Did the unfounded claim that Turkey was about to join the EU swing the referendum?

Even in 2016 - before Turkey's latest turn towards authoritarianism - the chances of the country joining the EU before 2030 were remote. Yet this did not prevent Vote Leave from claiming towards the end of the referendum campaign that Turkey was poised to join. This unfounded claim, writes James Ker-Lindsay (LSE), played into voters' existing worries about immigration. It may even have swung the result

Look ahead to 2017: a potential Cyprus settlement?

To mark the end of the year, we’ve asked our contributors to preview some of the possible stories of 2017. In this contribution, James Ker-Lindsay writes on the potential for a settlement to be agreed in Cyprus by the summer

Understanding state responses to secession

The response of states to acts of secession on their territory has been subject to relatively little attention in the academic literature. Drawing on the examples of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Serbia and Kosovo, and Georgia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, this article posits that there are in fact six reasons why states oppose acts of secession. These are: emotional attachment to the territory; internally displaced persons; economic factors; historical and cultural issues; fear of further secession; and national pride. Following on from this, the piece emphasises that subsequent efforts to prevent the secessionist territory from being recognised must be seen in the context of processes to resolve the situation arising from the act of secession. In some cases, this may be reunification. In others, it may be an agreed separation. At other times, it may be about leaving the door open for a military solution. In other words, opposing secession is a response to a tangible grievance. Opposing recognition is about shaping the conditions to redress that grievance. A better understanding of the specific dynamics of, and interrelationship between, these two factors would seem to be crucial for peacemakers

Serbia’s EU accession talks will be a long and difficult process: the chief negotiator should pick her battles sparingly

As of January 2014, Serbia has officially embarked on its path towards European integration. What would be the best words of advice for Tanja Miščević, Serbia’s Chief Negotiator? Dr James Ker-Lindsay, LSEE Senior Research Fellow, gives his opinion

The United Kingdom

Chapter in edited report on EU member state policies towards Kosov

There were few surprises in the European election results in Cyprus, but public discontent was apparent in the large drop in turnout

The European Parliament elections in Cyprus came a little over a year after the severe financial crisis which hit the country in 2013. James Ker-Lindsay writes that with the allocation of seats among parties remaining the same as it was in the 2009 European elections, public discontent was largely expressed through abstention rather than protest votes. Perhaps the biggest story of the campaign, however, was the participation of several Turkish Cypriot candidates, as well as the creation of special polling centres allowing Turkish Cypriot voters to take part in the election. Nevertheless, the turnout among Turkish Cypriots was exceptionally low at a little over 3 per cent

Dreams of Secession – the case of Sardinia

Theodora Vasilopoulou, a journalist at the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, asked LSEE’s Dr James Ker-Lindsay if the Canton Marittimo initiative has any chance of success – could Sardinia become the 27th canton of Switzerland? As debates on the parallels between Kosovo and Crimea continue unabated, Dr Ker-Lindsay discusses the history of contested states and the prerequisites for secession and political autonomy of a given territory