Statistical vs. Identified Lives in Benefit-Cost Analysis

Economic evaluation of projects involving changes in mortality risk conventionally assumes that lives are statistical, i.e., that risks and policy-induced changes in risk are small and similar among a population. In reality, baseline mortality risks and policy-induced changes in risk often differ among individuals although these differences are imperfectly known. We examine the effects of information about heterogeneity of risk on economic evaluation. Although social welfare (defined as aggregate expected utility) is unaffected by information about risk heterogeneity, the economic valuation of changes in risk (the sum of individual compensating or equivalent variations) is sensitive to this information. The effect of information on economic valuation and hence the outcome of a benefit-cost analysis (BCA) depends on: i) whether information is about heterogeneity of the baseline and/or change in risk, ii) whether risk is valued using willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA) measures, iii) the status quo policy, and iv) whether individuals are risk-averse or risk-neutral in wealth. We show that BCA does not systematically favor identified over statistical lives and suggest some political factors that may explain the apparent public-decision bias toward protecting identified lives.

Willingness to pay and QALYs: What can we learn about valuing foodborne risk?

This study examines the value of reducing foodborne risk. Research on the valuation of health risk has been dominated by the study of mortality risk. Foodborne risk is, however, in most cases non-fatal and this study therefore focuses on individuals' preferences for reducing morbidity risk related to food consumption. We obtain estimates of the value of a statistical case (VSC) for morbidity risk and the value of a statistical life (VSL) for mortality risk in line with previous findings in the literature. However, we also examine whether WTP is proportional to the expected change in QALYs and estimate a WTP per QALY. We find that WTP is increasing with but not proportional to the change in QALYs. Our monetary estimates are significantly higher than expected and suggest that respondents may have found it dificult to evaluate both a change in risk and health level.Contingent valuation, Food safety, QALY, Willingness to pay

Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk

We evaluate the effects of disease type and latency on willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce environmental risks of chronic, degenerative disease. Using contingent-valuation data collected from approximately 1,200 respondents in Taiwan, we find that WTP declines with latency between exposure to environmental contaminants and manifestation of any resulting disease, at a 1.5 percent annual rate for a 20 year latency period. WTP to reduce the risk of cancer is estimated to be about one-third larger than WTP to reduce risk of a similar chronic, degenerative disease. The value of risk reduction also depends on the affected organ, environmental pathway, or payment mechanism: estimated WTP to reduce the risk of lung disease due to industrial air pollution is twice as large as WTP to reduce the risk of liver disease due to contaminated drinking water.