Disease Ecology in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Integration of Spatial Analysis and Population Surveillance

In countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that have limited public health infrastructures, only educated guesses have been made about the spatial distribution of important diseases. This research estimates the spatial distribution of HIV, malaria and anemia prevalence in the DRC, and determines the population, environmental and behavioral drivers underlying these distributions. Using molecular diagnostics from dried blood spots from a 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and demographic data available from this survey, the primary research aims are addressed via spatial analysis and multilevel modeling. The creation of an extensive Geographic Information Systems (GIS) database and selection of individual questionnaire responses is informed by disease ecology theory. In addition to discerning patterns and drivers of disease prevalence in the DRC, this research demonstrates how well population-representative surveillance data can be used to improve understanding of disease transmission in other developing countries. While older people were at greater risk for HIV and anemia, younger people were at greater risk for malaria. Individual wealth increased HIV risk, while it protected against malaria. Increased risk for anemia was found in certain cultural groups. Living near urban areas increased risk for HIV and decreased risk for malaria. Certain types of agriculture were protective against anemia. Greater density of nearby conflict since 1994 decreased malaria risk and proximity to a refugee camp was protective against anemia in women. Certain population characteristics and behaviors were equally or more important at the community level as at the individual level. Greater individual wealth was protective against malaria along with the average wealth of the community in which one lived. This research extends beyond the scope of what would have been possible with the DHS dataset alone. The molecular results for malaria parasitaemia as well as habitat data from a variety of sources contributed to the creation of a complex database which enabled all aspects of disease ecology to be explored

Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

Background: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principle Findings: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence

Non-Markovian dynamics of interacting qubit pair coupled to two independent bosonic baths

The dynamics of two interacting spins coupled to separate bosonic baths is studied. An analytical solution in Born approximation for arbitrary spectral density functions of the bosonic environments is found. It is shown that in the non-Markovian cases concurrence "lives" longer or reaches greater values.Comment: 13 page

Diarrheal disease risk in rural Bangladesh decreases as tubewell density increases: a zero-inflated and geographically weighted analysis

Abstract Background This study investigates the impact of tubewell user density on cholera and shigellosis events in Matlab, Bangladesh between 2002 and 2004. Household-level demographic, health, and water infrastructure data were incorporated into a local geographic information systems (GIS) database. Geographically-weighted regression (GWR) models were constructed to identify spatial variation of relationships across the study area. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were run to simultaneously measure the likelihood of increased magnitude of disease events and the likelihood of zero cholera or shigellosis events. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of tubewell density on both the occurrence of diarrheal disease and the magnitude of diarrheal disease incidence. Results In Matlab, households with greater tubewell density were more likely to report zero cholera or shigellosis events. Results for both cholera and shigellosis GWR models suggest that tubewell density effects are spatially stationary and the use of non-spatial statistical methods is appropriate. Conclusions Increasing the amount of drinking water available to households through increased density of tubewells contributed to lower reports of cholera and shigellosis events in rural Bangladesh. Our findings demonstrate the importance of tubewell installation and access to groundwater in reducing diarrheal disease events in the developing world

Spatial and social factors drive anemia in Congolese women

Anemia is common in women of child-bearing age in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As part of the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), 4,638 women of childbearing age (including 526 pregnant women) were tested for HIV and had the hemoglobin content of their blood recorded. We assessed malaria prevalence using laboratory methods. The DHS provided extensive information for individuals, as well as household cluster coordinates which enabled us to derive several spatial variables. Multilevel analyses were conducted to determine individual and contextual risk factors for anemia. Prevalence varied geographically and was associated with both one's ethnic group and the amount and type of nearby agriculture. In contrast, prevalence was not affected by HIV or malaria status

Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. CONCLUSION: The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work

Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations. METHODS: Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. RESULTS: Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation

Geographical variation in \u3ci\u3ePlasmodium vivax\u3c/i\u3e relapse

Background: Plasmodium vivax has the widest geographic distribution of the human malaria parasites and nearly 2.5 billion people live at risk of infection. The control of P. vivax in individuals and populations is complicated by its ability to relapse weeks to months after initial infection. Strains of P. vivax from different geographical areas are thought to exhibit varied relapse timings. In tropical regions strains relapse quickly (three to six weeks), whereas those in temperate regions do so more slowly (six to twelve months), but no comprehensive assessment of evidence has been conducted. Here observed patterns of relapse periodicity are used to generate predictions of relapse incidence within geographic regions representative of varying parasite transmission. Methods: A global review of reports of P. vivax relapse in patients not treated with a radical cure was conducted. Records of time to first P. vivax relapse were positioned by geographic origin relative to expert opinion regions of relapse behaviour and epidemiological zones. Mixed-effects meta-analysis was conducted to determine which geographic classification best described the data, such that a description of the pattern of relapse periodicity within each region could be described. Model outputs of incidence and mean time to relapse were mapped to illustrate the global variation in relapse. Results: Differences in relapse periodicity were best described by a historical geographic classification system used to describe malaria transmission zones based on areas sharing zoological and ecological features. Maps of incidence and time to relapse showed high relapse frequency to be predominant in tropical regions and prolonged relapse in temperate areas. Conclusions: The results indicate that relapse periodicity varies systematically by geographic region and are categorized by nine global regions characterized by similar malaria transmission dynamics. This indicates that relapse may be an adaptation evolved to exploit seasonal changes in vector survival and therefore optimize transmission. Geographic patterns in P. vivax relapse are important to clinicians treating individual infections, epidemiologists trying to infer P. vivax burden, and public health officials trying to control and eliminate the disease in human populations

Geographical variation in \u3ci\u3ePlasmodium vivax\u3c/i\u3e relapse

Background: Plasmodium vivax has the widest geographic distribution of the human malaria parasites and nearly 2.5 billion people live at risk of infection. The control of P. vivax in individuals and populations is complicated by its ability to relapse weeks to months after initial infection. Strains of P. vivax from different geographical areas are thought to exhibit varied relapse timings. In tropical regions strains relapse quickly (three to six weeks), whereas those in temperate regions do so more slowly (six to twelve months), but no comprehensive assessment of evidence has been conducted. Here observed patterns of relapse periodicity are used to generate predictions of relapse incidence within geographic regions representative of varying parasite transmission. Methods: A global review of reports of P. vivax relapse in patients not treated with a radical cure was conducted. Records of time to first P. vivax relapse were positioned by geographic origin relative to expert opinion regions of relapse behaviour and epidemiological zones. Mixed-effects meta-analysis was conducted to determine which geographic classification best described the data, such that a description of the pattern of relapse periodicity within each region could be described. Model outputs of incidence and mean time to relapse were mapped to illustrate the global variation in relapse. Results: Differences in relapse periodicity were best described by a historical geographic classification system used to describe malaria transmission zones based on areas sharing zoological and ecological features. Maps of incidence and time to relapse showed high relapse frequency to be predominant in tropical regions and prolonged relapse in temperate areas. Conclusions: The results indicate that relapse periodicity varies systematically by geographic region and are categorized by nine global regions characterized by similar malaria transmission dynamics. This indicates that relapse may be an adaptation evolved to exploit seasonal changes in vector survival and therefore optimize transmission. Geographic patterns in P. vivax relapse are important to clinicians treating individual infections, epidemiologists trying to infer P. vivax burden, and public health officials trying to control and eliminate the disease in human populations

GSK3β inhibition blocks melanoma cell/host interactions by downregulating N-cadherin expression and decreasing FAK phosphorylation.

This study addresses the role of glycogen synthase kinase (GSK)-3β signaling in the tumorigenic behavior of melanoma. Immunohistochemical staining revealed GSK3β to be focally expressed in the invasive portions of 12 and 33% of primary and metastatic melanomas, respectively. GSK3 inhibitors and small interfering RNA (siRNA) knockdown of GSK3β were found to inhibit the motile behavior of melanoma cells in scratch wound, three-dimensional collagen-implanted spheroid, and modified Boyden chamber assays. Functionally, inhibition of GSK3β signaling was found to suppress N-cadherin expression at the messenger RNA and protein levels, and was associated with decreased expression of the transcription factor Slug. Pharmacological and genetic ablation of GSK3β signaling inhibited the adhesion of melanoma cells to both endothelial cells and fibroblasts and prevented transendothelial migration, an effect rescued by the forced overexpression of N-cadherin. A further role for GSK3β signaling in invasion was suggested by the ability of GSK3β inhibitors and siRNA knockdown to block phosphorylation of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) and increase the size of focal adhesions. In summary, we have, to our knowledge, demonstrated a previously unreported role for GSK3β in modulating the motile and invasive behavior of melanoma cells through N-cadherin and FAK. These studies suggest the potential therapeutic utility of inhibiting GSK3β in defined subsets of melanoma