The Navy's Analog Scheme for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean

The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacific Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) forecast program is introduced. EPANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year Northeastern Pacific Ocean history. The selected analog tracks, statistically adjusted for position, vector motion, and date differences between them and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecasted, and composited into a single forecast track. Verification of EPANALOG forecasts to 96 hours are shown for randomly selected historical tropical cyclones as initiated from best-track positions statistically adjusted to simulate position inaccuracies, as well as for forecasts general from 1973 operational tropical cyclone positions. The latter are intercompared with a homogeneous set of objective persistence an MOHATT forecasts as well as subjective official forecasts for the 24-, 48- and 72-hour intervals. The accuracy of the 1973 EPANALOG is shown to generally exceed that of the existent techniques for all forecast intervals tested.Naval Air Systems Command, Navy Departmenthttp://archive.org/details/navysanalogschem62jar

The 1972 Typhoon Analog Program (Tyfoon-72)

At the time of writing, author Jerry D. Jarrell was a former Operations Officer at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, and was then attending the Naval Postgraduate School. Author Richard A. Wagoner was a former Duty Officer at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, and was at the time of writing, attending Texas A and M University.TYFOON, an analog program for the prediction of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific Ocean, has been in operational use at FWC/JTWC Guam since August 1970. A brief review of TYFOON is presented focussing on its concept, operational results and limitations.Modifications to remedy shortcomings and limitations in the original version are discussed. The modified program TYFOON-72 resulted in the reduction of both computer run time and data storage requirements. Testing and development of the modified program using a sample of 131 forecast situations are reported. TYFOON-72 compared favorably with the official JTWC and TYFOON forecasts at 24 and 48 hr and was superior to both at 72 hr.Author Jerry D. Jarrell was a former Operations Officer at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam. Author Richard A. Wagoner was a former Duty Officer at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam

Cyclone/Hurricane Acceptable Risk Model (charm)

A report on a dynamic computer-based hurricane data processor that offers a new level of protection for hurricane threatened areas. General Reference Materials/Information Systems. (1257) Risk and Vulnerability Studies. (52) General Reference Materials/General Hazard Data. (1260) Disaster Prediction (Administration and Planning). (45) Disaster Preparedness/Disaster Warning. (60.4) Disaster Preparedness/Evacuation and Shelters. (60.5)The digital Cuny Archive was made available in part through funding assistance from USAID

Le rivolte degli schiavi in Brasile nelle scienze sociali e nella letteratura brasiliane (1919-1940), \u201cRazzismo & modernit\ue0\u201d

Nel saggio si sostiene che \ue8 il successo dei tentativi di rimettere in discussione la gerarchia sociale nelle Americhe da parte degli schiavi coloniali e americani a produrre, come reazione, un discorso \u201cscientificamente\u201d razzista. Per quel che riguarda la trattazione delle modalit\ue0 di autoemancipazione degli schiavi, grazie a ricerche in vari archivi brasiliani, l\u2019autore di questo saggio \ue8 riuscito a individuare un filone di studi che, tra anni Venti e Trenta, inizia a studiare episodi di resistenza della popolazione schiavizzata in Brasile. Si tratta di una serie di autori, alle volte minori, che non sono ancora stati messi in relazione in uno studio comparativo, e sui quali, anzi, anche singolarmente, o non esistono studi consistenti o non esistono studi affatto. Questi autori sono: Jayme de Altavilla, Alfredo Brand\ue3o, Mario Melo, Afonso de Taunay, Ernesto Ennes, Aderbal Jurema, Astrojildo Pereira, Sud Menucci, Osvaldo Orico, Edison Carneiro, Dunshee de Abranches, Astolfo Serra, Jorge Hurley, Arthur Ramos, Castan, Duque Estada, Evaristo de Moraes, Pedro Calmon. La produzione discorsiva di questi autori risente dell'impatto causato dalle prime forme di auto-organizzazione degli afrobrasiliani dell'epoca e dai loro discorsi sulla propria identit\ue0. Per l'assunzione implicita della debolezza della popolazione nera in Brasile, non si \ue8 pensato di fare ricerche in questa direzione. Questo insieme di opere e quel movimento di auto-emancipazione, forma il contesto nel quale si produce in Brasile il passaggio da una trattazione delle relazioni razziali in termini biologici a una in termini culturalistici e prende forma sia il mito della cosiddetta democracia racial brasiliana, sia una sua incipiente critica