Einschätzung möglicher Wettbewerbleistung von jungen skilaufern auf Grund der hierarchischen Regressionsanalyse und der Modellexpertise

On a sample of 44 Slovenian cross-country skiers, aged 13-14 years, an attempt of evaluation of competition performance by means of rank-order (hierarchical) regression analysis and expert modelling has been made. Both methodological procedures have the same basis, that is a reduced prognostic performance model, in which motor, morphological and functional dimensions of the psychosomatic status of competitors are arranged hierarchically. By means of rank-order (hierarchical) regression analysis, 46% of the competition performance of the subjects has been explained. By the procedure of expert modelling, the prognostic competition performance of subjects has been assessed at all levels of the reduced prognostic performance model. A high degree of agreement between the results obtained by the two procedures of evaluation of competition performance (r= 0.86) has been established. The validity of the expert modelling procedure has been determined by linear correlation between the dimensions of prognostic performance and the actual competition performance defined by FIS points (r = 0.55). In addition to the established model characteristics of young cross-country skiers in this age category, the study has, among other things, also confirmed the assumption about the high value of expert modelling in practical professional direction of the process of training athletes.An einer Stichprobe von 44 slowenischen Skiläufern im Alter von 13 bis 14 Jahre wurde die Wettbewerbleistung mit Hilfe von rangeinordnenden(hierarchischen) Regressionsanalyse und Modellexpertise eingeschätzt. Die beiden methodologischen Vorgange hatten gleichen Ausgangspunkt: das eingeschränkte Modell von Leistungseinschätzung, bei dem die motorischen, morphologischen und funktionellen Dimensionen des psychosomatischen Standes eines Wettbewerbers hierarchisch geordnet sind. Mit Hilfe von rangeinordnenden (hierarchischen) Regressionsanalyse wurde 46% von Wettbewerbleistung der Testpersonen erklärt. Uber Vorgang der Modellexpertise wurde von Autoren die vorhergesagte Wettbewerbleistung der Testpersonen auf allen Ebenen der eingeschränkten Modelleistungsvorhersage richtig eingeschätzt. Es wurde ein hohes Grad an Übereinstimmung in den Ergebnissen beider Vorginge festgestellt (r=0,86). Die Gültigkeit des Vorgangs bei der Modellexpertise wurde über lineare Korrelation zwischen der vorhergesagten und der tatsächlichen Wettbewerbleistung bestätigt, definiert durch Anzahl von FIS-Zahlen (r=0,55). Neben der Feststellung von Modelleigenschaften der jungen Skiläufer im betreffenden Alter wurde in der Arbeit auch die vorausgesetzt hohe Wertstellung der Modellexpertise in praktischer Lenkung bei dem Sporttraining bestätigt

The performance structure of individual competition in biathlon

Individual biathlon competition as an event consists of a number of segments (variables), i.e. cross-country skiing time, range time, so-called time difference, and shooting accuracy. In the research part, the study analysed the interrelations of these variables and their correlations with competitive performance at the Biathlon World Championship individual competition. Regression analysis showed that total cross-country skiing time was the most important determinant of competitive performance (55%). Total shooting performance prone and standing explains 39.5%, total range time accounts for 5% of the criterion variable, and time difference for 0.5%. The contestants hit 80.5% of all targets in this competition. Factor analysis determined seven factors that logically completed the competition outcome in a biathlon individual competition. These factors are: cross-country skiing performance; shooting time and range time; time difference; accuracy shooting 1 and total time in lap 1; accuracy shooting 2 and total time in lap 2; accuracy shooting 4 and total time in lap 4; and accuracy shooting 3 and total time in lap 3. Although we found in this competition a somewhat dominant contribution of the cross- country skiing itself to the final competitive performance, shooting accuracy is also very important in an individual biathlon competition. The results of men’s individual biathlon competitions at the last Olympics and World Championships show that it is still possible to win a medal with only one missed shot (two missed shots can only be afforded by the rare biathletes who are extremely fast skiers)

Die Bewertung der Entwicklung potentieller und Wettkampfleistung der Spitzensportler mittels des “sport-expert” Systems

The aim of this study was to follow a five-year competitive and hypothetically potentially successful performance of a top ski-jumper with the help of the expert decisive “sport-expert” system. In the primary phase of the formation of the expert system a hypothetical model of a competitive (CP) and the so-called reduced potentially (PP) successful performance was developed. The model of a potentially successful performance comprised 17 elementary and 14 derived motor variables, 4 elementary and 3 derived morphological variables and two variables containing special morphological-motor indices. The evaluation of a successful performance based on the previously defined variables was founded on the method of expert decision-making (Chankong, Haimes, 1983). This method is based on decision rules with the help of which we determine the significance of an individual successful performance variable, as well as on the normalisers with which we determine the position of an individual of a defined successful performance variable in the individual quality-defined category. The successful performance of the sportsman was then calculated with the “SPEX” computer program on all models of variables, starting from the most elementary and up to the finally derived hypothetically potential successful performance. The results showed an uninterrupted continuous quality development of a hypothetically potential successful performance (PP) of the young sportsman, who, even at the age of 13, showed a highly successful competitive performance, which in the following 5 years rose to the level where he won the first place in the total count of the ski-jumping World Cup for the 1996/97 season.Das Ziel dieser Untersuchung war, die konkrete Wettkampfleistung, sowie die hypothetische potentielle Leistung eines Spitzenschispringers mittels des Expertentscheidungssystems “Sport-Expert” zu bewerten. In der ersten Phase der Expertsystemgestaltung wurde ein hypothetisches Modell der Wettkampfleistung (CP), sowie der sogenannten reduzierten potentiellen Leistung (PP) entwickelt. Das Modell der potentiellen Leistung umfasste 17 Haupt- und 14 abgeleiteten motorischen Variablen, sowie 4 Haupt- und 3 abgeleiteten morphologischen Variablen und zwei Variablen mit speziellen morphologisch-motorischen Indexen. Die Leistungsbewertung aufgrund definierter Variablen beruht auf der Methode der Expertentscheidung (Chankong und Haimes, 1983), d.h. auf den Entscheidungsregeln, mit denen die Signifikanz einzelner Leistungsvariablen festgestellt wird, sowie auf den Normalisierungsmitteln, die den Rang einzelner definierter Leistungsvariablen innerhalb der spezifischen Qualitätskategorie determinieren. Danach wird, mittels des Computerprogrammes “SPEX”, die Leistung des Sportlers nach allen Variablen gerechnet, von den Hauptvariablen aus bis zur abgeleiteten potentiellen Leistung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine ununterbrochene konstante Entwicklung in der Qualität der hypothetischen potentiellen Leistung des jungen Sportlers, der schon im Alter von 13 Jahren eine große, in den folgenden 5 Jahren immer größere Wettkampfleistung zeigte, bis er im Saison 1996/97 die meisten Punkte und damit den ersten Platz im Schispringerweltcup gewonnen hat

Monitoring of Cross-Country Skiers by Means of an Expert Model of Potential Performance

On the basis of expert knowledge, an expert model of potential performance covering the motor, morphological, psychological, and sociological subspace was constructed (MMPS). The scores of variables were obtained by application of the computer program Sport Measurement Management System (SMMS). In the subjects included in measurements, trends of the obtained average scores of variables were established through various competition categories and age periods. The sample of subjects consisted of 48 cross-country skiers in three competition categories. Fluctuations in development in individual age periods are larger in the motor and morphological subspace. In the psychological subspace, an upward trend of average scores can be noticed, while the sociological subspace is not subjected to any essential changes in different age and competition categories. Monitoring of cross-country skiers across all three competition categories showed that in these age categories there are periods which owing to laws of development do not allow uniform progress. Therefore, the principle of individuality must be taken into account especially in planning the transformation process

ANALYSIS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN SELECTED KINEMATIC VARIABLES OF THE TAKE-OFF AND THE LENGHT OF THE SKI-JUMP

The objective of the study was to establish, by means of 2-D kinematic analysis, the correlation between selected kinematic parameters of the take-off of the jumpers and their performance from the aspect of the jump length on a sample of the best ski jumpers (first series n = 42; second series n = 30) participating in the final competition of the World Cup in Ski Flights at Planica in 1999 (K 180 m). Analysis of correlation and single-factor analysis of variance were used. A smaller number of statistically significant correlations between the defined kinematic variables and the jump length was determined. The differences in the vertical velocity of the take-off on the edge of the take-off platform confirmed a tendency towards positive correlations between this variable and the jump length (the group of the best ski jumpers attained the smallest vertical velocity in both jumps; in the first jump, the differences between the various quality groups of ski jumpers were statistically significant. The best group of ski jumpers showed tendencies towards a more pronounced transfer of the hips and the common centre of gravity in the forward direction (the take-off rotation factor) relative to the axis of the ankle (the differences between the various quality groups of ski jumpers were statistically significant in the second jump)

Utjecaj psiholoških dimenzija psihosomatskogstatusa na potencijalnu natjecateljsku uspješnost trkača na skijama

The purpose of the study was to establish the values of the variables of the psychological area in predicting the potential competitive performance of cross-country skiers. The psychological area, encompassing 24 variables, was studied within the model of potential performance MMPS. The sample consisted of 48 cross-country skiers of three competitive categories. The expert modelling procedure was used to obtain the scores of the potential performance of the subjects at all levels of the psychological area. An analysis of correlation between these scores and the actual competitive performance criterion (SLO_FIS) showed that the psychological area in all three competitive categories of subjects was differently but statistically insignificantly correlated with their competitive performance. The average scores of individual psychological dimensions increase gradually with the subjects’ chronological age, however, there are some deviations pos-sibly resulting from the not yet stabilised psychological structures. The monitoring of the average scores of the subjects’ potential competitive performance in terms of psychological variables by different age category can predict a regular development trend in the psychological make-up of cross-country skiers.Uvod Cilj ovog rada bio je proučiti i vrednovati natjecateljsku uspješnost skijaša trkača pomoću razvoja reduciranog univerzalnog modela potencijalne uspješnosti kao podsustava općeg modela potencijalne uspješnosti. Naglasak je bio na psihološkom području sportaševa psihosomatskog statusa. Koristeći tri autonomna seta specifičnih fizičkih sposobnosti, motivacijskih komponenata i osobina ličnosti željeli smo razviti psihološki model skijaša trkača unutar reduciranog univerzalnog modela potencijalne uspješnosti koji bi bio koristan u planiranju, programiranju, provedbi, praćenju i evaluaciji transformacijskih procesa. Psihološko područje proučavalo se unutar reduciranog modela potencijalne uspješnosti (MMPS). Koristeći tako konstruirani model potencijalne sportske uspješnosti željeli smo utvrditi valjanost rezultata i mogućnost praćenja skijaša trkača s obzirom na dob. Metode Uzorak ispitanika činilo je 48 aktivnih skijaša trkača iz tri natjecateljske kategorije. Ispitanici su bili; 17 starijih dječaka, 17 mlađih juniora i 17 starijih juniora. Za sudjelovanje u ovom istraživačkom projektu dobiven je pristanak sudionika (ili pristanak roditelja i osobnog trenera). Varijable. Reducirani univerzalni model potencijalne uspješnosti – MMPS (motoričke sposobnosti, morfološka obilježja, psihološke i socijalne karakteristike) sadržavao je 24 varijable iz području psiholoških obilježja. FIS bodovi (SLO_FIS), rezultati natjecatelja iz natjecateljske sezone 2001/2002 korišteni su kao zavisna (kriterijska) varijabla. Postupak. Model potencijalne natjecateljske uspješnosti skijaša trkača (MMPS) kreiran je u obliku stabla odlučivanja. Normalizatori (pozicijske konfiguracije) predstavljali su sve elementarne varijable (testove). Pravila donošenja odluke (dimenzionalna konfiguracija) formulirani su na razini svih čvorova u modelu pomoću metode zavisno determiniranih pondera. Program SMMS uporabljen je za izračun rezultata za svakog sportaša, za sve varijable i na svim razinama. Prvo je provedena analiza za elementarne varijable, tj. testove, a potom stupnjevito za sve kompozitne varijable na razinama viših čvorova, sve do najvišega, tj. do prognoziranog rezultata natjecateljske uspješnosti pojedinog skijaša trkača (SC_POTCP). Na najvišoj razini modela, pomoću Pearsonova koeficijenta korelacije, utvrđena je povezanost između rezultata prediktorskih varijabli i rezultata na kriterijskoj varijabli. Tako je potvrđena valjanost reduciranog univerzalnog modela. Rezultati i rasprava Korišten je postupak ekspertnog modeliranja kako bi se dobili rezultati potencijalne natjecateljske uspješnosti sudionika na svim razinama unutar psihološkog područja. Naravno, to nije najvažnija informativna vrijednost ovog modela. Model se pokazao značajno učinkovitijim kada je instruktor (trener) prilagodio svoj način vođenja transformacijskog procesa dobivenim informacijama, a na taj se način poboljšavala i sportaševa učinkovitost u određenom vremenskom razdoblju. Bez tih informacija, vođenje trenažnog procesa vjerojatno bi bilo neprikladno, osobito kada se s većom grupom sportaša radi sa svima na isti način I primjenjuju iste metode za sve. Analiza povezanosti između rezultata potencijalne natjecateljske uspješnosti sportaša na svim razinama unutar psihološkog područja u modelu MMPS i aktualne natjecateljske uspješnosti prema kriteriju FIS bodova (SLO_FIS) pokazala je psihološko područje unutar sve tri natjecateljske kategorije različito, a nije dobivena ni statistički značajna povezanost između tih varijabli i natjecateljske učinkovitosti. Prosječni rezultati po pojedinim psihološkim dimenzijama postupno rastu u funkciji sportaševe dobi; međutim, postoje neka odstupanja, što je možda posljedica još nedovoljno razvijene i nestabilne psihološke strukture. Praćenje prosječnih rezultata potencijalne natjecateljske uspješnosti u terminima psiholoških varijabli s obzirom na dobne kategorije ukazuje na pravilan, očekivani razvojni trend u psihološkom oblikovanju cross-country skijaša. Na razini dugoročnih pozicijskih konfiguracija glavni je cilj transformacijskog procesa postići vrhunski sportski status u muškoj seniorskoj kategoriji. Transformacija numeričkih vrijednosti u atribute omogućuje percepciju vrhunskog (top level) sportaša i kod ostalih natjecateljskih kategorija (mlađih i starijih) te olakšava usporedbu između subjektivnog rezultata (instruktorovog) i rezultata na bilo kojoj varijabli iz modela. Stoga drugi mogu govoriti o skijašu trkaču kritički, ali on/ona može pratiti trendove vlastitog razvoja na nepristran način. Ova je metoda također pogodna za brzu i kvalitetnu korekciju trenažnih programa. Zaključak Evaluacija psiholoških dimenzija psihosomatskog statusa skijaša trkača trebala bi baciti više svjetla na varijabilni dio uspješnosti u ovom sportu. Ipak, te su relacije vrlo složene, pa je donošenje generaliziranih zaključaka na temelju dobivenih trendova i povezanosti između elementarnih i skupnih, izvedenih varijabli nepouzdano, metodološki i uopće. Vjerojatno ne postoji niti jedna motorička reakcija koja ne bi nekako korelirala s nizom nekih psiholoških dimenzija. Pitanje je što jest povezanost između tih varijabli i koliko njihova varijabilnost pridonosi toj psihološkoj strukturi. Stoga, usprkos tvrdnji o povezanosti i neodvojivosti psiholoških osobina i kvaliteta, trebalo bi se zadovoljiti analitičkim pristupom istraživanju ovih dimenzija koje olakšavaju i opravdavaju predikciju natjecateljske uspješnosti u skijaškom trčanju