A dynamic Norwood mortality estimation: Characterizing individual, updated, predicted mortality trajectories after the Norwood operationCentral MessagePerspective

Objective: Post-Norwood mortality remains high and unpredictable. Current models for mortality do not incorporate interstage events. We sought to determine the association of time-related interstage events, along with (pre)operative characteristics, with death post-Norwood and subsequently predict individual mortality. Methods: From the Congenital Heart Surgeons' Society Critical Left Heart Obstruction cohort, 360 neonates underwent Norwood operations from 2005 to 2016. Risk of death post-Norwood was modeled using a novel application of parametric hazard analysis, in which baseline and operative characteristics and time-related adverse events, procedures, and repeated weight and arterial oxygen saturation measurements were considered. Individual predicted mortality trajectories that dynamically update (increase or decrease) over time were derived and plotted. Results: After the Norwood, 282 patients (78%) progressed to stage 2 palliation, 60 patients (17%) died, 5 patients (1%) underwent heart transplantation, and 13 patients (4%) were alive without transitioning to another end point. In total, 3052 postoperative events occurred and 963 measures of weight and oxygen saturation were obtained. Risk factors for death included resuscitated cardiac arrest, moderate or greater atrioventricular valve regurgitation, intracranial hemorrhage/stroke, sepsis, lower longitudinal oxygen saturation, readmission, smaller baseline aortic diameter, smaller baseline mitral valve z-score, and lower longitudinal weight. Each patient's predicted mortality trajectory varied as risk factors occurred over time. Groups with qualitatively similar mortality trajectories were noted. Conclusions: Risk of death post-Norwood is dynamic and most frequently associated with time-related postoperative events and measures, rather than baseline characteristics. Dynamic predicted mortality trajectories for individuals and their visualization represent a paradigm shift from population-derived insights to precision medicine at the patient level

Textbook outcome for the Norwood operation—an informative quality metric in congenital heart surgeryCentral MessagePerspective

Objectives: To develop a more holistic measure of center performance than operative mortality, we created a composite “textbook outcome” for the Norwood operation using several postoperative end points. We hypothesized that achieving the textbook outcome would have a positive prognostic and financial impact. Methods: This was a single-center retrospective study of primary Norwood operations from 2005 to 2021. Through interdisciplinary clinician consensus, textbook outcome was defined as freedom from operative mortality, open or catheter-based reintervention, 30-day readmission, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, cardiac arrest, reintubation, length of stay >75%ile from Society of Thoracic Surgeons data report (66 days), and mechanical ventilation duration >75%ile (10 days). Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to determine predictive factors for textbook outcome achievement and association of the outcome with long-term survival, respectively. Results: Overall, 30% (58/196) of patients met the textbook outcome. Common reasons for failure to attain textbook outcome were prolonged ventilation (68/138, 49%) and reintubation (63/138, 46%). In multivariable analysis, greater weight (odds ratio [OR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-3.95; P = .02) was associated with achieving the textbook outcome whereas preoperative shock (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.13-0.87; P = .03) and longer bypass time (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-1.00; P = .002) were negatively associated. Patients who met the outcome incurred fewer hospital costs ($152,430 [141,798-177,983] vs$269,070 [212,451-372,693], P < .001), and after adjusting for patient factors, achieving textbook outcome was independently associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.22-0.89; P = .02). Conclusions: Outcomes continue to improve within congenital heart surgery, making operative mortality a less-sensitive metric. The Norwood textbook outcome may represent a balanced measure of a successful episode of care