The Broker Simulation Model in the Emission Allowances Trading Area

This paper is focused on possibilities of simulations of emission allowances trading within the EU emission trading system using new designed broker simulation model which integrates different original soft computing and decision making methods. Firstly, the paper presents the background of the EU emissions trading system and an overview of different methods used in current research connected with CO2 emission allowances trading. The key part of the paper focuses on the broker simulation model creation and application. The results are based on expert systems with fuzzy rule bases, nonlinear fuzzy rule based predictors and fuzzy rule based behavior modelling. The application part of the results has been performed in Matlab. The broker simulation model is able to make decisions connected with the traded amount, price of allowances and buy/sell actions within the time on the market. Keywords: EU ETS; Fuzzy modelling; Broker JEL Classifications: C44; Q48; Q5