Exit polling and racial bloc voting: Combining individual-level and R×\timesC ecological data

Despite its shortcomings, cross-level or ecological inference remains a necessary part of some areas of quantitative inference, including in United States voting rights litigation. Ecological inference suffers from a lack of identification that, most agree, is best addressed by incorporating individual-level data into the model. In this paper we test the limits of such an incorporation by attempting it in the context of drawing inferences about racial voting patterns using a combination of an exit poll and precinct-level ecological data; accurate information about racial voting patterns is needed to assess triggers in voting rights laws that can determine the composition of United States legislative bodies. Specifically, we extend and study a hybrid model that addresses two-way tables of arbitrary dimension. We apply the hybrid model to an exit poll we administered in the City of Boston in 2008. Using the resulting data as well as simulation, we compare the performance of a pure ecological estimator, pure survey estimators using various sampling schemes and our hybrid. We conclude that the hybrid estimator offers substantial benefits by enabling substantive inferences about voting patterns not practicably available without its use.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS353 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Further Empirical Investigation into the Semantic Meaning of Advertising Price References

Abstract – This study extends a well-known investigation of the meaning to consumers of commonly used comparative advertising pricing claims (e.g. “compare at”) by employing a broader demographic representation of respondents than the student sample which was used in the original research. Large and statistically significant differences were found between the two groups of respondents yet the main implications for practitioners remain the same

A Further Empirical Investigation into “Up To” Advertising Claims: The “As Low As” Claim

For many years the Federal Trade Commission has sought to prevent deceptive advertising under Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act. The FTC’s focus has encompassed not only false advertising claims, but also advertising claims that, while literally true, tend to deceive consumers. “Up to” claims fall under this scrutiny since they can be misunderstood as promising consumer benefits (e.g. “up to 50% savings”) that might not be realized by all consumers. This paper presents the results of research conducted with 600+ members of a commercial consumer panel to evaluate a variant of this type of claim, the “As Low As” claim, and to extend prior research by examining how interpretation of the claim varies with audience characteristics. Implications for advertising practitioners are discussed

Phenotypic Plasticity of Reproduction in Schizachyrium scoparium (Poaceae) Populations in Relation to Ecological History

Genetic differentiation in reproduction in the wide-ranging Schizachyrium scoparium (Poaceae) has been demonstrated in uniform gardens. However, the fine-tuning of flowering phenology and biomass allocation in relation to spatial and temporal fluctuations in the local environment is best accomplished by plastic responses to local variability. An earlier central New Jersey study suggested that S. scoparium populations in old fields of 2 to 40 years differed in plasticity. To test this apparent effect of ecological history on the development of different levels of plasticity, genotypes were collected from high- and low-fertility sites in New Jersey (forest biome) and in Oklahoma (grassland biome). Three greenhouse experiments manipulating light and nutrients were used to partition variation into genetic and environmental components. High light or high nutrients resulted in plasticity for increased biomass, greater reproductive allocation, and more tillers. Earlier flowering was induced by high light, but nutrient treatments had no effect. Populations were more likely to differ in plasticity across regions than within regions, and Oklahoma populations were consistently more plastic than New Jersey populations. In response to nutrients, populations from high-nutrient sites were often more plastic than those from low-nutrient sites. There were fewer differences in plasticity in response to light between high- and low-nutrient populations. The greater plasticity in Oklahoma populations is suggested to be the result of historically greater environmental unpredictability and K-selection factors such as density-dependent selection and greater competition for resources. A native grass population is more than just a Latin binomial. Evolutionary forces create an ecological unit unique and irreplaceable at the local level

Cognitive performance in multiple system atrophy

The cognitive performance of a group of patients with multiple system atrophy (MSA) of striato-nigral predominance was compared with that of age and IQ matched control subjects, using three tests sensitive to frontal lobe dysfunction and a battery sensitive to memory and learning deficits in Parkinson's disease and dementia of the Alzheimer type. The MSA group showed significant deficits in all three of the tests previously shown to be sensitive to frontal lobe dysfunction. Thus, a significant proportion of patients from the MSA group failed an attentional set-shifting test, specifically at the stage when an extra-dimensional shift was required. They were also impaired in a subject-ordered test of spatial working memory. The MSA group showed deficits mostly confined to measures of speed of thinking, rather than accuracy, on the Tower of London task. These deficits were seen in the absence of consistent impairments in language or visual perception. Moreover, the MSA group showed no significant deficits in tests of spatial and pattern recognition previously shown to be sensitive to patients early in the course of probable Alzheimer's disease and only a few patients exhibited impairment on the Warrington Recognition Memory Test. There were impairments on other tests of visual memory and learning relative to matched controls, but these could not easily be related to fundamental deficits of memory or learning. Thus, on a matching-to-sample task the patients were impaired at simultaneous but not delayed matching to sample, whereas difficulties in a pattern-location learning task were more evident at its initial, easier stages. The MSA group showed no consistent evidence of intellectual deterioration as assessed from their performance on subtests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS) and the National Adult Reading Test (NART). Consideration of individual cases showed that there was some heterogeneity in the pattern of deficits in the MSA group, with one patient showing no impairment, even in the face of considerable physical disability. The results show a distinctive pattern of cognitive deficits, unlike those previously seen using the same tests in patients with Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases, and suggesting a prominent frontal-lobe-like component. The implications for concepts of 'subcortical' dementia and 'fronto-striatal' cognitive dysfunction are considered

Rethinking leading: the directive, non-directive divide

There is a dearth of legal and psychological consideration of leading questions during the trial process. This article argues the current approach to leading questions does not assist or promote the accuracy of witness evidence. Witness here is taken to mean anyone giving oral testimony, whether for the prosecution, defence or indeed the defendant him or herself. We advance a revised definition of leading, differentiating between directive and non-directive questions. Directive questioning is the primary mischief to eliciting accurate witness testimony; we propose here its reform. Nondirective leading is of less concern and should be the leading form open to use in cross-examination

On the Injection Energy Distibution of Ultra-High-Energy Cosmic Rays

We investigate the injection spectrum of ultra-high-energy (>10^{15} eV) cosmic rays under the hypotheses that (1) these cosmic rays are protons and (2) the sources of these cosmic rays are extra-galactic and are homogeneously distributed in space. The most puzzling aspect of the observed ultra-high-energy cosmic ray spectrum is the apparent nonexistence of a ``Greisen cut-off'' at about 10^{19.8} eV. We show that this fact could be naturally explained if most (or all) of the cosmic rays presently observed above about 10^{19.6} eV were initially injected with energy above the Greisen cut-off. However, we find that the injection of cosmic rays above the Greisen cut-off cannot account for the observed flux below about 10^{19.6} eV unless the injection rate of these particles was enormously higher in the past, as would be the case if the injection resulted from the decay of an ultra-massive particle with lifetime of order 10^{9} yr. Even with such a rapid source evolution, the observed cosmic ray spectrum below about 10^{18.5} eV cannot be explained in this manner. However, we show that a 1/E^3 injection spectrum can account for the observed spectrum below 10^{18.5} eV}, with the steepening observed by the Fly's Eye group between 10^{17.6} eV and 10^{18.5} eV being very naturally explained by e+ - e- production effects. This latter fact lends support to the hypothesis that the cosmic rays in this energy regime are protons. However, due to e+ - e- production effects, a 1/E^3 injection spectrum cannot account for the observed flux above about 10^{18.5} eV.Comment: 23 pages, REVTeX, 5 Postscript figures available by anonymous FTP at ftp://rainbow.uchicago.edu/pub/relativity/cosmicray

MaGICC-WDM: the effects of warm dark matter in hydrodynamical simulations of disc galaxy formation

We study the effect of warm dark matter (WDM) on hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation as part of the Making Galaxies in a Cosmological Context (MaGICC) project. We simulate three different galaxies using three WDM candidates of 1, 2 and 5 keV and compare results with pure cold dark matter simulations. WDM slightly reduces star formation and produces less centrally concentrated stellar profiles. These effects are most evident for the 1 keV candidate but almost disappear for $m_{\mathrm{WDM}}>2$ keV. All simulations form similar stellar discs independent of WDM particle mass. In particular, the disc scale length does not change when WDM is considered. The reduced amount of star formation in the case of 1 keV particles is due to the effects of WDM on merging satellites which are on average less concentrated and less gas rich. The altered satellites cause a reduced starburst during mergers because they trigger weaker disc instabilities in the main galaxy. Nevertheless we show that disc galaxy evolution is much more sensitive to stellar feedback than it is to WDM candidate mass. Overall we find that WDM, especially when restricted to current observational constraints ($m_{\mathrm{WDM}}>2$ keV), has a minor impact on disc galaxy formation.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; minor clarifications added in results section, conclusions unchanged; accepted for publication in MNRA