The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study

A possible impact of an extreme solar particle event (ESPE) on the middle atmosphere is studied for present-day climate and geomagnetic conditions. We consider an ESPE with an occurrence probability of about 1 per millennium. In addition, we assume that the ESPE is followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm (GMS), and we compare the contribution of the two extreme events. The strongest known and best-documented ESPE of 774/5 CE is taken as a reference example and established estimates of the corresponding ionization rates are applied. The ionization rates due to the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) during an extreme GMS are upscaled from analyzed distributions of electron energy spectra of observed GMSs. The consecutive buildup of NOx and HOx by ionization is modeled in the high-top 3D chemistry circulation model KArlsruhe SImulation Model of the middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), using specified dynamics from ERA-Interim analyses up to the stratopause. A specific dynamical situation was chosen that includes an elevated stratosphere event during January and maximizes the vertical coupling between the northern polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region and the stratosphere; it therefore allows us to estimate a maximum possible impact. The particle event initially produces about 65 Gmol of NOy, with 25 Gmol of excess NOy even after 1 year. The related ozone loss reaches up to 50 % in the upper stratosphere during the first weeks after the event and slowly descends to the mid-stratosphere. After about 1 year, 20 % ozone loss is still observed in the northern stratosphere. The GMS causes strong ozone reduction in the mesosphere but plays only a minor role in the reduction in total ozone. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the long-lived NOy in the polar stratosphere, which is produced almost solely by the ESPE, is transported into the Antarctic polar vortex, where it experiences strong denitrification into the troposphere. For this special case, we estimate a NO3 washout that could produce a measurable signal in ice cores. The reduction in total ozone causes an increase of the UV erythema dose of less than 5 %, which maximizes in spring for northern latitudes of 30∘ and in summer for northern latitudes of about 60∘

NOy_{y} production, ozone loss and changes in net radiative heating due to energetic particle precipitation in 2002–2010

We analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the stratospheric nitrogen budget, ozone abundances and net radiative heating using results from three global chemistry-climate models considering solar protons and geomagnetic forcing due to auroral or radiation belt electrons. Two of the models cover the atmosphere up to the lower thermosphere, the source region of auroral NO production. Geomagnetic forcing in these models is included by prescribed ionization rates. One model reaches up to about 80 km, and geomagnetic forcing is included by applying an upper boundary condition of auroral NO mixing ratios parameterized as a function of geomagnetic activity. Despite the differences in the implementation of the particle effect, the resulting modeled NOy in the upper mesosphere agrees well between all three models, demonstrating that geomagnetic forcing is represented in a consistent way either by prescribing ionization rates or by prescribing NOy at the model top. Compared with observations of stratospheric and mesospheric NOy from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument for the years 2002–2010, the model simulations reproduce the spatial pattern and temporal evolution well. However, after strong sudden stratospheric warmings, particle-induced NOy is underestimated by both high-top models, and after the solar proton event in October 2003, NOy is overestimated by all three models. Model results indicate that the large solar proton event in October 2003 contributed about 1–2 Gmol (10⁹ mol) NOy per hemisphere to the stratospheric NOy budget, while downwelling of auroral NOx from the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere contributes up to 4 Gmol NOy . Accumulation over time leads to a constant particle-induced background of about 0.5–1 Gmol per hemisphere during solar minimum, and up to 2 Gmol per hemisphere during solar maximum. Related negative anomalies of ozone are predicted by the models in nearly every polar winter, ranging from 10–50% during solar maximum to 2–10% during solar minimum. Ozone loss continues throughout polar summer after strong solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere and after large sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere. During mid-winter, the ozone loss causes a reduction of the infrared radiative cooling, i.e., a positive change of the net radiative heating (effective warming), in agreement with analyses of geomagnetic forcing in stratospheric temperatures which show a warming in the late winter upper stratosphere. In late winter and spring, the sign of the net radiative heating change turns to negative (effective cooling). This spring-time cooling lasts well into summer and continues until the following autumn after large solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere, and after sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere

Impact of chlorine ion chemistry on ozone loss in the middle atmosphere during very large solar proton events

Solar coronal mass ejections can accelerate charged particles, mostly protons, to high energies, causing solar proton events (SPEs). Such energetic particles can precipitate upon the Earth's atmosphere, mostly in polar regions because of geomagnetic shielding. Here, SPE-induced chlorine activation due to ion chemistry can occur, and the activated chlorine depletes ozone in the polar middle atmosphere. We use the state-of-the-art 1D stacked-box Exoplanetary Terrestrial Ion Chemistry (ExoTIC) model of atmospheric ion and neutral composition to investigate such events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The Halloween SPE that occurred in late October 2003 is used as a test field for our study. This event has been extensively studied before using different 3D models and satellite observations. Our main purpose is to use such a large event that has been recorded by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) to evaluate the performance of the ion chemistry model. Sensitivity tests were carried out for different model settings with a focus on the chlorine species of HOCl and ClONO as well as O and reactive nitrogen, NOy. The model simulations were performed in the Northern Hemisphere at a high latitude of 67.5 N, inside the polar cap. Comparison of the simulated effects against MIPAS observations for the Halloween SPE revealed rather good temporal agreement, also in terms of altitude range for HOCl, O and NOy. For ClONO, good agreement was found in terms of altitude range. The model showed ClONO enhancements after the peak of the event. The best model setting was the one with full ion chemistry where O(1D) was set to photo-chemical equilibrium. HOCl and ozone changes are very well reproduced by the model, especially for nighttime. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions, resulting in an increase of more than 0.2 ppbv. Further, ClONO enhancements of 0.2-0.3 ppbv have been observed during both daytime and nighttime. Model settings that compared best with MIPAS observations were applied to an extreme solar event that occurred in AD 775, presumably once in a 1000-year event. With the model applied to this scenario, an assessment can be made about what is to be expected at worst for the effects of a SPE on the middle atmosphere, concentrating on the effects of ion chemistry compared to crude parameterizations. Here, a systematic analysis comparing the impact of the Halloween SPE and the extreme event on the Earth's middle atmosphere is presented. As seen from the model simulations, both events were able to perturb the polar stratosphere and mesosphere with a high production of NOy and HOx. Longer-lasting and stronger stratospheric ozone loss was seen for the extreme event. A qualitative difference between the two events and a long-lasting impact on HOCl and HCl for the extreme event were found. Chlorine ion chemistry contributed to stratospheric ozone losses of 2.4 % for daytime and 10 % for nighttime during the Halloween SPE, as seen with time-dependent ionization rates applied to the model. Furthermore, while comparing the Halloween SPE and the extreme scenario, with ionization rate profiles applied just for the event day, the inclusion of chlorine ion chemistry added ozone losses of 10 % and 20 % respectively. © Author(s) 2023This research has been supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under project grant no. 1088/7-1. The AISstorm model is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG project grant no. WI4417/2-1). The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

Impact of chlorine ion chemistry on ozone loss in the middle atmosphere during very large solar proton events

Solar coronal mass ejections can accelerate charged particles, mostly protons, to high energies, causing solar proton events (SPEs). Such energetic particles can precipitate upon the Earth\u27s atmosphere, mostly in polar regions because of geomagnetic shielding. Here, SPE-induced chlorine activation due to ion chemistry can occur, and the activated chlorine depletes ozone in the polar middle atmosphere. We use the state-of-the-art 1D stacked-box Exoplanetary Terrestrial Ion Chemistry (ExoTIC) model of atmospheric ion and neutral composition to investigate such events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The Halloween SPE that occurred in late October 2003 is used as a test field for our study. This event has been extensively studied before using different 3D models and satellite observations. Our main purpose is to use such a large event that has been recorded by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) to evaluate the performance of the ion chemistry model. Sensitivity tests were carried out for different model settings with a focus on the chlorine species of HOCl and ClONO2 as well as O3 and reactive nitrogen, NOy. The model simulations were performed in the Northern Hemisphere at a high latitude of 67.5∘ N, inside the polar cap. Comparison of the simulated effects against MIPAS observations for the Halloween SPE revealed rather good temporal agreement, also in terms of altitude range for HOCl, O3 and NOy. For ClONO2, good agreement was found in terms of altitude range. The model showed ClONO2 enhancements after the peak of the event. The best model setting was the one with full ion chemistry where O(1D) was set to photo-chemical equilibrium. HOCl and ozone changes are very well reproduced by the model, especially for nighttime. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions, resulting in an increase of more than 0.2 ppbv. Further, ClONO2 enhancements of 0.2–0.3 ppbv have been observed during both daytime and nighttime. Model settings that compared best with MIPAS observations were applied to an extreme solar event that occurred in AD 775, presumably once in a 1000-year event. With the model applied to this scenario, an assessment can be made about what is to be expected at worst for the effects of a SPE on the middle atmosphere, concentrating on the effects of ion chemistry compared to crude parameterizations. Here, a systematic analysis comparing the impact of the Halloween SPE and the extreme event on the Earth\u27s middle atmosphere is presented. As seen from the model simulations, both events were able to perturb the polar stratosphere and mesosphere with a high production of NOy and HOx. Longer-lasting and stronger stratospheric ozone loss was seen for the extreme event. A qualitative difference between the two events and a long-lasting impact on HOCl and HCl for the extreme event were found. Chlorine ion chemistry contributed to stratospheric ozone losses of 2.4 % for daytime and 10 % for nighttime during the Halloween SPE, as seen with time-dependent ionization rates applied to the model. Furthermore, while comparing the Halloween SPE and the extreme scenario, with ionization rate profiles applied just for the event day, the inclusion of chlorine ion chemistry added ozone losses of 10 % and 20 % respectively

Analysis of Particle Precipitation and Development of the Atmospheric Ionization Module OSnabrück - AIMOS

The goal of this thesis is to improve our knowledge on energetic particle precipitation into the Earth’s atmosphere from the thermosphere to the surface. The particles origin from the Sun or from temporarily trapped populations inside the magnetosphere. The best documented influence of solar (high-) energetic particles on the atmosphere is the Ozone depletion in high latitudes, attributed to the generation of HOx and NOx by precipitating particles (Crutzen et al., 1975; Solomon et al., 1981; Reid et al., 1991). In addition Callis et al. (1996b, 2001) and Randall et al. (2005, 2006) point out the importance of low-energetic precipitating particles of magnetospheric origin, creating NOx in the lower thermosphere, which may be transported downwards where it also contributes to Ozone depletion. The incoming particle flux is dramatically changing as a function of auroral/geomagnetical activity and in particular during solar particle events. As a result, the degree of ionization and the chemical composition of the atmosphere are substantially affected by the state of the Sun. Therefore the direct energetic or dynamical influences of ions on the upper atmosphere depend on solar variability at different time scales. Influences on chemistry have been considered so far with simplified precipitation patterns, limited energy range and restrictions to certain particle species, see e.g. Jackman et al. (2000); Sinnhuber et al. (2003b, for solar energetic protons and no spatial differentiation), and Callis et al. (1996b, 2001, for magnetospheric electrons only). A comprehensive atmospheric ionization model with spatially resolved particle precipitation including a wide energy range and all main particle species as well as a dynamic magnetosphere was missing. In the scope of this work, a 3-D precipitation model of solar and magnetospheric particles has been developed. Temporal as well as spatial ionization patterns will be discussed. Apart from that, the ionization data are used in different climate models, allowing (a) simulations of NOx and HOx formation and transport, (b) comparisons to incoherent scatter radar measurements and (c) inter-comparison of the chemistry part in different models and comparison of model results to MIPAS observations. In a bigger scope the ionization data may be used to better constrain the natural sources of climate change or consequences for atmospheric dynamics due to local temperature changes by precipitating particles and their implications for chemistry. Thus the influence of precipitating energetic particles on the composition and dynamics of the atmosphere is a challenging issue in climate modeling. The ionization data is available online and can be adopted automatically to any user specific model grid

The Atmospheric Ionization during Substorm Model (AISstorm 2.1)

AISstorm derives the global atmospheric ionization due to particle precipitation based on in-situ particle measurements. The model covers auroral precipitation as well as solar particle events on an altitude range of about 250km down to 16km for protons and down to 70km for electrons. Alpha particle ionization is included as well but on a smaller altitude range. The overall structure splits up into an empirical model that determines the 2D precipitating particle flux and a numerical model that determines the ionization profile of single particles. The combination of these two results in a high resolution 3D particle ionization rate pattern. The AISstorm is the successor of the Atmospheric Ionization Module Osnabrück (AIMOS). The main benefit of the updated ionization rates are higher dynamics during substorms and during the onset of geomagnetic storms in particular in the mesosphere - in agreement with observations. The internal structure of the model has been completely revised in AISstorm with the main aspects being: a) an internal magnetic coordinate system, b) including substorms characteristics, c) higher time resolution, d) higher spatial resolution, e) energy specific separate handling of auroral precipitation, polar cap precipitation and crosstalk affected areas, f) better MLT resolution. The contribution will compare the new ionization rates to AIMOS 1.6, AISstorm 2.0 and the HEPPA III multi-model study

Polar particle flux distribution and its spatial extent

Context: The main challenge in atmospheric ionisation modelling is that sparse measurements are used to derive a global precipitation pattern. Typically this requires intense interpolation or scaling of long-term average maps. In some regions however, the particle flux might be similar and a combination of these regions would not limit the results even though it would dramatically improve the spatial and temporal data coverage. Aims: The paper intends to statistically analyse the particle flux distribution close to the geomagnetic poles labelled as Polar Particle Flux Distribution (PPFD) and identify similar distributions in neighbouring bins. Those bins are grouped and the size of the PPFD area is estimated. The benefit is that single measurements within the PPFD area should be able to represent the particle flux for the whole area at a given time. Methods: We use spatially binned energetic particle flux distributions measured by POES and Metop spacecraft during 2001–2018 to identify a Kp-dependent area with a similar flux distribution as the one found close to the geomagnetic poles (|magn.lat| > 86°). First, the particle flux is mapped on a magnetic local time (MLT) vs. magnetic latitude grid. In the second step, the gridded data is split up according to Kp levels (forming the final bins). Third, the particle flux in every bin has been recalculated in order to replace zero-count rates with rates based on longer measurement periods which results in a more realistic low flux end of the particle distribution. Then the binned flux distributions are compared to the PPFD. A “Δ-test” indicates the similarity. A threshold for the Δ-test is defined using the standard deviation of Δ-test values inside the (|magn.lat| > 86°) area. Bins that meet the threshold are attributed as PPFD area. Results: PPFDs and the corresponding PPFD areas have been determined for all investigated particle channels, covering an energy range of 154 eV–300 keV for electrons and 154 eV–2.5 MeV for protons. Concerning low energy channels a gradual flux increase with rising Kp has been identified. High energy channels show a combination of background population and solar particle event (SPE) population that adds up with increasing Kp. The size of the PPFD area depends on particle species, energy and geomagnetic disturbance, as well as MLT. The main findings are: a) There are small but characteristic hemispheric differences. b) Only above a certain energy threshold do the PPFD areas increase with particle energy. c) A clear enlargement with rising Kp is identified – with exceptions for very low Kp. d) The centre of the PPFD area is shifted towards midnight and moves with Kp. Asymmetries of the boundaries could be explained by auroral intensity. e) For low-energy particles the main restriction of the PPFD area seems to be the auroral precipitation

NOy production, ozone loss and changes in net radiative heating due to energetic particle precipitation in 2002-2010

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 LicenseWe analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the stratospheric nitrogen budget, ozone abundances and net radiative heating using results from three global chemistry-climate models considering solar protons and geomagnetic forcing due to auroral or radiation belt electrons. Two of the models cover the atmosphere up to the lower thermosphere, the source region of auroral NO production. Geomagnetic forcing in these models is included by prescribed ionization rates. One model reaches up to about 80 km, and geomagnetic forcing is included by applying an upper boundary condition of auroral NO mixing ratios parameterized as a function of geomagnetic activity. Despite the differences in the implementation of the particle effect, the resulting modeled NO in the upper mesosphere agrees well between all three models, demonstrating that geomagnetic forcing is represented in a consistent way either by prescribing ionization rates or by prescribing NO at the model top. Compared with observations of stratospheric and mesospheric NO from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument for the years 2002-2010, the model simulations reproduce the spatial pattern and temporal evolution well. However, after strong sudden stratospheric warmings, particle-induced NO is underestimated by both high-top models, and after the solar proton event in October 2003, NO is overestimated by all three models. Model results indicate that the large solar proton event in October 2003 contributed about 1-2 Gmol (10 mol) NO per hemisphere to the stratospheric NO budget, while downwelling of auroral NO from the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere contributes up to 4 Gmol NO. Accumulation over time leads to a constant particle-induced background of about 0.5-1 Gmol per hemisphere during solar minimum, and up to 2 Gmol per hemisphere during solar maximum. Related negative anomalies of ozone are predicted by the models in nearly every polar winter, ranging from 10-50 % during solar maximum to 2-10 % during solar minimum. Ozone loss continues throughout polar summer after strong solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere and after large sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere. During mid-winter, the ozone loss causes a reduction of the infrared radiative cooling, i.e., a positive change of the net radiative heating (effective warming), in agreement with analyses of geomagnetic forcing in stratospheric temperatures which show a warming in the late winter upper stratosphere. In late winter and spring, the sign of the net radiative heating change turns to negative (effective cooling). This spring-time cooling lasts well into summer and continues until the following autumn after large solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere, and after sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere. © 2018 Author(s).Miriam Sinnhuber gratefully acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), grant VH-NG-624. Holger Nieder was funded by project ROMIC-SOLIC (01LG1219C) funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The intercomparison was initialized at the International Space Sciences Institute in Bern in 2014, during a meeting of the working group Quantifying hemispheric differences in particle forcing effects on stratospheric ozone led by Daniel R. Marsh. The authors acknowledge support by the state of Baden-Wurttemberg through bwHPC

The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere:a case study

Abstract A possible impact of an extreme solar particle event (ESPE) on the middle atmosphere is studied for present-day climate and geomagnetic conditions. We consider an ESPE with an occurrence probability of about 1 per millennium. In addition, we assume that the ESPE is followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm (GMS), and we compare the contribution of the two extreme events. The strongest known and best-documented ESPE of 774/5 CE is taken as a reference example and established estimates of the corresponding ionization rates are applied. The ionization rates due to the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) during an extreme GMS are upscaled from analyzed distributions of electron energy spectra of observed GMSs. The consecutive buildup of NOx and HOx by ionization is modeled in the high-top 3D chemistry circulation model KArlsruhe SImulation Model of the middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), using specified dynamics from ERA-Interim analyses up to the stratopause. A specific dynamical situation was chosen that includes an elevated stratosphere event during January and maximizes the vertical coupling between the northern polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region and the stratosphere; it therefore allows us to estimate a maximum possible impact. The particle event initially produces about 65 Gmol of NOy, with 25 Gmol of excess NOy even after 1 year. The related ozone loss reaches up to 50 % in the upper stratosphere during the first weeks after the event and slowly descends to the mid-stratosphere. After about 1 year, 20 % ozone loss is still observed in the northern stratosphere. The GMS causes strong ozone reduction in the mesosphere but plays only a minor role in the reduction in total ozone. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the long-lived NOy in the polar stratosphere, which is produced almost solely by the ESPE, is transported into the Antarctic polar vortex, where it experiences strong denitrification into the troposphere. For this special case, we estimate a NO₃ washout that could produce a measurable signal in ice cores. The reduction in total ozone causes an increase of the UV erythema dose of less than 5 %, which maximizes in spring for northern latitudes of 30∘ and in summer for northern latitudes of about 60∘