The potential impact of the fiscal transfers under the EU Cohesion Policy Programme

The European Union uses large-scale fiscal transfers to national and regional levels to foster economic and social cohesion. This paper gives an ex-ante model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impact of these fiscal transfers between member states as planned under the Cohesion Policy programme 2007-2013. The simulations show the costs and benefits of Structural Funds spending on beneficiary and donor countries in the EU. The increase in public investment has positive externalities and yields significant output gains in the long run due to sizeable productivity improvements. In the short run it can lead to crowding out of private spending.Fiscal transfers, Structural Funds, Cohesion Policy, public investment, in 't Veld

A model-based assessment of the macroeconomic impact of EU structural funds on the new Member States

This paper gives a model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impact of European Union Structural and Cohesion Funds payments on the economies of the new Member States. The model used is a four-region DSGE model with human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change. The framework that we adopt is the Jones (2005) extension of the endogenous growth model, which uses a variety approach for modelling knowledge investment. The EU funds average around 1.5 percent of GDP and are used for investment in infrastructure, human capital and R&D. The model simulations show this can lead to significant gains in output, both in the short as well as in the long run.Fiscal transfers, Structural Funds, public investment, DSGE modelling, Varga, in 't Veld

QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model

QUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the Member States of the European Union and their interaction with the rest of the world. The paper presents a new version of the QUEST model which is now considerably modified with respect to its theoretical structure. It first presents a model description for the following sectors: household behaviour, firm behaviour and government. Then, it proposes the markets and prices equations. The second section contains standard simulations. It first considers monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks, then an example of a productivity shock.II/511/97-ENQUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the member states of the European Union and their interactions with the rest of the world, especially with the United States and Japan. The focus of the model is on the transmission of the effects of economic policy both on the domestic and the international economy. The model was primarily constructed to serve as a tool for policy simulation; less emphasis was put on its ability to serve as a forecasting tool. Given the wide coverage of the model it must necessarily be highly aggregated. A high degree of aggregation and foundation of the specification in current macroeconomic theory also helps in interpreting and understanding the results of the simulations. Finally simplicity also facilitates the solution of the model and reduces the time and memory requirements of the computer-simulations. The new model contains structural models for the EU member states, the US and Japan and distinguishes 10 additional countries/regions in trade feedback models in order to model trade interactions with the rest of the world.Compared to the former version of the QUEST model, which was presented in European Economy No. 47 (1991), the new model is now considerably modified with respect to its theoretical structure. The previous version of QUEST was deeply rooted in the Keynesian tradition of econometric model building, strongly stressing the demand side of the economy and modelling consumer and investment behaviour in a backward looking fashion. In the new version an attempt was made to base the behavioural equations more strongly on principles of dynamic optimisation of private households and firms. That makes the model substantially more forward looking. Also the supply side is now more explicitly modelled. The present model is also closed with respect to stock-flow interactions. Those stock variables which can be identified on a macroeconomic level such as physical capital, net foreign assets, money and government debt are endogenously determined and wealth effects are allowed to influence savings, production and investment decisions of private households, firms and the government. Moreover, financial linkages between national economies are now more explicitly modelled. In the current version it is assumed that assets determined in different currencies are perfect substitutes - up to an exogenous risk premium. Consistent modelling of international trade and financial linkages also require that at each instant two adding-up constraints hold: trade balances and net foreign asset positions sum to zero. Also the long run properties of the model are now systematically explored.Apart from simulations related to the Commission's short and medium term projections, the model has been intensively used to analyse the impact of the Maastricht criteria on growth and employment and the long run effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms in Europe (e.g. Bayar et al., 1997a). Related to this, the model was used to study the impact of monetary policy on the success of government expenditure cuts (Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997a), and the macroeconomic effects of various tax reforms (Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997b) and VAT harmonisation (Bayar, Roeger and in 't Veld, 1997). The model has also been used to assess the employment and growth effects of the Trans European Transport Networks (European Commission, 1996), while the models for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have been used to look at the macroeconomic effects of the Structural Funds (Roeger, 1996b).quest, economic cycle, modelling

Fiscal policy with credit constrained households

This paper explores the effects of discretionary fiscal policy in a DSGE model that explicitly models housing investment and allows for credit constrained households along the lines of the financial accelerator literature.The presence of credit constrained households raises the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory tax reductions and increases in transfers, and makes fiscal policy a more powerful tool for short run stabilisation. Fiscal policy is more effective when credit constraints increase, when measures are temporary, and when monetary policy is accommodative.This is a timely issue in the current financial crisis which can be characterised by a substantial negative demand shock and tighter credit constraints.Fiscal Policy, Fiscal Multiplier, Government Deficits, Credit Constraint, DSGE modelling, Fiscal Policy with Credit Constrained Households, QUEST, Roeger, in 't Veld, DGSE

Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model

This paper presents a set of simulation experiments using the European Commission's QUEST model to evaluate the effects of policy impulses and permanent supply side shocks in the four major EU economies. The simulation analysis illustrates the transmission mechanisms of specific monetary and fiscal policy shocks as well as two examples of permanent supply shocks.QUEST model, supply side shocks, monetary and fiscal policy, R�ger, in 't Veld,

QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy

This paper develops a DSGE model for an open economy and estimates it on euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features nominal and real frictions, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity constrained households. The model incorporates active monetary and fiscal policy rules (for government consumption, investment, transfers and wage taxes) and can be used to analyse the effectiveness of stabilisation policies. To capture the unit root character of macroeconomic time-series we allow for stochastic trend in TFP, but instead of filtering data prior to estimation, we estimate the model in growth rates and stationary nominal ratios.QUEST, QUEST model, DGSE, DSGE modelling, fiscal policy, stabilisation policies, euro area, Ratto , Roeger , Jan in 't Veld

Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth

This paper describes the endogenous growth version of the QUEST III model and uses it to analyse the macroeconomic impact of various structural reform measures. This paper describes a micro-founded DSGE model with endogenous growth that is used to analyse the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms in Europe. The new QUEST III model is a useful tool for analysing the costs and benefits of reforms in terms of concrete and quantifiable policy measures, in particular fiscal policy instruments such as taxes, benefits, subsidies and education expenditures, administrative costs faced by firms and regulatory indices. Our results confirm the beneficial effects on output and employment of skill-biased tax reforms, measures that improve the skill composition of the labour force, R&D subsidies, raising competition in final goods market, increased financial market integration and measures that remove entry barriers in certain markets. The model also allows us to examine the adjustment path and the time lags involved before these benefits can be reaped.Structural reforms, endogenous growth, R&D, DSGE modelling, Roeger, Varga , in 't Veld, Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth

How to close the productivity gap between the US and Europe: A quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenous growth model

This paper uses a semi-endogenous growth model to identify possible sources for three interrelated stylised differences between the EU and the US, namely a higher level of productivity and knowledge investment and larger skill premia in the US compared to the EU. The model allows us to explain these differences in terms of differences in subsidies to R and D, mark ups, administrative entry barriers and financial frictions.The paper provides a ranking about the relative importance of these factors. Goods market competition and both administrative and financial entry barriers are the most important explanatory factors for lower productivity in the EU, while entry barriers explain the bulk of the knowledge investment gap and high skilled wage premia.productivity differences endogenous growth R and D market structure skill composition dynamic general equilibrium modelling Economic P how to close the productivity gap between the US a quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenou Varga Roeger in 't Veld European Economy. Economic Papers

Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US

This paper presents a DSGE model with residential investment and credit-constrained households estimated with US data over the period 1980Q1-2008Q4. In order to better understand speculative movements of house prices, we model land as an exhaustible resource, implying that house prices have asset market characteristics.We conduct an event study for the US over the period 1999Q1-2008Q4 which has been characterised by a housing boom and bust and examine which shocks have contributed to the evolution of GDP and its components over this period. We devote special attention to the contribution of non-fundamental shocks to asset prices over this episode.Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bu,DSGE model,Housing,Credit constraint,collateral,Bubbles,Shocks,Ratto,Roeger,in 't Veld,European Economy. Economic Papers

Synthesis of biodegradable polyesteramides with pendant functional groups

Morpholine-2,5-dione derivatives having substituents with benzyl-protected carboxylic acid, benzyloxycarbonyl-protected amine and p-methoxy-protected thiol groups, respectively, were prepared in 29-58% yield by cyclization of the corresponding N-[(2RS)-bromopropionyl]-L-amino acids. Polyesteramides with protected pendant functional groups were obtained by ring-opening copolymerization of either ε-caprolactone or DL-lactide with morpholine-2,5-dione derivatives having protected functional substituents. The copolymerizations were carried out in the bulk at 130°C using stannous octoate as an initiator and using low mole fractions (0,05, 0,10 and 0,20) of morpholine-2,5-dione derivatives in the feed. The molecular weight of the resulting copolymers ranged from 1,4 to 8,3 · 104. The ring-opening homopolymerization of morpho-line-2,5-dione derivatives with protected functional substituents was not successful. Polyesteramides with either pendant carboxylic acid groups or pendant amine groups were prepared by catalytic hydrogenation of the corresponding protected copolymers. Treatment of copolymers having pendant p-methoxybenzyl-protected thiol groups with trifluoromethanesulfonic acid resulted not only in the removal of the p-methoxybenzyl group but also in severe degradation of the copolymers, due to acidolysis of main-chain ester bonds