Bankruptcy prediction in Visegrad group countries using multiple discriminant analysis

Research background: The problem of bankruptcy prediction models has been a current issue for decades, especially in the era of strong competition in markets and a constantly growing number of crises. If a company wants to prosper and compete successfully in a market environment, it should carry out a regular financial analysis of its activities, evaluate successes and failures, and use the results to make strategic decisions about the future development of the business. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the paper is to develop a model to reveal the un-healthy development of the enterprises in V4 countries, which is done by the multiple discriminant analysis. Methods: To conduct the research, we use the Amadeus database providing necessary financial and statistical data of almost 450,000 enterprises, covering the year 2015 and 2016, operating in the countries of the Visegrad group. Realizing the multiple discriminant analysis, the most significant predictor and the best discriminants of the corporate prosperity are identified, as well as the prediction models for both individual V4 countries and complex Visegrad model. Findings & Value added: The results of the research reveal that the prediction models use the combination of same financial ratios to predict the future financial development of a company. However, the most significant predictors are current assets to current liabilities ratio, net income to total assets ratio, ratio of non-current liabilities and current liabilities to total assets, cash and cash equivalents to total assets ratio and return of equity. All developed models have more than 80 % classification ability, which indicates that models are formed in accordance with the economic and financial situation of the V4 countries. The research results are important for companies themselves, but also for their business partners, suppliers and creditors to eliminate financial and other corporate risks related to the un-healthy or unfavorable financial situation of the company

Bankruptcy or Success? The Effective Prediction of a Company’s Financial Development Using LSTM

There is no doubt that the issue of making a good prediction about a company’s possible failure is very important, as well as complicated. A number of models have been created for this very purpose, of which one, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, holds a unique position in that it generates very good results. The objective of this contribution is to create a methodology for the identification of a company failure (bankruptcy) using artificial neural networks (hereinafter referred to as “NN”) with at least one long short-term memory (LSTM) layer. A bankruptcy model was created using deep learning, for which at least one layer of LSTM was used for the construction of the NN. For the purposes of this contribution, Wolfram’s Mathematica 13 (Wolfram Research, Champaign, Illinois) software was used. The research results show that LSTM NN can be used as a tool for predicting company failure. The objective of the contribution was achieved, since the model of a NN was developed, which is able to predict the future development of a company operating in the manufacturing sector in the Czech Republic. It can be applied to small, medium-sized and manufacturing companies alike, as well as used by financial institutions, investors, or auditors as an alternative for evaluating the financial health of companies in a given field. The model is flexible and can therefore be trained according to a different dataset or environment

Determining the Increase in a Building’s Appreciation Rate Due to a Reconstruction

The reconstruction of buildings generally prolongs their useful life, increases their utility value, and last but not least, leads to an increase in their value. These assumptions only apply if an independent third party reaches the same conclusion together with the owner. However, the undesirable effect of the reconstruction of a building may be a decrease in its value. The aim of this contribution is to determine the change in value of an older sample building assessed in the included case study as a result of its reconstruction. Valuation methods are applied, which, as it turns out, reveal the inaccuracy of the subjective view of the person who reconstructed the building. The resulting change in the value of the sample building is discussed from the point of view of the applied valuation methods and other value-creating aspects (subjective view of the owner on the value of the building, historical value of the building, etc.). The contribution concludes with recommendations for maximizing the increase in value of a property through its reconstruction so as to eliminate the risk of a decrease in its value