. Cities with frequent upward or downward radiance spikes can have anomalously high levels of variance, skew, and kurtosis. A final observation is that, barring war or catastrophic events, the year-on-year changes in lighting are quite small. Most cities are either largely stable over time, or are gradually increasing in indices such as the mean, variance, and lift, indicating a trajectory that proceeds across multiple years