Design implications of the new harmonised probabilistic damage stability regulations

In anticipation of the forthcoming new harmonised regulations for damage stability, SOLAS Chapter II-1, proposed in IMO MSC 80 and due for enforcement in 2009, a number of ship owners and consequentially yards and classification societies are venturing to exploit the new degrees of freedom afforded by the probabilistic concept of ship subdivision. In this process, designers are finding it rather difficult to move away from the prescription mindset that has been deeply ingrained in their way of conceptualising, creating and completing a ship design. Total freedom it appears is hard to cope with and a helping hand is needed to guide them in crossing the line from prescriptive to goal-setting design. This will be facilitated considerably with improved understanding of what this concept entails and of its limitations and range of applicability. This paper represents an attempt in this direction, based on the results of a research study, financed by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency in the UK, to assess the design implications of the new harmonised rules on passenger and cargo ships

Improvement of ship stability and safety in damaged condition through operational measures : challenges and opportunities

Guaranteeing a sufficient level of safety from the point of view of stability is typically considered to be a matter of design. The overall level of safety of a ship, however, can only be guaranteed when considering passive design measures in conjunction with active operational measures, in a holistic, balanced and cost-effective manner. Time could therefore be coming for systematically considering operational measures as a recognised and normed integral part of a holistic approach to ship safety from the point of view of stability. In this respect, the scope of this paper is to identify open challenges and to provide, in general, food for thought for stimulating a discussion on the topic of operational measures, with specific attention to the damaged ship condition. The aim is to provide ground for further proceeding towards the goal of implementing a virtuous integrated approach to ship stability safety which gives due credit to effective and robust operational risk control options

Ship stability & safety in damage condition through operational measures

Guaranteeing a sufficient level of safety from the point of view of stability is typically considered to be a matter of design. However, it is impossible to ensure safety only by design measures, and operational measures can then represent a complementary tool for efficiently and cost-effectively increasing the overall safety of the vessel. Time could therefore be coming for systematically considering operational measures as a recognised and normed integral part of a holistic approach to ship safety from the point of view of stability. In this respect, the scope of this paper is to identify open challenges and to provide, in general, food for thought for stimulating a discussion on the topic of operational measures, with specific attention to the damaged ship condition. The aim of the discussion should be to provide ground for further proceeding towards the goal of implementing a virtuous integrated approach to ship stability safety which gives due credit to effective and robust operational risk control options

Damage survivability of passenger ships : re-engineering the safety factor

This paper presents a brief summary of the work carried out by SSRC and Brookes Bell Safety at Sea within the EC-funded project GOALDS on the development of a new formulation for assessing the survivability of damaged ships in waves. The proposed formula is meant to be an alternative or replacement to the s-factor in use within the current SOLAS regulations for probabilistic damage stability. The authors briefly discuss concerns related to the current survivability model and present the process of development that led to the re-engineered formulation

Regulatory, design, operational and emergency response measures for improving the damage survivability of existing RoPax

This paper describes the background and provides the rationale and the framework to embrace the whole spectrum of measures (regulatory, design, operational and emergency response) for improving the damage survivability of existing RoRo Passenger vessels. The damage stability workshop elaborated here is the first step of a process initiated by INTERFERRY Europe to assess impact on/options for existing ships of increasing the required subdivision index R should IMO decide to apply new damage stability requirements retrospectively. This, in turn, would provide the motivation for instigating and establishing a framework and propose an approach for alternative compliance to account for the contribution made to damage survivability by operational and active damage control measures that could be undertaken in case of a flooding accident. This represents a step change both in the mind-set of naval architects and in safety legislation but the impact will be immense and mostly positive

An integrated approach to damage ship survivability assessment

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SOLAS 2009 - raising the alarm

In anticipation of the new harmonised probabilistic rules for damage stability being adopted in January 2009, a number of ship owners are opting to follow these rules in advance, somewhat hesitantly and reluctantly considering the general lack of experience and understanding but also the confusion that prevails. In this climate, the authors have found a fertile ground for introducing a methodology to deal optimally with this problem, deriving from the arsenal of tools and knowledge available at SSRC and SaS. As a result, the authors are involved in some way or other with most ships currently being designed in accordance with the new probabilistic rules for damage stability. This involvement has revealed a somewhat more serious problem with probabilistic damage stability calculations, which is hidden in the detail of the rules, but one that matters most. The authors are highlights this problem and recommends a way forward

Conceptualising risk

Ever present jargon and colloquial notion of risk, coupled with obscuring of the simplicity inherent in the concepts of risk by the sophistication of computer software applications of techniques such as event trees, fault trees, Bayesian networks, or others, seem to be major factors inhibiting comprehension and systematic proliferation of the process of safety provision on the bases of risk in routine ship design practice. This paper attempts to stimulate consideration of risk at the fundamental level of mathematical axioms, by proposing a prototype of a comprehensive yet plain model of risk posed by the activity of ship operation. A process of conceptualising of substantive elements of the proposed risk model pertinent to the hazards of collision and flooding is presented. Results of tentative sensitivity studies are presented and discussed

New insights on the sinking of MV Estonia

The paper presents the latest results from the ongoing research study on the sinking of Estonia, aimed at establishing a verifiable loss scenario by using stateof- the-art numerical and experimental tools to address all pertinent issues: flooding mechanism, coupled flooding-ship-sea dynamics, deterioration of watertight integrity and the abandonment process. The strategy in approaching this problem and the new insights derived from the adopted process are presented leading to early conclusions on the likely loss scenario