Introduction: Foresight in International Development

This article introduces this special issue of the IDS Bulletin on Foresight in International Development. It argues that foresight should be at the centre of development studies, and suggests two reasons why this is not the case. The four-year Institute of Development Studies research stream on foresight in policy-oriented research is introduced, as are the articles that make up this issue of the IDS Bulletin

Patterns of Engagement with Youth Savings Groups in Four African Countries

This report details findings of research undertaken under the Banking on Change Academic Partnership, which was established in 2014 between the Banking on Change (BoC) programme (a partnership of Plan UK, CARE International UK and Barclays Bank) and the Institute of Development Studies (IDS). The research sought to identify and explore different patterns of engagement with the programme’s youth savings groups, and how those patterns relate to members’ socio-economic characteristics, income-generating activities, and the training they had received. BoC, whose last phase focused on youth savings groups and ran from 2013 to 2015, operated in seven countries: Egypt, Ghana, India, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. Field work took place between April and August 2015 in Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Ghana. The research team engaged with two savings groups in each country. Information was gathered through group discussions, 57 detailed interviews with individual savings group members, and analysis of individuals’ savings and borrowing activities as recorded in ledger books and passbooks. The strategy used for identifying savings groups and group members for interview was not meant to yield a representative sample of BoC participants, but rather to capture the range of savings and borrowing patterns

Revolution Reconsidered: Evolving Perspectives on Livestock Production and Consumption

Over the last two decades much has been written about the on-going re-structuring of the global food system and its regional, national and local manifestations (McMichael 1993; Goss et al. 2000; Busch and Bain 2004; Konefal et al. 2005; Thompson and Scoones 2009). Often associated with processes of globalisation and driven by corporate interests, this restructuring is evident in both incremental and radical transitions in relation to scale, concentration, governance, sourcing strategies and technology. In some places these changes have engendered a degree of resistance in the form of new interest in ‘local food’, quality, social and environmental certification, provenance and food sovereignty. These transitions have had and will continue to have important implications for rural livelihoods, poverty, food security, social justice and the environment in both the developed and developing worlds. Like other parts of the food system, the production, processing, distribution, sale and consumption of meat and livestock products have been affected by these processes of restructuring. With a particular focus on the developing world, ongoing and projected transitions in the consumption and production of livestock products have been termed the ‘Livestock Revolution’ (LR) (Delgado et al. 1999c). In a nutshell the LR highlights accelerated growth in demand for livestock products in parts of the developing world, tied to human population growth, rising incomes, continuing urbanisation and changing food preferences. The notion of the LR – with its promise of diet diversity, better nutrition and health, and also economic opportunities for small-scale producers – is one of the most powerful ideas to emerge in the areas of food, nutrition and agricultural development over the last decade. This paper takes a critical look at the state of the debate around the LR, with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. In the next section we explore the argument as it was originally put forward. We then trace how this has been developed and critiqued in the 15 years since it was first presented. The last section before a brief conclusion introduces the notion of pathways as developed by the STEPS Centre, and argues that it provides a useful lens through which to understand the poverty, social justice and sustainability implications associated with changes in the livestock sector.ESR

Quick Money and Power: Tomatoes and Livelihood Building in Rural Brong Ahafo, Ghana

This article uses the example of small?scale, labour?intensive tomato production in Brong Ahafo, Ghana to explore some prospects of young people's engagement with the agri?food sector in Africa. Although tomatoes were produced by men and women of all ages, a significant proportion of young men specialised entirely in tomato production, growing three crops per year. Tomato production met short?term capital needs for home?building, marriage, business development and adventure. Young women also engaged in tomato production, although rarely as ‘3?croppers’. A return visit examined the role agriculture played in enabling young people to achieve their earlier life and work objectives. A social?relational approach was adopted, focusing on interdependency and linked lives. Life course analysis highlights shifts that have implications for the changing way people engage in agriculture, rather than assuming that ‘one size fits all at all times’

Young People, Agriculture, and Transformation in Rural Africa: An “Opportunity Space” Approach

Over the last decade, both agriculture and young people have become increasingly prominent on African development agendas. Politicians, policymakers, and development professionals have confronted food price volatility, food insecurity, and the phenomenon of large-scale land grabs on the one hand, and the entrenched under- and unemployment among young people—the (youthful) human face of the phenomenon of jobless growth—on the other. It is perhaps not surprising that many have put two and two together, concluding that engagement in production agriculture (including crops, livestock, and fisheries) is an obvious (if not the obvious) opportunity through which to address the problem of limited economic opportunity for young people in rural areas. Associated with this view is the assumption that rural young people would be better off if they did not migrate to urban areas, thus avoiding exposure to risky and illegal behavior (sex, HIV/AIDS, drugs, crime) and potential entanglement in dangerous political activity

Foresight in International Development

This issue of the IDS Bulletin focuses on the role of foresight in policy-oriented international development research and seeks to draw attention to the opportunities and challenges associated with the wide range of foresight approaches and methods that help individuals and groups to think about and prepare for different possible futures. From its systematic origins in the private sector – where the interest was in developing strategy, understanding implications of present and future trends and events, facilitating better decision-making and improving risk management – so governments and public sector bodies subsequently embraced foresight with similar objectives. Looking to the future is – or certainly should be – at the core of development studies. While the benefit of ‘looking back to look forward’ is well recognised, foresight is more akin to ‘looking forward to look forward’. It is striking that foresight approaches and methods do not figure prominently in policy-oriented development research. Why might this be so? This IDS Bulletin suggests two possible explanations. First, most social science disciplines are more comfortable with the analysis of the past and the present than the future. Second, the model of the large, well-funded public sector foresight programme simply does not reflect the realities of much policy-oriented development research. A principle concern of this issue is whether foresight approaches and methods can be usefully integrated into small-scale, exploratory research of relevance to the international development community

Monitoring and Evaluation Report: Year 3

This is a brief report on the developments and use of the monitoring and evaluation system within the Institute of Development Studies’ Accountable Grant (AG). In its third consecutive year, the AG operates under an established system with seven key Outputs (six key policy themes and one policy response and evaluation output), 20 Sub-themes, 68 Activity Domains, and over 350 planned and supplemental Level 2 Outputs (or Policy Products).UK Department for International Developmen

Heifer-in-trust, Social Protection and Graduation: Conceptual Issues and Research Questions

The imagery of movement is deeply engrained in development discourse, and particularly in relation to poverty: we commonly talk, for example, of people moving ‘out of poverty’ or ‘up the asset ladder’. Nevertheless, these simple images hide what are now widely understood to be complex, non-linear and dynamic processes that are impacted by a bewildering array of factors from human agency and policy to the structure of the global economy and natural disasters. It is within this context that the potential role and contribution of social protection to poverty reduction must be understood.DfI